Brazil’s Governors Map: 20 Won Outright, Seven Runoffs
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 84.9% · Lula 14.5% (US$175 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 16%
As of 7 October, 2:20 am ET (07:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, chose governors for its 26 states and the Federal District, home of Brasília, on Sunday 4 October.
- —Why it matters Governors run Brazil’s states for four years, and winners such as São Paulo’s Tarcísio de Freitas will campaign in the presidential runoff.
- —What changed With counting finished overnight, the governors map from the TSE electoral court shows 20 states decided outright, a record under two-round voting.
- —What happened Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) won five governorships, including Paraná for ex-judge Sergio Moro; Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) won three.
- —The runoffs Seven runoffs on 25 October complete the governors map, in Rio de Janeiro, Amazonas, the Federal District and four smaller states.
- —What it means for you São Paulo, home of the B3 stock exchange, keeps its governor; Rio, base of Petrobras, faces a runoff or a court-made result.
- —Still open If the TSE confirms that Anthony Garotinho’s votes in Rio are void, Douglas Ruas would hold 50.88% and win without a runoff.
Brazil’s governors map tilts toward the centre and the right after Sunday’s election. Of the 20 governors elected outright on 4 October, 17 belong to centrist or right-leaning parties.
President Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) won the other three, all in the Northeast, according to the TSE, Brazil’s electoral court. Seven states return to the polls on Sunday 25 October, alongside the presidential runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula.
A Record Number of States Decided in the First Round
A candidate for governor needs more than half of the valid votes to win in the first round. Twenty of 27 races cleared that bar, the most since two-round voting began, the news portal Terra counted.
The previous high was 18, in 2010; in 2022 only 15 states settled their governor in the first round.
By party, the new governors map gives the PL five states and the centre-right PSD four. The conservative Republicanos and Lula’s PT took three each, the centre-right PP two, and the MDB, PSDB and Podemos one apiece.
Eight sitting governors won re-election, including Tarcísio de Freitas in São Paulo, according to the business site InvestNews.
Bolsonaro’s Party Sweeps the South as Moro Wins Paraná
Sergio Moro won Paraná with 50.10% of valid votes, or 3,127,911, just clearing the line for an outright win. He beat Sandro Alex of the PSD, on 25.37%, and Requião Filho of the centre-left PDT, on 23.47%.
Moro is the former federal judge who led the Car Wash (Lava Jato) corruption trials and sentenced Lula to prison in 2017. Brazil’s Supreme Court overturned that conviction in 2021, ruling that Moro had not acted impartially.
He later served as Jair Bolsonaro’s justice minister and joined the PL in March 2026, CNN Brasil reported. On election night he said that “o Paraná pode mais” (Paraná can do more), Gazeta do Povo reported.
The PL also won Rio Grande do Sul with Luciano Zucco (58.05%) and Santa Catarina with Jorginho Mello (68.98%). In the North it took Rondônia and Roraima.
Tarcísio Keeps São Paulo and Turns to the Runoff
The final TSE count gives Tarcísio de Freitas of the Republicanos 62.65%, or 14,491,874 votes, against 36.42% for the PT’s Fernando Haddad. The election-night count for São Paulo, Rio and Minas Gerais, published on 4 October, has the first figures.
In Minas Gerais, Brazil’s second-largest electorate, Cleitinho Azevedo of the Republicanos won with 55.40%. The two biggest southeastern states will both have conservative governors from the same party.
In his first speech after the result, Tarcísio said: “Agora, São Paulo vai ser decisivo para eleger Flávio Bolsonaro no segundo turno.” In English: “Now São Paulo is going to be decisive in electing Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round,” Estadão reported via InfoMoney.
He added, “Nós vamos derrotar o PT” (We are going to defeat the PT), a line Poder360 also recorded. CNN Brasil reported that he would travel to Brasília on Monday 5 October to plan the runoff campaign with Flávio.
The numbers explain his confidence. Flávio led Lula in São Paulo by 3,416,610 votes, more than his national lead of 2,224,965 votes, according to the TSE.
Nationally, the first-round result has Flávio on 47.03% and Lula on 45.16% of valid votes.
The Northeast: Three States for Lula’s Party, Losses Elsewhere
Lula won all nine northeastern states in the presidential vote, as the state-by-state count shows. The region’s governors map is more mixed.
In Piauí, Rafael Fonteles of the PT won 70.90%, the highest share of any governor candidate in Brazil. Jerônimo Rodrigues held Bahia for the PT with 55.80%.
In Ceará, Elmano de Freitas of the PT beat Ciro Gomes, a former governor now in the PSDB, by 53.19% to 46.22%. Brasil de Fato noted that Ciro’s coalition included the PL and that his brother, Senator Cid Gomes, backed Elmano.
In Pernambuco, Raquel Lyra of the PSD beat João Campos of the PSB, 53.27% to 44.82%. Campos, a former Recife mayor, campaigned on his ties to Lula, while Lyra stayed neutral, CartaCapital reported.
