Colombia’s Peso And Stocks Rise As A Softer Dollar Sets The Tone

Key Points

• The peso strengthened toward 3,650 per dollar as the dollar index slipped and risk appetite improved.
• Colombia’s main equity benchmark hit record highs, led by ISA, Sura Pref, and Ecopetrol.
• Markets are pricing a tighter central bank path, while pension rule talk adds a longer-term flow debate.

Colombia woke up to a familiar emerging-market setup: a softer U.S. dollar, steadier risk mood, and local assets catching a bid.

In early trade, USD/COP hovered near 3,652.6, below Colombia’s official TRM of 3,700.05. The gap matters because it signals that the market, not the fixing, is setting the tone.

Overnight, the dollar index drifted lower toward the high-98s, with analysts pointing to renewed unease about U.S. policy direction and broader “Sell America” positioning.

Monday’s onshore peso session underlined the move. Set-FX data cited in local reporting showed an average close near 3,666.61, with about $216 million traded across 271 transactions.

The session ranged from 3,652 to 3,682, and traded on next-day settlement because U.S. markets were closed for a holiday. That detail can amplify price moves by thinning cross-border liquidity.

Local rates remain a second pillar of support. Banco de la República held its policy rate at 9.25% in December, with inflation still above target.

Bank of America expects a potential 50-basis-point hike at the January 30 meeting, a view that keeps carry attractive and reduces tolerance for a weaker peso.

At the same time, debate around a draft pension decree that could lower AFP foreign allocation limits over several years has revived discussion about structural dollar demand.

Corficolombiana’s Mauricio Acevedo, cited in local reporting, argued that external borrowing inflows can also push USD/COP lower.

Equities leaned into the same mix. The MSCI COLCAP rose 1.37% to 2,377.57, a record close. Leaders included ISA (+5.02%), Sura Pref (+4.78%), and Ecopetrol (+4.62%).

Technically, momentum looks strong but stretched: short-term indicators are elevated, which often precedes consolidation rather than a clean reversal.

One caution flag sits offshore, where the U.S.-listed Colombia ETF ICOL shows about $7.08 million in net outflows over the past month.

Top Winners

• COP (stronger spot levels)
• MSCI COLCAP (record close)
• ISA
• Sura Pref
• Ecopetrol

Top Losers

• Dollar index (DXY)
• USD/COP (down day-on-day locally)
• Dollar-long positioning
• ICOL ETF flows (net outflow)
• Late momentum chasers (rising overbought risk)

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombian markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Chile’s IPSA closed the same session.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Foreign Trading Drove Brazil’s Stock Volume in 2025 as Local

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error