The Big Three
The IPSA closed at 10,417.19 (+0.19%), posting a second consecutive session of outperformance against its LATAM peers. While Mexico’s IPC fell −0.56%, Colombia’s COLCAP dropped −0.93%, and Wall Street plunged −1.67%, Santiago held its ground.
The Kast government faces growing political pressure on energy costs. Diario Financiero reported the surge in energy prices is now directly impacting the president’s approval, complicating his fiscal reduction agenda and forcing a choice between subsidies and spending discipline.
The BCCh’s 4.50% rate freeze holds firm after Tuesday’s decision, with swap rates continuing to rise as the market prices in the possibility of hikes rather than cuts. The IPoM stagflation warning — higher inflation, lower growth — remains the macro backdrop for Chilean assets.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| IPSA Close | 10,417.19 | +0.19% |
| IPSA ATH (Feb 12) | 11,721.38 | −11.13% |
| BCCh Policy Rate | 4.50% | Held (Mar 24) |
| Brent Crude (May) | USD 110 | Jul 2022 high |
| S&P 500 | ~6,370 | −1.67% |
| Dow Jones | — | −1.72% (correction) |
02 Equities
The Chile stock market today capped the week with a modest +0.19% gain to 10,417.19, extending Santiago’s remarkable run of outperformance against the region. The IPSA has now held above 10,300 for three consecutive sessions after touching a four-month low at 10,133 on Tuesday. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Chile’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
The session saw the index test 10,500 intraday before pulling back, confirming that level as near-term resistance. The narrow range (10,380–10,500) and small green close suggest consolidation rather than a directional move. Volume remained subdued as traders positioned ahead of the weekend.
Diario Financiero reported growing political pressure on President Kast from surging energy costs, which are directly impacting household budgets and eroding his approval ratings. The dilemma — expand fuel subsidies at the cost of fiscal targets or let consumers absorb the hit — is becoming the central policy challenge for the new administration.
03 Currency
The peso remained stable on Friday despite the global dollar strength (DXY +0.22%). Copper continues to provide structural support — the metal’s resilience above US$5/lb anchors the peso and Chile‘s fiscal position. The BCCh’s 4.50% rate provides a carry advantage, though swap markets are now pricing the possibility of hikes rather than cuts, which would further support the currency.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P IPSA Daily
The index opened at 10,397.03 — exactly at Thursday’s close — rallied to 10,500.49, pulled back to 10,379.92, and closed at 10,417.19. The candle is a small bullish body with a long upper shadow, signaling buying interest at the open but resistance at 10,500.
The MACD histogram at 11.01 has turned marginally positive for the first time this month — a tentative stabilization signal. RSI at 44.65/42.51 remains below 50 but has ticked up from Thursday’s 43.84. The 200-day SMA at 9,608 provides a structural floor well below. The critical test is whether 10,400 holds as a base or breaks down toward 10,168.
05 Key Levels
| Level | IPSA |
| Resistance 3 | 10,540.46 |
| Resistance 2 | 10,466.74 |
| Resistance 1 | 10,427.19 |
| Current Close | 10,417.19 |
| Support 1 | 10,405.50 |
| Support 2 | 10,168.54 |
| Support 3 | 9,607.88 |
06 Global Context
Wall Street closed the week at session lows — Dow −1.72% (now in correction), S&P 500 −1.67%, Nasdaq −2.15%. Brent hit USD 110. Trump extended the Iran deadline to April 6. Chile’s ability to close green while the Dow entered correction territory is the standout performance of the week across all four LATAM markets.
07 Looking Ahead
The IPSA‘s relative resilience suggests the market has absorbed the IPoM shock and found a floor around 10,400. Copper prices and the Kast government’s energy policy response are the two domestic catalysts. If copper reclaims US$6/lb, the IPSA could push toward 10,540; if Brent stays above $100 and energy subsidies expand, fiscal concerns would cap any rally.
The second-half March CPI reading will be critical for the BCCh’s next move. A moderation from the first-half spike would relieve pressure; a continuation would force the market to price in rate hikes — a scenario that would strengthen the peso but weigh on growth-sensitive equities.
08 Verdict
Friday’s +0.19% close was the best relative performance in the region for the second session running. The IPSA tested 10,500, pulled back, and settled just above the 10,400 base that has held all week. The MACD turning positive and RSI ticking up are the first constructive signals since the sell-off began, though both remain below key thresholds.
Bias: Neutral with improving undertone. Chile is building a base at 10,400 while peers continue to deteriorate. A weekly close above 10,500 would shift the bias to cautiously bullish. The risk is a Brent spike above $120 that reignites the energy-cost crisis and breaks the floor.