What to expect for Brazil’s economy in 2022

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – If 2020 was considered “the year that didn’t end” due to the events triggered by the pandemic, 2021 was marked as the rebound year, since Brazil is experiencing a decrease in cases and, mainly, in the number of deaths caused by the pandemic.

Irrespective of the pessimistic or optimistic view, growth will not come effortlessly. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Brazilian consulting firms, the economy is expected to grow between 0.8% and 1.9% in 2022. By comparison, the average growth forecast for emerging countries is 5.1%.

THREE TOPICS TO IMPACT 2022

1) Lower credit supply in banks

According to a survey by the Brazilian Federation of Banks (FEBRABAN), the trend is for banks to reduce the credit offer in 2022. This is because there is a concern of uncontrolled inflation and even recession next year. In such an environment, people’s income and company revenues are directly affected.

On the other hand, due to the higher risk of default, banks will be even more cautious about lending money.

2) Increase in the anticipation of receivables

With less credit available in banks, the trend is for the growth of modalities such as the anticipation of receivables. According to a survey conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil, the anticipation of receivables grew 50% in the first half of last year.

SEBRAE (Brazilian Micro and Small Enterprises Support Service) data show that 45% of micro and small business entrepreneurs use the anticipation of receivables frequently. And another 18% do it occasionally.

3) Consolidation of the Pix

Officially launched in November 2020, the Pix has become popular among Brazilians. There are currently 348 million registered keys and some 105 million individuals using the system. For 2022, the Central Bank announced Pix Cobrança, automatic debit and use with no need for the internet.

With these features, coupled with new fraud prevention systems, the tool has it all to grow even more.

In addition to these three factors mentioned above, it is worth noting that 2022 is an election year for President, governors, and also for the National Congress. This adds to the degree of uncertainty, results in changes in the scenario, and directly impacts the generation of employment and income, two development drivers.

Despite the strong advance of vaccination, the pandemic is not completely solved. There are still doubts about new strains of the virus, which adds an additional risk factor just when Brazilians need to address their domestic issues.