Brazil Asks US to Trace US$12M in Bolsonaro Film Money
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, the largest country in Latin America, chooses its next president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula.
- —What happened On Friday 9 October, Brazil’s Federal Police asked the United States to trace money that a Texas fund paid out for a Bolsonaro film.
- —The money Former banker Daniel Vorcaro paid R$61 million (about US$12 million) to the film’s producers through the Havengate Development Fund, the news site g1 reports.
- —Who is investigated Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative candidate who finished first in round one, is among those investigated in an inquiry into suspected corruption and money laundering. He denies any wrongdoing.
- —The US link Police want to know whether the money reached his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro, a former congressman who lives in the United States.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 88.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (10 October, 12:58 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 89% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 12% and 11%), as of 10 October, 1:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Brazil’s Federal Police asked the United States on Friday 9 October to help trace Bolsonaro film money that passed through a fund in Texas. The film is Dark Horse, a biopic of Jair Bolsonaro, the conservative who was Brazil’s president from 2019 to 2022.
The investigation names his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 25 October runoff. For Americans, the request asks US authorities to follow the money and touches Eduardo Bolsonaro, another son who lives in the United States.
What the Police Asked Washington For
The police sent their request on Friday to the DRCI, the Justice Ministry’s department for asset recovery and international legal cooperation, Folha de S.Paulo reported. The news site g1 reported the same date and channel.
The request to Washington will go through the Brazil–US agreement on mutual legal assistance in criminal matters, a treaty signed in Brasília in 1997. It has been in force since 21 February 2001, and it lets the two countries share evidence in criminal cases.
Investigators want to find out where the Bolsonaro film money held by the fund finally went. In September, O Globo reported that such a request would pass to the US Department of Justice.
A US federal judge would then have to approve lifting bank secrecy, the paper added. It also noted that it was unclear whether US authorities would cooperate.
The Texas Fund Behind the Bolsonaro Film
The fund is called Havengate Development Fund and is run by Paulo Calixto, a lawyer linked to Eduardo Bolsonaro, according to Folha. Its original purpose was a real estate project for Brazilians in Texas.
Vorcaro paid R$61 million (about US$12 million) to the producers of the Bolsonaro film through Havengate, g1 reports. Conversions here use about 5.01 reais to the US dollar on 10 October 2026.
Flávio negotiated directly with Vorcaro for at least US$24 million for the production, The Intercept Brasil reported earlier, as cited by Folha and g1.
The transfers abroad are the main subject of a plea deal by Antônio Carlos Freixo Júnior, a financial operator for Vorcaro known as Mineiro. Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça, who oversees the inquiry, approved that deal on 9 September.
Mineiro says he only carried out the transfers and did not know where the money finally ended up. He suspected it was meant for the Texas property project, Folha reported.
Who Is Who in the Bolsonaro Film Money Case
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL), his father’s party, led by Valdemar Costa Neto. He won 47.03% of the first-round vote on 4 October against 45.16% for Lula, Folha reported.
Lula, of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) chaired by Edinho Silva, is seeking another term in the 25 October runoff. US President Donald Trump praised Flávio’s first-round lead as a great victory on Monday 5 October.
The Supreme Court sentenced Eduardo Bolsonaro to four years and two months for coercion, for acting in the US to interfere in his father’s trial. On Wednesday 7 October, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered an arrest warrant and cancelled his passports, g1 reported.
Vorcaro owned Banco Master, a bank that Brazil’s central bank shut down on 18 November 2025. He is in jail, and his lawyers say he has been held for more than eight months without being charged.
What It Means for You
If you invest in Brazil, the case adds legal risk around the candidate whom bettors favour to win the presidency. No timetable for a US answer has been made public.
If you are one of the roughly 265,400 Brazilian voters registered in the United States, the largest group abroad, you vote for president only. Polling stations open mainly at consulates and embassies, according to Agência Brasil.
If you follow US politics, the request puts a Texas fund and a US resident inside a Brazilian criminal probe. For background on the Bolsonaro film’s finances, see our report on the Dark Horse forensic report from 14 September.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 88.6% chance of winning the runoff (10 October, 12:58 a.m. ET). Lula stands at 11.5%, and Flávio’s price rose 2.9 points over the previous 24 hours.
The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$179.6 million in total bets. These are bets, not polls, and they can swing quickly on news from the investigation.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 88.6% · Lula 11.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 11%
As of 10 October, 1:20 am ET (06:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
US authorities have not said whether or when they will answer the request. It is not known where the Bolsonaro film money in the Havengate fund finally went, or whether any of it reached Eduardo.
Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation, not on trial, and denies wrongdoing, saying the film used private money and that he backs “total transparency”. Court decisions in the inquiry have been frozen since September, when Chief Justice Edson Fachin took all Banco Master files to his office.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bolsonaro film Dark Horse?
Dark Horse is a biographical film about Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s president from 2019 to 2022. Brazilian police are investigating how the Bolsonaro film was paid for, including money sent through a fund in Texas.
Has Flávio Bolsonaro been charged?
No. He is under investigation for suspected corruption, money laundering and currency evasion, which is not a criminal charge. He denies any wrongdoing and says the film used private money.
How does Brazil ask the US for bank records?
Requests go through Brazil’s Justice Ministry under a bilateral legal assistance treaty in force since 2001. In this case, a US federal judge would have to approve lifting bank secrecy, O Globo reported.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula is on Sunday 25 October. Brazilians registered abroad, about 265,400 of them in the United States, vote mainly at consulates and embassies.
Sources: Presidency of Brazil, Decree 3,810 (Brazil–US legal assistance agreement), 2 May 2001; Folha de S.Paulo, 9 October 2026; g1 (Blog da Andréia Sadi), 9 October 2026; O Globo (via Folha de Pernambuco), 11 September 2026; g1, 8 October 2026; g1, 8 October 2026; Folha de S.Paulo, 5 October 2026; Migalhas, 18 November 2025; Agência Brasil, 26 September 2026; Poder360 (PT leadership), 8 October 2026; Poder360 (PL leadership), 8 April 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error