Stable Peso, Slipping Stocks As Fed-Cut Bets Meet Mexico Slowdown

The Mexican peso is holding its ground in early Friday trading even as local equities give back part of a strong November run.

The dollar trades around 18.36 pesos, almost exactly where it closed on Thursday, while the S&P/BMV IPC sits near 62,695 points after a 0.9% drop that ended a four-session winning streak.

Behind the calm exchange rate is a softer greenback. The dollar index is just under 99.6 after one of its weakest weeks since July, with futures markets now pricing a December Federal Reserve rate cut with odds above 80%.

Banco Base economist Gabriela Siller says those expectations have underpinned recent gains in both the peso and Mexican shares, even as holiday-thinned volumes curb intraday swings.

On Thursday that thin liquidity was obvious. Trading on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores totalled about 36.6 million shares worth 2.22 billion pesos, roughly 85% below the 100-day average, as Wall Street stayed closed for Thanksgiving.

With many international desks idle, peso trading remained range-bound between 18.33 and 18.41. The daily chart still shows a gentle downward slope for USD/MXN, while the four-hour chart points to a market that has just shaken out late dollar buyers and is now consolidating.

Equities told a similar story of quiet correction. Within the IPC, Bolsa Mexicana de Valores rose 0.78%, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico 0.74% and insurer Qualitas 0.36%. In the broader market, Axtel gained 3.41% and Aeroméxico 3.29%.

On the downside, supermarket group Chedraui fell 4.09%, followed by restaurant operator Alsea, miner Peñoles, cement maker Cemex and chemicals group Orbia, all losing between about 2.1% and 2.4% as investors took profits after a 2.55% rally over the previous four sessions.

Fundamentals remain mixed. Banxico has cut its 2025 growth forecast and is easing cautiously from still-restrictive levels, trying to balance a soft economy against sticky core inflation and an expansive fiscal agenda in Mexico City.

The IPC’s daily chart looks like a normal pullback inside a solid weekly uptrend, while the main Mexico equity ETF in New York trades near 52-week highs after strong gains but modest recent outflows.

For now, orthodox monetary policy and a disciplined currency are doing the work investors would rather not entrust to politicians, keeping the peso firm even as Mexican assets pause for breath.

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