Brazil: Economic team wants dollar at R$4.50 in April to control inflation

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil’s Economy Minister Paulo Guedes’ team is working for the dollar rate to reach R$4.50 in April this year. The main objective, team members say, is to help lower inflation in Brazil.

The diagnosis in the Ministry of Economy is that it is necessary to use the exchange rate to mitigate the rise in food prices, the main pressure factor in Brazilian inflation today, in the view of the portfolio.

The reasoning in the economic team is that, with a lower dollar exchange rate, it will be cheaper to import food from abroad, which helps reduce the prices of these items here in Brazil.

Members of Guedes’ team emphasized to the column that all recent actions adopted by the portfolio are in the direction of making the dollar rate reach R$4.50 or less in April.

Among these actions is the decree that zeroes the IOF (Tax on Financial Transactions) on exchange operations in a phased manner until 2028. Immediately, the rate for raising loans abroad has already dropped from 6% to 0%.

In the same vein, the government should publish a Provisional Measure exempting from payment of Income Tax on foreign capital gains that invest in private securities in Brazil in the coming days.

On March 23, the dollar closed the day down 1.43%, quoted at R$4.8438. It was the sixth consecutive day of decline, bringing the dollar to its lowest level since March 13, 2020 (R$4.8127).

This decline in the dollar is related to high interest rates in Brazil and the rising price of commodities globally, which strengthens the currencies of exporting countries like Brazil, seen as less vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.