Pandemic reinforces changing trend in Brazil’s population profile

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A study conducted by researcher Márcia Castro, from Harvard University’s School of Public Health, shows that, last year, life expectancy in Brazil dropped 1.94 years on average. The ratio between births and deaths, which was 2.20 to 1 before the crisis, fell to 1.26 to 1 this year. In some places, it was worse: the number of deaths exceeded births for the first time.

In the case of the drop in life expectancy, the health crisis has had its effect exacerbated in a cruel way in the context of Brazilian social inequality. The incidence of Covid-19 is higher among low-income people, who are more susceptible to economic turbulence and face greater challenges in accessing health care.

A recent national study published in the journal of the International Epidemiological Association (IEA) showed that poor neighborhoods in São Paulo register three times more coronavirus deaths than the city’s wealthiest areas. Fortunately, despite the tragedy of thousands of lives taken by the disease, the decline in national life expectancy should be only transitory. As soon as the pandemic is controlled, the indicator tends to return progressively to pre-pandemic levels.

The declining birth rate, on the other hand, is a lasting trend, with an impact on the country’s demographic profile. In the first quarter of 2021, Brazil registered almost 10,000 fewer births than in the same period last year. Experts believe that the negative birth rate curve will continue to increase, as a direct reflection of the number of couples deciding to postpone the desire to have children.

The Ministry of Health, incidentally, urged on April 16 that pregnancies be avoided at this time because the variants of the virus would be more lethal in pregnant women. Even as mass vaccination lifts (slowly) the country out of its sanitary agony, the difficult economic recovery in the post-pandemic period should inhibit the rate from rising.

The declining birthrate reinforces a movement that Brazil had already been experiencing. For reasons ranging from the increased entry of women into the labor market to greater access to contraceptive methods, the country is facing a much faster aging process than that seen in developed nations.

According to projections from the United Nations (UN), in 2030 Brazil will have more people aged over 60 than young people up to 14 years old – in the world, this proportion will only be reached in 2050.

“The pandemic only aggravates this trend,” says sociologist José Eustáquio Diniz Alves. If births fall at a faster pace, the base of Brazil’s age pyramid will shrink at the same pace and the country may experience additional challenges in issues such as social security deficit and the pressure for resources for health.”

“It is fundamental to think now about strategies to try to minimize this impact,” says Roberto do Carmo, professor of the Department of Demography at Unicamp. Thus, while Brazil is still struggling to fight the pandemic, it needs to prepare now for the legacy it will leave behind.

Source: Veja