Colombia Faces 90% Gas Price Hike by 2026 as Domestic Production Plummets

Recent research from Fedesarrollo, a leading Colombian economic think tank, reveals that natural gas prices could surge by up to 90% by 2026 due to growing import dependency.

The country’s energy security faces mounting challenges as domestic reserves dwindle and policy restrictions limit new exploration. Colombia’s natural gas production has fallen dramatically over the past decade.

Official data from the National Hydrocarbon Agency shows a 43% decline in daily production since 2013. The country’s proven gas reserves now stand at only 2.4 trillion cubic feet, equivalent to just 6.1 years of consumption.

Experts project growing supply deficits in the coming years. Ecopetrol, Colombia’s state-owned energy company, recently raised its deficit projections to 120 billion BTU daily in 2025 and 300 billion BTU in 2026.

These numbers significantly exceed earlier estimates and highlight the worsening situation. The price impact will vary by region due to infrastructure limitations.

Bucaramanga residents face the steepest increases at 91.5% if Colombia becomes fully import-dependent. Bogotá could see tariffs rise by 89.3% as imported gas costs up to three times more than domestically produced gas.

Colombia’s Energy Policy Fuels Gas Import Surge

Colombia has already turned to international markets to meet demand. Gas imports increased by 163.5% in volume last year, reaching 1.8 million metric tons. Nearly 60% came from the United States, with the remainder from Trinidad and Tobago.

Critics point to President Gustavo Petro’s energy transition policies as a key factor. His administration has halted new exploration contracts while domestic resources diminish.

Energy experts argue this approach undermines Colombia’s economic stability and paradoxically increases carbon emissions, as imported LNG has a larger carbon footprint than domestic production.

Several factors have contributed to the production decline. The government take from oil revenues increased from 63% to 80% after the 2022 tax reform.

Complex environmental licensing processes and regulatory delays have reduced exploration activity from over 110 wells annually between 2010-2014 to just 34 last year. Industry leaders advocate for infrastructure improvements to manage the crisis.

Luz Stella Murgas, president of Naturgas, emphasizes the urgent need for bidirectional flow capabilities between key transport points. Without new exploration contracts and increased drilling, Colombia’s gas self-sufficiency remains at serious risk.