In Alagoas, JHC of the PSDB, a former mayor of Maceió, beat Renan Filho of the MDB by 52.20% to 47.37%. TSE records list the PT in Renan Filho’s coalition and the PL in JHC’s.
Eduardo Braide of the PSD, a two-term mayor of São Luís, won Maranhão with 54.02%. Paraíba went to the PP and Sergipe to the PSD.
The North and Centre-West: A Doctor Wins Pará
In Pará, the TSE lists the winner by his ballot name, Dr. Daniel, of the centrist Podemos party. He is Daniel Barbosa Santos, a physician who served two terms as mayor of Ananindeua, and he took 51.36%.
He beat Hana Ghassan of the MDB, on 46.53%; TSE records show the PL in his coalition and the PT in hers.
The PSD won Amapá, the MDB took Goiás, the Republicanos Mato Grosso and the PP Mato Grosso do Sul.
Seven Runoffs, and a Court Case That Could Cancel One
The governors map is not finished yet. In Rio de Janeiro, Douglas Ruas of the PL has 49.27% and Eduardo Paes of the PSD, a former mayor of Rio, has 42.76%.
The catch is Anthony Garotinho of the Republicanos. The TSE lists his 274,411 votes, or 3.17%, as “annulled sub judice”, frozen until a court rules.
Rio’s regional electoral court rejected his candidacy over an administrative misconduct ruling that suspended his political rights, the legal site ConJur reported. A TSE judge upheld that on 2 October, and his lawyers appealed again on Sunday, InfoMoney reported.
For now the TSE counts those votes in the total, which keeps Ruas below 50%. If the full court confirms they are void, Ruas would have 50.88% of the remaining valid votes and win without a runoff.
Amazonas also faces a second round, between Omar Aziz of the PSD (40.63%) and Professora Maria do Carmo of the PL (24.49%). Every polling station is counted, and the TSE formally closed the state’s result at 06:00 Brasília time on Monday.
Rio Grande do Norte is the tightest race in percentage terms: 0.78 points, or 15,509 votes, separate Allyson of União Brasil and the PT’s Cadu de Lula. In the Federal District, Celina Leão of the PP fell just short with 49.93% and faces the PT’s Leandro Grass.
Espírito Santo pits Lorenzo Pazolini of the Republicanos against Ricardo Ferraço of the MDB. Acre has Mailza Assis of the PP against Alan Rick of the Republicanos.
Tocantins has Professora Dorinha of União Brasil against Vicentinho Júnior of the PSDB, 45.52% to 43.94%.
What Comes Next
The full TSE must still rule on Garotinho’s appeal, which decides whether Rio votes again. All runoffs are on Sunday 25 October; the runoff guide for foreign residents covers the practical side.
Governors take office on 6 January 2027, a day after the president, under a 2021 constitutional amendment, the Senate’s news service noted.
What the governors map does not show is a simple transfer of votes. Lula won 54.73% in Alagoas and 49.91% in Pará, where coalitions including his party lost the governor’s race.
Governors can lend campaign networks, but many voters split their ballots. The presidential runoff remains open.
More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many governors did Brazil elect in the first round in 2026?
Twenty of the 27 states elected a governor outright on 4 October, a record under two-round voting. The governors map from the TSE gives Bolsonaro’s PL five states and Lula’s PT three. The other seven states hold runoffs on 25 October.
Which states have a governor runoff on 25 October?
Acre, Amazonas, the Federal District, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte and Tocantins. Until a court rules on Anthony Garotinho’s annulled votes, Rio’s runoff and the governors map remain provisional.
Who won the governor race in Paraná?
Sergio Moro of the Liberal Party won with 50.10% of valid votes. The former Car Wash judge, who sentenced Lula in 2017 in a conviction later overturned, takes office on 6 January 2027.
Why does São Paulo matter for the presidential runoff?
São Paulo has about 34.1 million registered voters, the most of any state. Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula there by 3.4 million votes, more than his national lead, and Tarcísio says the state will be decisive.
Sources: TSE governor results, 5 October 2026; TSE presidential results, 5 October 2026; InfoMoney/Estadão, 4 October 2026; Poder360, 4 October 2026; CNN Brasil (Tarcísio), 4 October 2026; CNN Brasil (Moro), 4 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo, 5 October 2026; Terra, 5 October 2026; InvestNews, 5 October 2026; Brasil de Fato, 4 October 2026; CartaCapital, 4 October 2026; Agência Brasil (Alagoas), 4 October 2026; TSE (Maranhão), 5 October 2026; Agência Brasil (Pará), 4 October 2026; Agência Brasil (Amazonas), 4 October 2026; InfoMoney (Rio), 4 October 2026; ConJur, 4 October 2026; Rádio Senado, 5 January 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief