Covid-19 reduces pace of population growth; Brazil may have lasting demographic impact

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – In March of this year, when Brazil became the epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic, for the first time ever a Brazilian state recorded more deaths than births; if this trend spreads across the country it will reflect not only on the health of Brazilians but will have economic and demographic impacts for generations to come.

Hit hard by the collapse of the health system caused by the explosion of cases of Covid-19, Rio Grande do Sul registered in March the deaths of 15,736 people – more than twice the deaths registered in the same month in the two previous years – while 11,921 births were registered, according to national civil registry data from the Transparency Portal.

With an elderly population larger than the national average, Rio Grande do Sul was the first, but it may not be the only state to reach the sad milestone in the coming months.

According to the data, in at least seven states, including São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the number of deaths is dangerously close to the number of births.

“In April, it will be even worse. Brazil may have the first moment in its history when deaths will exceed births, which would show the structural and demographic pandemic impact of Covid-19 in the country,” as neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis at Duke University, who has closely followed the progress of Covid-19 in Brazil since the pandemic began, told Reuters.

In the first three months of 2021, for every recorded death, there were 1.47 births, a much lower number than the same period in 2020, when there were 2.10 registered births for each death.

The impact of this reduction will appear, in the coming years, in the life expectancy of the population, and the demographic profile, education, and income of Brazilians.

In December 2020, when the ebb of the epidemic was beginning, a survey by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) calculated a 2.2 year drop in Brazilians’ life expectancy in 2020, the first year of the epidemic.

By December, 191,000 Brazilians had died from Covid-19. Since then, however, deaths have accelerated and completed the month of March at almost 330,000 deaths, which may bring an even greater impact.

“We have high mortality among the elderly. This alone has a huge impact on the age structure of the country. We have seen in recent years an increase in the aging of the population and an increase in life expectancy from 60 onwards. With this higher mortality among the elderly, we are going to have a reduction in life expectancy starting at age 60,” Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, a doctor in demography from the University of Brasília (UnB), told Reuters.

However, the demographic impact goes beyond the elderly, since Brazil’s epidemic has begun to “rejuvenate,” with more and more people between 30 and 59 being infected and hospitalized in serious condition.

In an epidemiological bulletin, the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) pointed out considerable increases in the contamination among younger people – 565.08% for those between 30 and 39 years old; 626% between 40 and 49 years old; and 525.93% between 50 and 59 years old – which suggests, according to the researchers, a displacement of the pandemic to younger people.

In the case of deaths, the growth was smaller but still significant: an increase of 352.62% from 30 to 39 years, 419.23% for the 40 to 49 age group, and 317.08% 50 to 59 years.

“In fact, the average age of inpatients has been steadily decreasing. The average age of cases in week 1 of 2021 was 62 years and of deaths was 71 years. The data show that in epidemiological week 10 (in 2020), the values were 58 years for new cases and 66 years for deaths,” says the Foundation’s bulletin.

The so-called rejuvenation of the pandemic occurred simultaneously with the advance of variant P.1, which originated in Manaus and has greater dissemination power. Epidemiologists point to the variant as one of those responsible for the coronavirus explosion in Brazil this year, making the country the new epicenter of the disease.

“Due to the characteristics of this variant, which is more contagious and worsens faster, but also due to the uncontrolled pandemic, the contamination of younger people, the economically active population, has increased,” said epidemiologist Pedro Hallal, from the Federal University of Pelotas. “We’re going to have an impact on life expectancy and also an economic impact that will take years and years and years to recover from.”

Ana Maria Vasconcelos, from UnB, predicts lower population growth, or even a decrease in some places, especially in inland cities with an older population, and a considerable economic and social impact on families.

“For sure, the mortality of the adult population in the productive and reproductive phase has a huge impact not only now, but in the future,” she told Reuters.

The demographer calculates impacts on Brazilians’ income and education not only by early deaths but by the sequels that Covid-19 can leave and the reduction in the working capacity of these people, which can directly impact family income.

“I see challenging scenarios for the country. We need to think in consensus and look at what we need to treat our population and support families,” he said. “The people who are most impacted, lower-income, have less ability to get out of this risky situation that has been imposed on them. They don’t have jobs. These are losses of a generation.”

Source: Infomoney