Brazil’s Power Brokers Turn Their Backs on Lula and Eye Tarcísio as the Next Leader

Brazil’s political scene is shifting as the Centrão, a powerful group of center-right parties, distances itself from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and starts looking to São Paulo’s governor, Tarcísio de Freitas, as a possible future president.

The Centrão acts as a kingmaker in Brazil’s Congress. It does not stick to one ideology but instead supports whoever can help its members gain influence and resources.

Recently, the bloc’s leaders joined forces, creating the largest group in the Chamber of Deputies with 109 members and 14 senators. This move gives them more power to decide which laws pass and which fail.

President Lula, who returned to office in 2023, now faces serious problems. His party, the Workers’ Party, controls only a small part of Congress. To pass laws, Lula needs the support of groups like the Centrão.

But as Lula’s popularity drops and his government faces scandals—like a major fraud at the social security agency (INSS), where billions of reais disappeared—the Centrão is less willing to help him.

Instead, the bloc is pressuring Congress to block Lula’s new tax increases, which business groups say could hurt the economy by making loans more expensive and slowing growth.

At the same time, the Centrão is talking with Tarcísio de Freitas, a popular conservative governor, about supporting him in the 2026 presidential election. Tarcísio’s approval ratings are strong, and many see him as a fresh alternative to Lula.

The Centrão’s leaders want to show they can control the political game. They are forming alliances with other parties and are even considering leaving Lula’s coalition.

If they do, Lula will find it even harder to govern. Some analysts say the government could become stuck, unable to pass important laws or reforms.

The most public humiliation for Lula came on June 16, 2025, when the Chamber of Deputies voted 346 to 97 to fast-track a bill that could cancel his government’s recent tax hikes on loans, investments, and online betting.

This overwhelming vote included support from parties that hold cabinet positions, showing just how isolated Lula has become. Lawmakers, including some who usually back the government, argued that raising taxes would hurt businesses and consumers.

The Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta, said the vote sent a clear message: Congress will not accept more tax hikes just to fill budget gaps, and the government must now present real spending cuts if it wants to keep its fiscal plans alive.

This political drama matters for everyone watching Brazil’s economy. Investors and businesses worry that a weak government could mean more uncertainty, less investment, and slower growth.

With public debt high and inflation still a problem, Brazil needs stable leadership. The next presidential election is still a year away, but the battle lines are already clear.

The Centrão’s moves show that, in Brazil, the support of this bloc can make or break presidents. As they turn away from Lula and flirt with Tarcísio, the country’s future direction hangs in the balance.