MEXICO · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The release INEGI published August industrial activity data on Monday, 12 October.
- —The figure Unadjusted output rose 3.5% year on year, against a 2.6% forecast.
- —Previous value July’s unadjusted annual growth was 2.7%.
- —Monthly change Seasonally adjusted output grew 0.6% from July.
- —The sectors Manufacturing rose 1.2% on the month, while mining fell 1.6%.
- —What it means for you Firmer Mexican factory output supports supply chains serving US companies.
Mexican industry grew faster than expected in August, led by factories building cars and electronics. Mining was again the weak spot.
Mexico industrial output rose 3.5% in August from a year earlier, beating a 2.6% market forecast. The national statistics office INEGI published the figure on Monday, 12 October, after growth of 2.7% in July.
The result matters in the United States because Mexican plants build cars, electronics and machinery for North American supply chains. It also arrives as the peso trades at its weakest level since late November 2025.
Factories and Construction Drive the August Gain
INEGI, the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, said seasonally adjusted output grew 0.6% from July. On the same adjusted basis, activity was 3.6% higher than in August 2025.
Manufacturing rose 1.2% on the month, and so did electricity, water and gas supply. Construction was flat on the month, while mining fell 1.6%.
Over the year, adjusted construction output grew 7.9% and manufacturing 3.2%. Utilities gained 1.4%, while mining was 0.8% lower than a year earlier.
The adjusted index stood at 103.4 points, against a 2018 base of 100. Industry is therefore producing about 3.4% more than its 2018 average, two years before the pandemic.
Cars and Electronics Lead Factory Growth
Unadjusted figures by subsector show where the growth came from. Output of computers, communication equipment and electronic components rose 12.2% from a year earlier, and transport equipment rose 5.6%.
Machinery and equipment gained 4.9%, while petroleum and coal products jumped 21.4%. Food processing, by contrast, fell 2.3%, and furniture output dropped 8.8%.
In construction, civil engineering works rose 17.6% and building rose 7.0% on the year. Specialised construction work fell 1.2%.
Mining Remains the Weak Spot
Mining fell for a second month on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 1.8% drop in July. Oil and gas extraction was 0.1% lower than a year earlier, and mining-related services fell 7.3%.
Mining services cover work such as drilling for oil and minerals. For the first eight months, however, that subsector is still 25.1% ahead of 2025.
Across all industry, unadjusted output for January to August was 0.8% higher than a year earlier. The July release had shown a cumulative gain of only 0.4%.
What It Means for You
For US companies that buy Mexican parts and finished goods, the August data point to steady factory supply. Investors in Mexican assets watch the release as an early gauge of quarterly growth.
The peso closed on Friday, 9 October, at 18.41 per US dollar, according to Banco de México data cited by El Financiero. That was its weakest close since 24 November 2025, which can make Mexican goods cheaper for US buyers.
El Financiero, a Mexico City business daily, reported on Monday that Mexican and US interest rates are 250 basis points apart. Analysts it quoted said this is eroding peso carry trades, where investors borrow cheaply elsewhere to buy peso assets.
What Is Not Known
The release does not break down exports, so it does not show how much August output went to the United States. The 2.6% forecast is a market consensus, not an INEGI projection.
The figures are preliminary and can be revised next month. It is also unclear whether the jump in petroleum products reflects lasting refinery gains or a one-off rebound.
What Comes Next
INEGI will publish September industrial activity on Wednesday, 11 November 2026. Analysts will compare that figure with August to judge whether the rebound is lasting.
One strong month does not mean Mexican industry has fully recovered. Unadjusted output for the year so far is up only 0.8%.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Does Mexico Industrial Output Measure?
It is the monthly INEGI index of mining, utilities, construction and manufacturing activity. The index uses 2018 as its base year, set at 100.
Did August Beat Expectations?
Yes, unadjusted output rose 3.5% from a year earlier against a 2.6% forecast. Annual growth in July had been 2.7%.
Which Sector Was Weakest?
Mining was the weakest sector, falling 1.6% on the month after seasonal adjustment. Oil and gas extraction was slightly lower than a year earlier.
Why Does It Matter to the United States?
Mexican plants supply cars, electronics and machinery to North American supply chains. Changes in Mexican factory output can affect US manufacturers that rely on those parts.
When Is the Next Release?
INEGI will publish September data on Wednesday, 11 November 2026. The August figures are preliminary and may be revised then.
Sources: INEGI, Indicador Mensual de la Actividad Industrial, August 2026 (bulletin 623/26); INEGI, Indicador Mensual de la Actividad Industrial, July 2026 (bulletin 590/26); El Financiero (all accessed 12 October 2026).
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