Steady Peso and Paused Stocks Reflect Colombia’s Quiet Strength

Banco de la República data and TradingView charts show the peso at 3,860.47 COP per USD as Colombian markets opened on September 24, 2025.

After a summer rally, stocks paused with the COLCAP index at 1,871.46 points. Behind these numbers lies a story of careful policy and shifting global winds.

When traders in Bogotá saw the peso dip below its two-week moving average on Tuesday, they braced for a slide. Instead, buyers stepped in above 3,840. That push lifted the peso back over its short-term moving average on the four-hour chart.

Technical tools picked up on that shift. The daily Relative Strength Index fell to 31, flagging oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the four-hour RSI hovered near 44, hinting at a recovery in momentum.

The MACD on the shorter chart also crossed up, suggesting that sellers were losing steam. Lower volatility on both charts, seen in tighter Bollinger Bands, underscored traders’ cautious stance.

Behind the charts, Colombia’s central bank held its key interest rate at 9.25%, citing stubborn inflation of 5.1% in August—well above its 3% goal. High rates kept foreign investors interested.

They poured 22% more money into Colombia in the second quarter than a year ago. Energy and finance sectors drew the largest shares, bringing in $1.2 billion and $900 million respectively. That cash inflow has underpinned both the peso and stock gains.

On the global stage, traders noticed the dollar’s weakness. The Dollar Index fell below 97 before bouncing back to 97.3. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described a “balanced risk” outlook for US policy but stressed he would follow the data.

That view prompted a modest dip in US yields, nudging fund managers toward emerging-market carry trades like the peso. Crude oil’s recent dip after OPEC signaled output increases also shaped local markets.

Lower oil eased some cost pressures but weighed on energy-heavy Colombian stocks. Market makers in Bogotá noted selective buying in utilities and banks, while industrial shares lagged.

Trading volumes tumbled 82% on Tuesday, with COLCAP turnover at $85.8 million and the iCOLCAP ETF at $11.9 million. Those thin flows reflected traders’ wait-and-see approach ahead of US durable goods orders and Colombia’s business confidence index, both due tomorrow.

The real story here goes beyond a single day’s moves. It highlights how Colombia balances internal challenges—sticky inflation and fiscal worries—with strong policy rates and steady foreign investment.

It shows a market that can pause to catch its breath without losing the gains of a broader upward climb. For international observers, Colombia’s calm persistence this week underscores its growing maturity as a market that draws global capital yet stays rooted in local fundamentals.

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