Brazil elections 2022: Bolsonaro pulls even with Lula da Silva in South, Southeast and Midwest -PoderData poll April 24-26

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – PoderData’s poll, conducted April 24-26, 2022, shows leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and patriotic-conservative Jair Bolsonaro (PL) technically tied in 3 of the country’s 5 regions in the first round of the 2022 elections. These 3 regions account for 65% of Brazilian voters.

In the Southeast, both are at 39% of the electorate. In the South, Lula is at 41% versus 38% for the current president. And in the Center-West region, the inccumbent president comes in at 41% versus 39% for the candidate of the left. The margin of error is two percentage points higher or lower.

Read also: Check out our coverage of the general elections 2022 in Brazil

In the Northeast, the country’s second largest region, Lula leads with 49% versus 26% for Bolsonaro. In the North, the result is reversed: the patriotic-conservative candidate received 48%, while the leader of the Workers’ Party received 31%.

Overall, that is, taking into account the entire poll, Lula has 41% of voting intentions, while Bolsonaro has 36%. The gap between the two is 5 percentage points, the same as in the round 15 days earlier.

The tie between Bolsonaro and Lula in the Southeast, South and Midwest shows the tension in key electoral regions – and which together concentrate 96.1 million voters in the country (64.8% of the total), according to TSE (Supreme Electoral Tribunal) data.

The poll was conducted by PoderData, a company of the Poder360 Jornalismo group, with its own resources. Data were collected from April 24 to 26, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines.

3,000 interviews were conducted in 283 cities in the 27 states of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The registration with the TSE is BR-07167/2022.

To reach 3,000 interviews that proportionally fill out groups by gender, age, income, education, and geographic location, PoderData makes tens of thousands of calls. Often, it takes more than 100,000 calls to find respondents who represent the entire population.

GENERAL SCENARIO: 1ST ROUND.

Far behind Lula and Bolsonaro are Ciro Gomes (PDT) with 6%, João Doria (PSDB) with 4%, André Janones (Avante) with 3%, and Luciano Bivar (UB) and Simone Tebet (MDB) with 1% each.

Sofia Manzano (PCB), Leonardo Péricles (UP), Eymael (DC), Vera Lúcia (PSTU) and Luiz Felipe d’Ávila (Novo) did not receive enough mentions to reach 1%. White and invalid are 4%, while 3% could not give an answer.

STRATIFICATION

Among 16- to 24-year-olds, Lula has 52% of the electoral vote, while Bolsonaro has 33%. In the 25- to 44-year-old stratum, the current president and the PT are tied at 39% each.

Among the poorest (those earning up to two minimum wages), Lula scored 47%. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, received 45% of the vote from people earning more than 5 minimum wages.

2ND ROUND: LULA 48% X 39% BOLSONARO.

The gap between the top PT and LP candidates is 9 percentage points, the same as in the round two weeks earlier.