Colombia’s Rally Cools, But The Boom Still Looks Intact

Key Points

• USD/COP slipped toward 3,610 as the peso stayed strong and the dollar remained soft.
• The MSCI COLCAP eased to about 2,433.78 after printing record highs this week.
• Charts show a stretched equity rally and an oversold dollar, raising the odds of choppy trading.

The peso kept the pressure on the dollar on Friday morning, while Colombia’s stock boom finally paused.

On your TradingView charts, USD/COP was near 3,609.7 around 07:44 UTC. That is a major move from the 3,700 area seen earlier in the week. The daily structure still points lower, yet the intraday tone is changing.

On the 4-hour chart, RSI sank near 32, a level that often signals exhaustion. Momentum remains negative, but the selloff is no longer accelerating. The daily RSI is also weak, around the mid-30s, suggesting the dollar is oversold versus the peso.

The global backdrop is not fighting that trend. The dollar index held around 98.3. That is subdued by recent standards. A softer dollar typically gives emerging-market currencies room to breathe. It also reduces pressure on local inflation, at least at the margin.

Stocks told a more complicated story. The MSCI COLCAP was around 2,433.78, down roughly 0.46% from the prior close. The pullback looks healthy rather than panicked.

On the daily chart, RSI sits in the mid-80s, with the 4-hour RSI still above 80. That is extreme momentum. It also means the market can drop without breaking the uptrend.

Technically, the index remains above key moving averages. Immediate support sits near 2,400, then around 2,333. A push back toward 2,445 would retest this week’s highs.

Leaders and laggards underline the day’s rotation.

Top winners: Grupo Cibest (+6.50%), Nutresa (+1.97%), Cementos Argos (+1.54%), Enka (+1.04%), Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (+0.68%).

Top losers: Cementos Argos (P) (-7.41%), Ecopetrol (-6.18%), ETB (-3.02%), Grupo Cibest (P) (-3.01%), ISA (-1.87%).

The fundamental tension is growing. A stronger peso flatters asset prices and consumers. It also squeezes exporters and any business priced in dollars.

Investors are rewarding markets that look orderly and rules-based. They are less forgiving when policy feels improvised. That mix keeps Colombia attractive, but it also makes the next pullback more meaningful.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | A Blocked Tax Bill Pushes Colombia Toward Emergency Rule And This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombia affairs and Latin American financial news.