The Rio Times · Colombia Market Report
Morning Edition · March 25, 2026 · Covering March 24 Session
The Big Three
1
The Ecopetrol Junta ended weeks of uncertainty by backing CEO Ricardo Roa despite his March 11 influence-trafficking indictment. The board had deadlocked on March 19 and scheduled a decisive session for March 24. The decision removes the immediate governance overhang from Colombia’s largest company but does not resolve the underlying legal risk — Roa still faces criminal proceedings. The Ecopetrol shareholder assembly on March 27 will now vote on the proposed COP 110/share dividend, roughly half of last year’s COP 214, reflecting the company’s 39.5% drop in 2025 net income.
2
COLCAP posted its second consecutive gain, rising 0.31% to 2,237.66, even as Wall Street reversed Monday’s rally and fell 0.36%. The index opened at 2,231, climbed to 2,261 intraday, and pulled back to close near the session midpoint. The resilience despite U.S. weakness signals that the Roa resolution and peso strength are providing domestic support. Iran’s renewed missile strikes on Israel on Tuesday undercut the ceasefire optimism from Monday, but Colombian equities held their ground.
3
The peso firmed below COP 3,700 as the new TRM for March 25 was set at COP 3,700.67 — down COP 4.20 (−0.11%) from the prior rate. The dollar spot market closed around COP 3,700, continuing the downtrend from last week’s 3,704.87 level. Meanwhile, the government eliminated the industrial diesel subsidy via decree, seeking to reduce the COP 10.7 trillion fuel stabilization fund deficit. Energy Minister Palma also signaled that gasoline prices may stop declining and could rise — a development that, if enacted, would add to near-term inflation but improve fiscal accounts.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Close | Chg |
| MSCI COLCAP | 2,237.66 | +0.31% |
| USD/COP (TRM Mar 25) | 3,700.67 | −0.11% |
| Brent Crude | $99.54 | −0.40% |
| S&P 500 | 6,557.19 | −0.36% |
| BanRep Rate | 10.25% | unch |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.39% | +5 bps |
02 Equities
The Colombia stock market COLCAP today extended its recovery streak to two sessions, gaining 0.31% to 2,237.66 as the Ecopetrol governance overhang was partially resolved and the peso continued to strengthen. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Colombian stock market and Latin American financial markets. The Corte Constitucional’s ruling striking down the Plan de Desarrollo norm that allowed ISA to participate in energy generation weighed on the utility sector, while the diesel subsidy elimination signaled fiscal consolidation.
| Top Gainers | Chg |
| Ecopetrol | +1.8% |
| Celsia | +1.5% |
| Pf Grupo Sura | +1.2% |
| Promigas | +0.9% |
| GEB | +0.7% |
| Top Losers | Chg |
| ISA | −2.3% |
| Pf Bancolombia | −1.4% |
| Terpel | −1.1% |
| Grupo Argos | −0.8% |
| Cementos Argos | −0.6% |
Ecopetrol rallied on the Junta’s decision to back Roa, clearing the immediate governance cloud ahead of Thursday’s shareholder assembly. ISA was the session’s major laggard after the Corte Constitucional struck down the Plan de Desarrollo provision allowing the company to participate in energy generation — a ruling that narrows ISA’s growth optionality. The government’s 2.6% GDP growth projection for 2026 and average dollar forecast of COP 3,801 remain consensus-aligned, though the incoming fiscal deficit — which El Colombiano described as “comparable to the 1990s and the pandemic” — raises questions about sustainability.
03 Currency
The peso continued to firm as the new TRM for March 25 was set at COP 3,700.67, down COP 4.20 from the prior rate. The dollar spot closed around COP 3,700 on Tuesday. The elimination of the industrial diesel subsidy is a net positive for the peso — it reduces the fuel stabilization fund’s COP 10.7 trillion deficit, improving fiscal credibility. However, Minister Palma’s signal that gasoline prices may stop declining and could increase adds a potential inflation wrinkle. The Colombia-Ecuador trade meeting this week to de-escalate the bilateral tariff war is a positive for trade balance expectations.
04 Technical Analysis
The second consecutive green candle at 2,237.66 is building a base above the 2,220 zone. The MACD histogram at 5.23 is positive for the second session, with signal lines at −30.09 and −35.32 still below zero but converging — a bullish crossover is approaching. RSI at 48.41/41.72 has recovered to the neutral zone. The 200-day SMA at 1,990 sits 11.1% below, confirming the primary uptrend. The 2,257 level (20-day EMA) is the immediate resistance; a close above confirms the short-term reversal.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Price | Source |
| Resistance 2 | 2,302 | Prior consolidation |
| Resistance 1 | 2,258 | 20-day EMA |
| Tuesday Close | 2,237.66 | March 24, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 2,205 | Prior session low zone |
| Support 2 | 1,990 | 200-day SMA |
06 Global Context
Brent stabilized near $99.54 after Monday’s 11% crash, but Iran’s renewed missile strikes on Israel on Tuesday undercut the ceasefire narrative. Wall Street reversed Monday’s rally — S&P 500 fell 0.36%, with the energy sector the only gainer. US 10-year yields rose to 4.39% after a weak two-year auction, reducing Fed rate-cut expectations. Macquarie warned that if Hormuz remains closed through April, Brent could reach $150.
07 Looking Ahead
Thursday’s Ecopetrol shareholder assembly (March 27) will vote on the COP 110/share dividend — approval is widely expected but could generate volatility if minority shareholders push back against the near-halving from last year’s COP 214. The Colombia-Ecuador trade meeting and any progress on the bilateral tariff war will be closely watched. Trump’s five-day ceasefire window expires Saturday, making late-week oil moves the dominant global variable. The 2026 presidential election cycle continues to intensify, with the four leading candidates’ economic platforms now under market scrutiny.
08 Verdict
Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. Two consecutive gains, MACD histogram positive and converging toward a crossover, peso below 3,700, and the Roa governance overhang resolved. A close above 2,258 confirms the short-term reversal and targets 2,302. A ceasefire collapse and Brent back above $112 would revert to Neutral. The shareholder assembly Thursday and ceasefire window expiry Saturday are the near-term catalysts.