Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 23, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• Will Bank liquidation → Brazil’s central bank liquidated Will Financeira (Will Bank) on January 21, 2026, after controller Banco Master entered special administration in November 2025; missed Mastercard payments obligations triggered card blocks and bank run; high-yield CDBs up to 140% of CDI and alleged R$11.5B ($2.1B) triangulations led to FGC payouts of R$46.9B ($8.7B).

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• Azul passenger record → Azul Linhas Aéreas transported 31.73M passengers in 2025 (+4% YoY), international +28.1% to 1.52M, load factor 83.3%; amid Chapter 11 restructuring aiming for >$2B debt reduction, up to $300M equity from American/United, and R$7.44B ($1.38B) share offering under CADE review.

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• Revenue windfall → Brazil closed 2025 with record federal revenue of ~R$2.89T ($535B); December hit R$292.72B ($54B), up sharply from November’s R$226.75B ($42B), granting Brasília rare fiscal breathing room.

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• Ibovespa surge → +2.20% to 175,589.35 on R$44.1B turnover; intraday high 177,741.56, opened at 171,817.23 (session low); global tariff de-escalation and risk rebound drove flows, with education/cyclicals leading (COGN3 +10.96%, YDUQ3 +8.91%).

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• Real strengthening → USD/BRL near R$5.284 after three-session rebound (weekly -1.6%); testing key support 5.28–5.29 on tariff relief, Greenland deal, inflation within target, and risk premium unwind.

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• Crypto stall → Bitcoin flat near $89,474 (daily range $89,296–$89,973); weekly -4.46% with low $87,193; rebound hesitant and trapped below heavy resistance $90,100–$90,400 amid mixed momentum.

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• Gold advance → Up 0.4% to $4,957.10/oz after fresh record; safe-haven bid persists amid dollar softness and lingering risk headlines.

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\nBroader risk: Tariff de-escalation eases EM pressure, but stretched real/equity gains, commodity momentum, and fintech stress could fuel volatility; fiscal windfall, aviation strength, and metals provide cushion.
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Economic Agenda for January 23, 2026

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Brazil

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• 3:30 PM BRT – CFTC BRL speculative net positions Cons: – Prev: 17.9K

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Mexico

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• 7:00 AM CST – Economic Activity (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 1.20% Prev: 1.70%

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• 7:00 AM CST – Economic Activity (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.20% Prev: 1.00%

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• 3:30 PM CST – CFTC MXN speculative net positions Cons: – Prev: 103.6K

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Argentina

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• (Agenda light; no major scheduled releases highlighted for today)

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United States

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• 9:45 AM EST – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Cons: 51.9 Prev: 51.8

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• 9:45 AM EST – Services PMI (Jan) Cons: 52.9 Prev: 52.5

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• 10:00 AM EST – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) Cons: 54.0 Prev: 52.9

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EU

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• 3:15 AM CET – French Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Act: 51.0 Cons: 50.4 Prev: 50.7

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• 3:30 AM CET – German Composite PMI (Jan) Act: 52.5 Cons: 51.8 Prev: 51.3

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• 9:53 AM CET – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

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UK

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• 2:00 AM GMT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.0% Prev: -0.1%

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• 9:23 AM GMT – Composite PMI (Jan) Cons: 51.7 Prev: 51.4

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\nImplication: Brazil’s CFTC BRL positions reflect speculative flows amid real rebound. Mexico’s Nov economic activity (softer cons) and MXN positioning inform Banxico growth/rate views.
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\nU.S. PMIs and Michigan sentiment gauge resilience; hotter prints could pressure EMFX via yields. Eurozone PMIs and Lagarde add policy nuance; UK retail beat and composite PMI test consumer/post-holiday strength. U.S. data dominate for global/EM risk tone amid tariff relief.
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Brazil’s Markets on Thursday

\nIbovespa +2.20% to 175,589.35 on R$44.1 billion turnover (elevated). Opened at session low 171,817.23, hit intraday record 177,741.56. Global de-escalation and inflows fueled rally; domestic cyclicals/education led.
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Commodity Markets

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Palladium

\nPrice: $1,908.02/oz, down 0.6%.
\nWhat’s happening: Lagging rally as auto-demand concerns outweigh safe-haven support.
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Platinum

\nPrice: $2,650.90/oz, up 0.8%.
\nWhat’s happening: Extending records on weaker U.S. asset confidence.
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Gold

\nPrice: $4,957.10/oz, up 0.4% after fresh record.
\nWhat’s happening: Safe-haven demand firm as dollar softens and headlines linger.
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Silver

\nPrice: $98.87/oz, up 2.8% after record touch.
\nWhat’s happening: Outperforms on momentum and industrial hopes; larger swings.
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Copper

\nPrice: $5.80/lb, up 0.44%.
\nWhat’s happening: Near extremes on supply tightness, but China signals softer.
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Iron ore (62% Fe CFR)

\nPrice: $106.42/ton, roughly flat.
\nWhat’s happening: Steady amid record supply vs cautious China demand.
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Aluminum

\nPrice: $3,137/ton, down 0.12%.
\nWhat’s happening: Easing post-surge, but tariffs/low stocks provide floor.
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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → USD/BRL near R$5.284 after three-session drop; tariff relief, target inflation, and central bank swaps support unwind of fear premium.
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Companies and Market

\nBrazil’s Central Bank Liquidates Will Bank As High-Yield Funding Model Unravels → Liquidated Jan 21 after Banco Master collapse; Mastercard block sped run; FGC R$46.9B payouts amid 140% CDI yields and R$11.5B triangulations.
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\nAzul’s Record Passenger Year Puts Its Restructuring Promises Under A Microscope → 31.73M passengers in 2025 (+4% YoY), international +28.1%, load 83.3%; Chapter 11 targets >$2B debt cut, $300M equity, R$7.44B offering under CADE review.
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\nIbovespa Races Toward 176,000 As The Global Tape Turns Friendly Again → +2.20% to 175,589.35 on R$44.1B turnover; de-escalation and flows drive breakout, cyclicals lead.
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\nTariff Drama Cools As The Brazilian Real Tests Key Support → USD/BRL ~5.284 testing 5.28–5.29; de-escalation and inflation support rebound.
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\nRead more 
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\nBitcoin’s Weak Rebound Signals A Market Still Trapped Below Heavy Resistance → ~$89,474 flat, weekly -4.46%; fragile below $90,100–$90,400.
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\nRead more 
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U.S. Markets on Thursday

\nS&P 500 +0.55% to 6,913.35, Dow +0.63% to 49,384.01, Nasdaq +0.91% to 23,436.02. Risk-on from tariff-relief headlines (Europe/Greenland) and supportive data; 10y yield ~4.26%.
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Regional Peers — Mixed to Positive:

\nColombia’s Rally Cools But The Boom Still Looks Intact → USD/COP ~3,609.7; COLCAP -0.46% to 2,433.78; peso strength pressures exporters but supports assets.
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\nPeso Held Its Ground Near 17.45 As Mexico Stocks Notched Fresh Highs → USD/MXN ~17.45 oversold; IPC +0.46% to 68,347.98 (five-session streak).
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\nArgentina’s Peso Trades Quietly as Parallel Gap Narrows, Stocks Add Another Leg Up → USD/ARS official ~1,450, blue ~1,495 (gap 3.1%); Merval ~3,066,435 bid.
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\nChile’s Peso Breaks Lower Again As IPSA Hits Fresh Records → USD/CLP ~868.9 oversold; IPSA +2.25% to 11,507.7 on metals tailwind.
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\nRead more 
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\nNote: Crypto markets remain cautious after recent forced selling.

Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate

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