Dollar–Real Holds in Narrow Range as Markets Weigh Galípolo, Jobs Data and Softer Global Greenback
The dollar–real market is starting Friday with the spot rate around 5.35–5.36, essentially unchanged after Thursday’s low-liquidity session, when the onshore dollar closed at 5.3521 and broke a three-day winning streak for the real.
With Wall Street shut for Thanksgiving, traders described the move as a technical correction, amplified by rolling of futures ahead of November’s final Ptax fixing.
Profit-taking after the real’s recent gains gave local desks a reason to rebuild long-dollar positions, while the absence of external guidance reduced appetite for risk.
The domestic backdrop offered little comfort: October’s Caged report showed the creation of 85,147 formal jobs, the weakest October since the new series began in 2020 and well below last year’s figure.
Analysts say the numbers confirm a gradual cooling of the labour market after two strong years, even if unemployment remains near historic lows and real wages are still rising.
Central-bank president Gabriel Galípolo used an event in São Paulo to stress that monetary policy will stay restrictive “for as long as necessary” to anchor inflation around the 3 percent target.
With the Selic at 15 percent, the message reassured investors who fear renewed political pressure for easier money but underlined that the adjustment will come via slower growth rather than cheaper credit.
Externally, the global dollar has been losing altitude. The dollar index is trading just under the 100 mark after its worst week in months, as markets price in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
A brief outage affecting parts of the CME futures complex added another reason for currency desks to keep positions light during one of the calmest weeks of the year.
Technically, USD/BRL remains locked in a broad band between 5.25 and 5.45, drifting lower from peaks near 5.80 earlier in the year.
Weekly and daily momentum indicators still lean mildly against the dollar, but intraday charts show fading downside pressure and solid support around 5.33 and then 5.27.
Unless Brasília delivers a fresh political scare or U.S. data shift rate expectations, the most likely outcome in the short term is more sideways trading rather than a decisive breakout.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error