Novo Party Asks Court to Remove Lula Ticket
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Tuesday, 20 October, 1:45 p.m. ET · Source: Poder360, Metrópoles, Correio Braziliense
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened In an action reported on Tuesday 20 October, the Novo party asks Brazil’s electoral court to cancel the Lula-Alckmin ticket and declare both ineligible for eight years.
- The numbers Novo counts 35 government decrees and emergency measures creating or expanding benefits from January to 16 October 2026, and says 12 came during the campaign period.
- The comparison Novo says that equals the 17 measures of 2023, 4 of 2024 and 14 of 2025 combined.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (20 October, 1:30 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 23% and 21%), as of 20 October, 3:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The Lula campaign had not responded when Poder360 published, and no ruling date is known.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
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The Novo party has asked the electoral court, in an action reported on Tuesday 20 October, to remove President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin from the Brazil election 2026 race. Novo, a pro-market party, says the government issued 35 benefit measures in 2026 that tilted the contest.
The request goes to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s top elections court, five days before the runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro. It targets the ticket of the sitting government, so investors and US observers will watch how the court responds.
What Novo Is Asking the Court to Do
Novo’s national leadership wants the TSE to find abuse of political power, cancel the diplomas of the Lula-Alckmin ticket and declare both ineligible for eight years, Poder360 reported. It also asks the court to demand documents from the Finance Ministry, the presidential chief of staff’s office, the National Treasury and the Social Development Ministry.
The party says the documents would prove the cost and timing of each measure. Novo also took the fiscal side of the complaint to the federal audit court (TCU), Metrópoles and Contraponto MS, citing Correio Braziliense reported.
The 35 Measures Behind the Complaint
Novo counts 35 decrees and provisional measures creating or expanding benefits between January and 16 October 2026. That compares with 17 in 2023, 4 in 2024 and 14 in 2025, which add up to the same 35, according to Poder360.
The filing argues that 12 of the 35 were issued during the campaign period, with deadlines, announcements or payments set around the first and second rounds. Among those cited are a 15.04% rise in the Bolsa Família cash-transfer programme, wider fuel subsidies and the Desenrola 3.0 debt-relief programme, Contraponto MS reported.
The list also includes the ban on online betting and the end of the so-called “blusinhas” tax on foreign online purchases of up to US$50. These are the government’s measures as Novo describes them; the court has not assessed them.
Where the Runoff Stands
The last Datafolha poll, published on 15 October, put Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes, a technical tie. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every runoff survey, and our earlier report shows the Datafolha numbers in detail.
This is not Novo’s first such request. In August, Novo filed a separate request over a Carnival parade honouring Lula, and we could not confirm its outcome.
What It Means for US Readers
For investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed Brazilian shares, the filing adds a legal headline to a race that polls call close. The court has not signalled when it will act, and the vote itself is five days away.
For anyone following US-Brazil relations, the winner of 25 October will set the tone with Washington on trade and sanctions for four years. A complaint at the electoral court is a request, not a finding.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (20 October, 1:30 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$189.0 million in total trading.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 22.5% (US$189 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 20 October, 3:20 pm ET (20:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known when the TSE will rule or whether a judge will be assigned before 25 October. The Lula campaign had not commented when Poder360 published, and we have not seen the government’s defence.
The court has not yet assessed whether any of the 35 measures broke electoral law. Novo’s figures are the party’s own count.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Novo party ask the electoral court to do?
It asked the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to cancel the Lula-Alckmin ticket and declare both ineligible for eight years. The action was reported on Tuesday 20 October.
Why does Novo want Lula and Alckmin removed?
It says the government issued 35 benefit measures in 2026 and that 12 came during the campaign period, tilting the race. The party calls this abuse of political power.
Does this change the 25 October runoff?
No ruling is known, and the runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is still scheduled for Sunday 25 October. A complaint is a request that the court must still judge.
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll?
Datafolha’s poll of 15 October had Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes, a technical tie.
Which measures does Novo cite?
They include a 15.04% rise in Bolsa Família, wider fuel subsidies, the Desenrola 3.0 debt-relief programme, the online betting ban and the end of the “blusinhas” tax. These are Novo’s claims.
Sources: Poder360, 20 October 2026; Metrópoles, 20 October 2026; Contraponto MS (Correio Braziliense), 20 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief