Colombian Peso Holds Firm While Local Shares Extend World-Beating Rally

The Colombian peso is trading around 3,745–3,750 per dollar on Friday morning, a touch stronger than the official TRM of 3,773.60 set for the day.

Trading desks describe Thursday as a “quiet but constructive” session, with about $193 million changing hands in an unusually thin market because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

The spot rate spent most of the day in a tight 3,73–3,74 range, signaling that investors are comfortable holding pesos even when global liquidity is low.

Behind that calm sits a softer U.S. currency. The dollar index has slipped toward the high-99 area after traders moved to price in a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as December.

Lower U.S. yields revive the appeal of high-carry emerging currencies, and Colombia remains near the top of that list while its central bank keeps policy restrictive and inflation trending lower.

Local analysts, however, warn that doubts over tax revenues and the ongoing minimum-wage negotiations could quickly reawaken concerns about fiscal discipline if the government leans too hard into expansive promises.

Charts for USD/COP still point to a dominant downtrend. On weekly time frames the pair trades in the lower half of its bands with an RSI near oversold territory, while daily candles show consolidation below short-term moving averages.

The four-hour chart captures the latest drop toward the 3,700 area and a cautious bounce back, suggesting only a corrective move rather than a full trend reversal. Support is clustered around 3,700–3,720, with resistance near 3,780–3,800.

Equities continue to cheer the stronger peso. The MSCI COLCAP closed Thursday at 2,051.65, up 0.5% on the day and nearly 50% higher year-to-date.

Five stocks led the charge: Empresa de Teléfonos de Bogotá surged about 86%, followed by Grupo Aval, Grupo Cibest, Conconcreto and preferred Corficolombiana, all with gains above 1%.

At the other end, Nutresa, Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, preferred Grupo Aval, Promigas and preferred Cementos Argos posted the steepest declines. Daily indicators for COLCAP look constructive rather than euphoric, but weekly readings are stretched.

That combination favours gradual profit-taking on strength and disciplined stock-picking, especially in companies seen as fiscally prudent and friendly to private investment, as Colombia’s policy debate heads into a more contentious phase.

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