Mexico Business Confidence Edges Up to 48.4 in September, 19th Month Below 50

ECONOMY · MEXICO

Mexico business confidence edged up in September, but executives across the economy remain mildly pessimistic. The national statistics institute INEGI said on Thursday (1 October) that its global indicator rose 0.1 points to 48.4.

A reading below 50 means more executives are pessimistic than optimistic. The global indicator has been below that line for 19 consecutive months. It is also 1.0 point lower than a year earlier.

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Factory sentiment stalls at 48.0

The manufacturing confidence indicator stood at 48.0 in September, the same as in August. It was 1.3 points lower than a year earlier and has been below 50 for 18 straight months.

Within the factory survey, two of five components were unchanged, one rose and two fell. Executives were slightly more upbeat about the country’s future, at 52.2 points.

Their outlook for their own companies cooled by 0.5 points to 55.4. Still, both forward-looking readings remain above 50, so plant managers expect better times ahead.

The weak spot is investment. The factory gauge of whether now is the right time to invest stood at 34.3, three points lower than a year ago.

That component has sat below 50 for 160 consecutive months, according to INEGI. Exports were strong in August, as reported in Mexico Exports Rise 40.4% in August 2026 as Electronics Sales Double.

Trade and construction lift the global reading

Commerce, which covers wholesale and retail firms, posted the biggest gain. Its indicator rose 0.7 points to 48.9, the highest of the four sectors.

Wholesalers drove the improvement on a yearly basis, at 47.0 points against 45.1 a year earlier. Retailers dipped slightly, to 51.0 from 51.7.

Construction confidence climbed 0.4 points to 47.8, though it has now been below 50 for 25 months. Builders were the most hopeful about their own firms, at 61.0 points.

Yet construction executives also gave the lowest investment-timing score of any sector, at 25.5. That gap between hope and spending plans runs through the whole survey.

Services slip as hotels and transport cool

Private non-financial services was the only sector to fall. Its indicator lost 0.2 points to 48.4 and was 2.1 points lower than in September 2025.

Transport and storage firms reported 47.9, down from 50.9 a year earlier. Hotels and restaurants fell to 47.8 from 50.7.

Professional and business services held at 50.0, the only services branch not below the line. Mexico business confidence has been flat for months; see Mexico Business Confidence Slips to 48.2 in April, Fourteenth Month Below 50.

What Is Not Yet Known

INEGI first reported August’s global reading at 48.2. September’s 0.1-point rise reflects seasonally adjusted figures that can be revised as new data arrive.

Several September components are preliminary, INEGI said. It is unclear whether the slight improvement marks a turn or simply noise around a flat line.

The next release, covering October, is scheduled for 3 November 2026. Investment intentions will be the reading to watch.

Sources: INEGI, Indicadores de Confianza Empresarial, September 2026 (bulletin 611/26, 1 Oct 2026); INEGI, Indicadores de Confianza Empresarial, August 2026 (bulletin 575/26, 1 Sep 2026).

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