Lesotho Braces for El Niño Drought as Heat and Hunger Risks Rise
Key Facts
- The country. Lesotho is a mountain kingdom of about 2.4 million people, entirely surrounded by South Africa. That is roughly the population of Houston, with an economy of about US$2.6 billion in 2025 (World Bank).
- Why it matters. Most rural families live from rain-fed maize and livestock. In July 2024 an El Niño drought forced a national food disaster declaration, with about 700,000 people expected to face hunger.
- Why now. A strong El Niño, a warming of the Pacific that tends to dry out southern Africa, is building. Forecasters expect below-normal rain in Lesotho from October to December 2026.
- What happened. In remarks published on 24 September 2026, the agriculture minister said the government has bought drought-tolerant seed and told herders to grow fodder and store water.
- The numbers. About 311,000 people are projected to face food insecurity from October 2026 to March 2027. One heat model projects 43 extra deaths by February 2027.
- What it means for you. Expect heat, water stress and possible food-price pressure into early 2027. Lesotho also sends water to South Africa’s Gauteng province, so long dry spells matter there too.
- Still open. The size of the seed purchase, any emergency budget and how dry the season actually turns out. The disaster agency says it often lacks ready cash.
The mountain kingdom is buying time with drought-tolerant seed and fodder, while its disaster agency warns it lacks ready cash.
The Lesotho drought risk is rising again as a strong El Niño builds, and the government says it is preparing farmers for a hotter, drier summer. Lesotho is a small, high-altitude kingdom of about 2.4 million people, completely surrounded by South Africa.
Its agriculture minister, Selibe Mochoboroane, told the Chinese state news agency Xinhua that seed and fodder are in place. Regional forecasters expect below-normal rain from October to December 2026 and above-average temperatures across most of southern Africa.
What the government is doing
Mochoboroane said recent rains had left enough soil moisture to “carry us into December.” He said the state has procured drought-tolerant seeds that should still yield a harvest if farmers use them properly.
He also advised livestock farmers to plant lucerne, a hardy fodder crop, in case natural grazing dries out. Herders at remote mountain cattle posts were told to harvest as much water as possible before the dry months.
The forecast behind this comes from the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum, which met in Namibia in August. It sees a higher chance of below-normal rain in Lesotho from October to December.
Aid groups are already moving
The Lesotho Red Cross Society activated its drought early-action plan on 9 September 2026, according to a report published on ReliefWeb. It cited a national seasonal outlook issued on 4 September that expects El Niño to peak between October 2026 and early 2027.
That peak overlaps with planting and the main growing season. The Red Cross said its trigger was originally set for January, but the forecast and food data justified acting early.
The food data come from the Lesotho Vulnerability Assessment Committee, a government-led panel. Its August 2026 report projects about 311,000 people will face food insecurity from October 2026 to March 2027.
The Red Cross puts that at roughly a fifth of the population. Seven of the ten districts analysed are projected to reach crisis level, the third step on a five-step international hunger scale.
The projection behind the preparation
The Climate Impact Lab, a research group, projects that El Niño heat could cause 43 additional deaths in Lesotho between September 2026 and February 2027. That is compared with an average year, and most deaths would fall in January and February.
Co-author Emily Grover-Kopec said the model covers heat alone, not drought or food shortages, and holds no demographic data. The lab plans to update its projections monthly until El Niño ends.
Rammolenyane Lethaha, a forecaster at the Lesotho Meteorological Services, said waterborne diseases are usually among the health hazards of an El Niño season. A local physician urged residents to drink water, cover up and keep children out of direct sun.
A disaster agency short of cash
Reatile Elias, chief executive of Lesotho’s Disaster Management Authority, said limited funding remains a problem. “DMA does not always have funds readily available for imminent disasters,” he told Xinhua.
He said the elderly and people with disabilities would be hit hardest. The Climate Impact Lab argues that funding released before a disaster strikes is one of the tools that saves lives.
Lesotho has been here before
In July 2024 the government declared a national food insecurity disaster after an El Niño drought. Crop yields fell to their lowest since the 2018/19 season, and the United Nations expected about 700,000 people to face hunger.
A new Lesotho drought would hit a country that already relies heavily on South African maize imports. A dry season at home and across the border can therefore hurt twice: smaller harvests and dearer imports.
What it means for visitors and investors
Travellers should plan for hot days and carry water in the highlands, where dry spells strain rural supplies. Lesotho’s currency, the loti, is pegged one-to-one to the South African rand.
For business, the bigger link is water. The Lesotho Highlands Water Project, built around reservoirs such as Katse, transfers water to South Africa’s Gauteng province, home to Johannesburg and Pretoria.
What Is Not Known
The size of the seed purchase and any emergency budget for the Disaster Management Authority have not been published. How far below normal the October-to-December rains will fall is a probability forecast, not a certainty.
It is also unclear how much a Lesotho drought this season would add to the 311,000 people already projected to need help. That will depend on how the rains behave once planting begins.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Lesotho doing about the El Niño drought risk?
The agriculture ministry says it has bought drought-tolerant seed and told livestock farmers to grow lucerne fodder and store water. The Lesotho Red Cross activated its drought early-action plan on 9 September 2026.
How many people in Lesotho could go hungry?
The Lesotho Vulnerability Assessment Committee projects about 311,000 people will face food insecurity from October 2026 to March 2027. That projection came before the full effect of El Niño on this season’s rains is known.
How dangerous could the heat be?
A Climate Impact Lab projection puts El Niño heat at 43 additional deaths in Lesotho between September 2026 and February 2027. It is a statistical estimate and leaves out deaths from drought or hunger.
Does a Lesotho drought matter outside the country?
Yes, in part. Lesotho supplies water to South Africa’s industrial heartland through the Lesotho Highlands Water Project, and it buys much of its maize from South Africa, so both sides of the border are linked.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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