Flávio and Lula Head to Brazil Runoff, 99.9% Counted
Updated 5 times · Latest: 5 October 2026
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 84.9% · Lula 14.5% (US$175 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 16%
As of 7 October, 2:20 am ET (07:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil’s presidential election goes to a runoff. With 99.96% of polling stations counted, Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.04% of valid votes and Lula 45.15%, and neither can reach 50%. The two meet again on Sunday 25 October.
Key Facts
- The count: 99.96% of polling stations counted (499,070 of 499,248) as of 22:55 Brasília time on 4 October (21:55 US Eastern, 02:55 Lisbon on 5 October), according to the electoral court (TSE). A full state-by-state breakdown is in our first-round results report.
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 47.04% of valid votes (56,098,129 votes). He is a senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL).
- Lula: 45.15% of valid votes (53,845,563 votes). He is the leftist president, from the Workers’ Party (PT).
- The rest: Augusto Cury 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.24%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.18%, Romeu Zema 0.27%. Six other candidates are each below 0.2%.
- Why it matters: A candidate needs more than 50% of valid votes to win outright. No candidate has it, and the 0.04% of polling stations still to report cannot change that. The top two meet in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What it means for you: Brazil’s stock market reopens on Monday 5 October. The first round is settled, but the winner is not. Flávio led in 15 states and Lula in 12.
Where the Count Stands
Brazil’s electoral court, the TSE, showed Flávio Bolsonaro ahead with 47.04% of valid votes at 22:55 Brasília time (21:55 US Eastern, 02:55 Lisbon). Lula had 45.15%. The gap was 2,252,566 votes, or 1.89 percentage points. Neither is above 50%.
The TSE had counted 99.96% of polling stations, which is 499,070 of 499,248 sections. Only 178 sections, or 0.04%, were still to report. The TSE has not yet declared the final result, but the arithmetic is clear: the sections still to report cannot lift either candidate to 50%. A first-round win is not possible for either candidate.
The lead has narrowed all night. At 19:14 Brasília time, with 64.81% counted, Flávio Bolsonaro had 49.58% and Lula 42.25%, a gap of 7.3 points. By 20:40 it was 3.65 points, and it is now 1.89.
The rule is simple. A candidate wins in the first round with more than half of the valid votes. Blank and null ballots are not valid. When nobody passes the line, the top two go to a second round.
Behind the two leaders, Augusto Cury has 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.24%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.18% and Romeu Zema 0.27%.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-0.52%
205,835.29
-0.52%
65,246.95
+0.42%
11,164.13
+0.36%
2,896,853
+0.95%
2,589.04
+0.25%
60,220.93
+0.91%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,835.29 | -0.52% | +21.85% | 206,911.89 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
Why the Gap Narrowed
States report at different speeds, and the late ones favoured Lula. In the final TSE tables, Bahia (66.1%), Ceará (63.3%) and Pernambuco (63.5%) all went to Lula. Paraná (59.9%) and the Federal District (51.3%) went to Flávio Bolsonaro.
São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, two of the biggest electorates, also went to Flávio Bolsonaro, with 51.9% and 53.0%. In Minas Gerais he led with 48.2% to Lula’s 43.3%. Our state-by-state report has all 27.
The final polls had pointed to a different order. Datafolha, in a poll published on 3 October, had Lula at 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes. A poll is not a result. Read more in our final polls report.
Who Is Who
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. His Liberal Party sits on the political right.
Lula (PT) is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the president since 2023. He also governed from 2003 to 2010. His Workers’ Party is on the left, and his running mate is Vice President Geraldo Alckmin.
Augusto Cury (Avante) is an author and psychiatrist. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) is a former governor of Goiás. Renan Santos (Missão) represents the newer Missão party. Romeu Zema (Novo) represents the Novo party.
Why It Matters for the US
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America, and US investors hold it through stocks, bonds and funds. The B3 exchange in São Paulo is closed on Sundays. The first market test comes later today, Monday 5 October.
US-listed shares of Petrobras and Vale, and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), trade during US hours on Monday. The real, Brazil’s currency, will also react. A runoff keeps the uncertainty alive until 25 October.
The winner will also set the tone of Brazil’s relations with Washington, including trade. Our guide on what the election means for US investors covers the market angle, and our election explainer covers the rules.
What Happens Next
The TSE will finish the count and declare the first-round result. The top two, Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, then meet in a runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026. Polling stations close at 17:00 Brasília time, which is 16:00 US Eastern.
Campaigning for the second round starts at once. The other candidates will be courted for their voters, who total about 7.6% of the valid vote between Cury, Santos, Caiado and Zema. Our live results page carries the state map.
What Is Not Known
We do not know whether Cury, Santos, Caiado and Zema will endorse either finalist, or how their voters will split. We also do not know the final margin, which depends on the last 0.04% of polling stations. The TSE count answers that.
Sources
- Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), Resultados portal, presidential count, data of 4 October 2026, 22:55 Brasília time.
- TSE, state results tables, pulled 5 October 2026 (22:55 Brasília time count).
- Datafolha poll published on 3 October 2026.
More on Brazil: Brazil hub. Live: Brazil election results.
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Background: Fintechs and Digital Banks in Brazil 2026: Market Guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading Brazil’s presidential election count?
At 22:55 Brasília time (21:55 US Eastern, 02:55 Lisbon), the electoral court (TSE) showed Flávio Bolsonaro of the conservative Liberal Party (PL) with 47.04% of valid votes and President Lula of the leftist Workers’ Party (PT) with 45.15%, with 99.96% of polling stations counted. Neither is above 50%.
Has anyone won Brazil’s election yet?
No. A candidate wins in the first round only with more than half of the valid votes. Neither leader has that, and the 0.04% of polling stations still to report cannot change it, so the top two meet in a runoff. Blank and null ballots do not count as valid.
Why did the lead narrow during the count?
Brazil’s states report at different speeds. The late counts in the Northeast favoured Lula, who took Bahia (66.1%), Ceará (63.3%) and Pernambuco (63.5%). Flávio Bolsonaro had already won Paraná and the Federal District.
When is the runoff, and where can I follow it from the US?
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026. The official count is on the TSE’s Resultados portal at resultados.tse.jus.br, and The Rio Times live results page shows every candidate’s share and the state map.
Correction — 5 October 2026: This report reflects the TSE count at 22:55 Brasília time on 4 October 2026 (99.96% of polling stations). With more than 99.99% counted, the TSE showed Flávio Bolsonaro on 47.03% of valid votes (56,104,268) and Lula on 45.16% (53,876,617), a gap of 2,227,651 votes or 1.87 percentage points; the runoff on 25 October is unchanged.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief