Mexico Oil Revenue Up 10.5% as Exports Sink

MEXICO · OIL AND BUDGET

Mexico oil revenue is up 10.5% after inflation in the first eight months of 2026, but Brent crude near US$110 a barrel is a smaller windfall for Mexico than the price suggests. The reason is that state-owned Pemex sold 45% less crude abroad in August than a year earlier, 276,000 barrels a day against 500,000, its own statistics show.

For US readers the gap touches three things at once: Pemex’s debt, which Moody’s puts at about US$97 billion on its adjusted count, the peso near 18.4 to the dollar, and the gasoline and diesel that Mexico still imports. Brent futures settled at US$109.55 on Monday 19 October and touched about US$111 on Tuesday 20 October, the highest level since May, after the Yemen-based Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi energy sites that Saudi authorities had not confirmed, Infobae and El Economista, which carried a Reuters report, said.

We covered the pump side of the story in Mexico Says Fuel Pact Blocks US$6 Gasoline and the credit side in Pemex Rating Cut Follows Mexico’s Downgrade. This report adds the income side, with the latest official figures for exports, revenue and fuel imports.

How Mexico Oil Revenue Rose 10.5%

The finance ministry’s report for January to August, published on 30 September, puts public-sector oil revenue at MXN 690.4 billion (about US$37.5 billion), up 10.5% in real terms from a year earlier. The ministry called it the fastest growth for a similar period since 2022, Revista Fortuna reported.

Pemex’s own income inside that total grew 13.6%, which the ministry tied to higher sales and higher international prices, Imagen Radio reported. In August alone oil revenue was MXN 81.8 billion (about US$4.4 billion), up 9.1%, La Silla Rota reported.

Total public budget revenue rose 1.3% in real terms to MXN 5.66 trillion (about US$307 billion), and the budget deficit stood at MXN 739 billion (about US$40 billion), below the MXN 1.015 trillion (about US$55 billion) the programme allowed for the period, Revista Fortuna reported. Value-added tax, oil and import duties drove the gain, while income tax fell 5.6% in real terms.

Peso figures in this report use the Banco de México reference rate of 18.4253 pesos per dollar for Monday 19 October, as published by Sociedad Noticias and Maya Comunicación. Real terms means after inflation.

Pemex Is Selling Less Crude Abroad

Pemex’s statistics, published at the end of September with data to August, show crude exports of 276,000 barrels a day, the lowest monthly volume in its table and 45% below August 2025. Their value was US$627 million, down 34% from US$954 million a year earlier, even though the average export price rose to US$73.34 a barrel from US$61.52.

Over January to August crude export earnings were US$8.2 billion, 11% less than the US$9.3 billion of a year earlier, our calculation from the same table. Latinus found that August volumes were about half of the 522,400 barrels a day that the 2026 budget plan assumed.

Latinus ties the drop to more crude going into Pemex’s own refineries and to the government’s energy-sovereignty strategy, and it calls August’s total liquids output of 1.637 million barrels a day the lowest in 15 months. Pemex’s table also shows that 133,000 barrels a day of the August exports went to the Americas, 111,000 to Europe and 32,000 to the Far East, and it does not name buyer countries.

Mexico’s own crude mix, which includes heavy Maya crude, was priced at US$99.6 a barrel on Monday 19 October on Pemex’s daily price page, Infobae reported. It was US$92.16 on 5 October, El Universal reported, while Brent futures closed at US$109.55 on 19 October, about US$10 above the mix.

Where Dearer Oil Costs Mexico Money

Mexico still buys abroad about 49% of the gasoline and 27% of the diesel it uses, Banamex economists calculate for the first half of the year, Industry & Energy Magazine reported. Pemex’s trade table shows the bill: January to August hydrocarbon imports were US$15.7 billion against exports of US$11.7 billion, a deficit of US$4.0 billion, up from about US$1.0 billion a year earlier by our subtraction.

To hold pump prices down the government has cut the fuel tax, with relief averaging 27.9% on regular gasoline, 59.2% on premium and 15.8% on diesel this year, Banamex estimates. The finance ministry’s report shows the cost: gasoline and diesel tax income fell 5.0% in real terms to MXN 277.1 billion (about US$15.0 billion), and La Silla Rota reported a 23.6% fall in August alone.

Banamex weighed the two sides in September and estimated about MXN 60.4 billion (about US$3.3 billion) of extra oil income for 2026 on a Brent average of US$90.5, against MXN 27.2 billion (about US$1.5 billion) of fuel tax relief, a net gain. It also estimated that full relief for a 32% rise in import prices would cost about MXN 70.5 billion (about US$3.8 billion) a year.

That estimate assumed crude exports of 480,000 barrels a day, far above August’s 276,000, so the extra income would shrink if volumes stay near the August level. It is one bank’s calculation and not an official figure.

Budget Prices Versus Today’s Prices

The 2026 budget assumed US$54.9 a barrel for Mexican crude, Banamex notes, so the US$99.6 of 19 October is about 81% higher. The 2027 plan assumes US$61.8 a barrel, a price that the committee text of the revenue law left unchanged, Crónica reported.

Latinus reported that the government’s production goal is 1.8 million barrels a day of liquids by 2030, and deputies passed the revenue law in mid-October, as our report Mexico Deputies Pass US$576B Revenue Law explains. The Senate still has to vote on it, so the oil price assumption can in principle still change.

Pemex Debt and the Federal Bill

Moody’s senior vice president Roxana Muñoz said on 24 September that Pemex will need at least about US$10 billion a year of government support for the next three to five years, a floor set by its debt maturities. She put adjusted debt at about US$97 billion in June, with about US$4.8 billion due in 2027 and about US$9 billion in 2028, and refining losses near US$5 billion that volatility could push to US$6 billion, Forbes México reported.

What Prediction Markets Say

A Polymarket contract on whether WTI crude hits US$110 in October trades at 14.5%, and the US$120 contract at 3.1%, as of 1:46 p.m. ET on 20 October. The event has traded about US$3.4 million in total volume, and the US$100 contract has already resolved to yes.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

Investors in Pemex bonds and Mexican assets are looking at a split picture, with a higher oil price on one side and falling export volumes and a growing fuel-import bill on the other. Mexico oil revenue gains from dearer crude only as long as fuel tax relief and imports do not absorb the extra income.

Travellers and expats feel the other side at the pump, where the fuel tax relief and the government’s pact with station owners hold prices down. Our guides Mexico Natural Resources Explained 2026 and Who Dominates Mexico, Elites and Regions Explained give the wider picture, and our Mexico City expat guide covers daily costs.

What Is Not Known

We could not open the finance ministry’s report or Pemex’s daily price page ourselves, so those figures come from Revista Fortuna, Imagen Radio, La Silla Rota, Latinus and Infobae, which agree with each other. Pemex’s monthly statistics file was opened directly.

It is not known how much of the oil income comes from higher prices rather than other effects, since the sources tie Pemex’s 13.6% income gain only to higher sales and prices. Nor is it known whether exports will recover, because the sources reviewed give no date for a recovery.

Banamex’s estimate of the net gain rests on a Brent average of US$90.5 and exports of 480,000 barrels a day, assumptions that August’s 276,000 does not support. The next monthly finance report, expected at the end of October, will show whether oil income kept growing in September.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much has Mexico oil revenue risen this year?

Public-sector oil revenue rose 10.5% in real terms to MXN 690.4 billion (about US$37.5 billion) in January to August. August alone brought MXN 81.8 billion (about US$4.4 billion), up 9.1%.

Why are Pemex exports falling when oil is above US$100?

Pemex exported 276,000 barrels a day in August, 45% fewer than a year earlier, and Latinus links the drop to more crude going to domestic refineries and to the energy-sovereignty strategy. Total liquids output also fell, to 1.637 million barrels a day.

What oil price does Mexico’s budget assume?

The 2026 budget assumed US$54.9 a barrel for Mexican crude, and the 2027 plan assumes US$61.8. Mexico’s crude mix sold for US$99.6 on 19 October.

Does dearer oil help or hurt Mexico?

It does both: Mexico oil revenue rises with the crude price, but the country imports about 49% of its gasoline and 27% of its diesel. Fuel tax relief has cut gasoline and diesel tax income by 5.0% in real terms this year.

What does it mean for US readers?

Higher oil lifts Mexico’s public income, but falling Pemex exports and a larger fuel-import bill limit the gain for holders of Pemex debt and Mexican assets. Moody’s puts Pemex’s adjusted debt at about US$97 billion.

Sources: Pemex, Petroleum Statistics (data to August 2026); Revista Fortuna, 30 September 2026; Imagen Radio, 1 October 2026; La Silla Rota, 30 September 2026; Latinus, 3 October 2026; Infobae, 19 October 2026; El Universal via El Porvenir, 6 October 2026; Infobae, 19 October 2026; El Economista, 20 October 2026; Inspenet, 20 October 2026; Industry & Energy Magazine, 24 September 2026; Forbes México, 24 September 2026; Crónica, 13 October 2026; Maya Comunicación, 19 October 2026; Sociedad Noticias, 19 October 2026; Polymarket market data, read 20 October 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief