Ecuador Economy Grew 2.1% in the Second Quarter, Central Bank Says
Key Facts
Ecuador’s economy grew 2.1% in the second quarter of 2026 against the same period a year earlier, the central bank said. The bank also reported that output was 1.3% lower than in the first three months of the year.
Household spending and investment carried the annual figure, while oil output and shrimp farming shrank. No government minister commented publicly on the numbers on the day they appeared.
What the Central Bank Reported
The Banco Central del Ecuador publishes quarterly national accounts, the official measure of the country’s economic output. Its report for the second quarter of 2026 appeared on 25 September.
The bank said gross domestic product rose 2.1% between April and June, measured against the same months of 2025. It added that fifteen of the twenty industries it tracks grew over that period.
Ecuador uses the US dollar as its currency, so these figures carry no exchange-rate distortion. That makes the quarterly series easier to read than in most neighbouring countries.
The bank publishes the series roughly three months after each quarter ends. The second-quarter report therefore covers a period that closed at the end of June.
The Quarter That Went Backwards
The annual comparison was positive, but the quarterly one was not. Output between April and June was 1.3% below the level of January to March.
Two things pulled it down, according to the bank’s own breakdown. Investment fell 4.0% from the previous quarter, and household spending fell 0.9%.
Exports were the exception, rising 0.7% over the three months. El Universo, the Guayaquil daily, reported that eleven of the twenty industries grew on that quarterly measure.
Quarterly movements in a small economy swing more than annual ones. A single weak harvest or a maintenance shutdown at an oil field can move the figure.
What Drove the Annual Growth
Households did most of the work. Their spending rose 3.5% against the second quarter of 2025, contributing about 2.2 points of the annual growth.
Investment rose 10% on the same comparison, adding about two points. El Comercio, the Quito newspaper, reported that spending on machinery, works and equipment led that increase.
Financial and insurance activities grew 12.5%, which the bank singled out as a main driver. Electricity and water supply rose 12.6%, and manufacturing outside food and drink rose 6.4%.
Hotels and restaurants grew 5.7% and commerce grew 2.4%, according to El Comercio. Construction rose 2.2% on the same annual measure.
What Shrank
Five of the twenty industries did not grow over the year. Fishing and shrimp farming fell 5.8%, the largest decline on the list.
Oil and mining extraction fell 2.2%, and agriculture and livestock fell 1.4%. Public administration fell 2.7%, and government spending overall was down 3.4% on the year.
Shrimp and crude oil are two of Ecuador’s largest exports. Weakness in both limits how much the headline figure tells a reader about the country’s export earnings.
The fall in oil and mining matters because crude is Ecuador’s single biggest export earner. On the bank’s figures the sector subtracted from growth rather than adding to it.
The Same Number Twice
The first quarter of 2026 also grew 2.1% year on year. That figure came in a separate release the central bank published in June.
The match is a coincidence of rounding rather than a repeat of one announcement. Two different quarters were measured, each against its own quarter a year before.
The two identical annual rates also sit on top of a quarterly decline. A reader looking only at the headline would miss that the economy shrank between March and June.
Rounded figures can also hide real differences between quarters. The unrounded rates for the two periods need not be identical, even though both print as 2.1%.
Forecasts and What to Watch
The central bank raised its own forecast for 2026 on 15 September, ten days before the quarterly report. It now expects growth of 2.7% for the year, up from 2.5%.
The International Monetary Fund is less optimistic, projecting 2.5% for 2026 in its August programme document. That paper put Ecuador’s growth for the whole of 2025 at 3.7%.
Both forecasts sit above the 2.1% recorded in each of the first two quarters. Reaching either would need a stronger second half of the year.
Early evidence points that way, with the bank’s monthly activity index up 7.9% in July from a year earlier. Cumulative growth for January to July reached 2.9%.
Frequently Asked Questions
How fast did Ecuador’s economy grow?
Gross domestic product rose 2.1% in the second quarter of 2026 against the same quarter of 2025. Measured against the first quarter of 2026, it fell 1.3%.
Did the first quarter really grow at the same rate?
Yes. The central bank reported 2.1% year-on-year growth for the first quarter of 2026 in a separate release in June, and the match is a coincidence of rounding.
What drove the growth?
Household spending rose 3.5% and investment rose 10% against the same quarter a year earlier. Financial and insurance activities were among the fastest-growing branches, at 12.5%.
What did the government say?
No minister commented publicly on the day the figures appeared. The central bank had already raised its forecast for 2026 to 2.7% on 15 September.
Is this faster or slower than last year?
Slower. The bank reported 3.5% growth for the second quarter of 2025, and the International Monetary Fund put growth for the whole of 2025 at 3.7%.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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