Dollar Calm, Risk Assets Rally As Argentina Enjoys Rare FX Breathing Space
Argentina wakes up on Friday to a strange sight: the cheapest dollar is in the back-alley “blue” market, not on bank screens.
The blue opens around 1,420/1,440 pesos, just below Banco Nación’s 1,475 peso retail quote and the 1,450 wholesale rate, which slipped on Thursday after five straight gains.
Financial dollars sit a little higher, with the MEP near 1,482 and the CCL just above 1,520, leaving all spreads in low single digits and signalling that cash demand has cooled for now.
The global backdrop is unusually friendly. The dollar index is hovering near 99.6 after several losing sessions as investors price a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
With external pressure softer, the central bank’s crawling band – whose ceiling today stands close to 1,509 pesos – looks less like a defensive trench and more like a guardrail in the distance.
Reserves have nudged back toward 42 billion dollars, helped by a Treasury auction that rolled over almost all maturities and drew solid demand for fixed-rate paper, a vote of confidence in orthodox arithmetic.
Charts for USD/ARS suggest digestion rather than drama. On the four-hour view the pair trades above short moving averages with MACD positive and RSI overbought, indicating that the quick push from 1,430 to 1,450 may now pause or drift sideways.
The daily chart still slopes gently upward but with softer momentum, matching a market that accepts today’s managed band yet doubts it can survive indefinitely without deeper fiscal and structural reform.
Equities are leaning harder into the optimism. The S&P Merval rose about 1.2 percent on Thursday to 3,020,019 points, its third consecutive gain and again within sight of record highs.
Five clear winners stood out: Grupo Financiero Valores, Banco Macro, Central Puerto, Aluar and Edenor’s New York-listed stock, all boosted by renewed appetite for banks and utilities that promise hard numbers rather than slogans.
On the losing side, Edenor’s local share slipped, together with Pampa Energía, Transportadora de Gas del Sur, MercadoLibre and Globant – a reminder that even in rallies investors still punish weak balance sheets and stretched tech valuations.
For now, Argentina’s markets look less like a crisis in waiting and more like a cautious bet that stricter, market-friendly stabilisation will be rewarded – provided politics do not blink first.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
-0.59%
167,965.51
+0.98%
64,168.42
+0.37%
11,235.40
+0.44%
2,874,593
-0.59%
2,454.53
-0.27%
57,612.45
+1.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,874,593 | -0.59% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
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