Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Key Facts
- The Selic wager has shifted from the August cut to the next Copom meeting scheduled for 15-16 September, with the benchmark rate now at 14.00% per year after four consecutive quarter-point reductions.
- Today’s domestic data is the morning’s hard catalyst with the IPC-Fipe São Paulo inflation reading due at 08:00 BRT and two Industrial Production prints due at 12:00 BRT, both likely to steer rate expectations at the open.
- B3 executed a major legal victory overnight as the Carf tax appeals court cancelled roughly R$2.2 billion in federal tax assessments related to its 2016 and 2025 sales of CME Group shares.
- The Ibovespa enters today with a tailwind of ten straight up sessions but it remains about 9.5% below its 52-week high, leaving room for domestic momentum to extend if data cooperates.
- Investors are watching Cury’s social-media surge after its 40-fold August jump in online mentions which coincided with a rise in the candidate’s polling and could keep consumption-linked names in focus today.
Today’s Focus
Brazil’s pre-market on Wednesday, 2 September is about two things: the shifting Selic wager after August’s cut, and the hard domestic data that lands before and around midday.
The central bank’s Copom delivered a quarter-point cut to 14.00% on 5 August, the fourth straight reduction, and B3 Copom options had priced that move with roughly 75% probability before the decision.
Attention now turns to the next meeting on 15-16 September, where Reuters reports that analysts see the Selic held at 14.00% into early 2027, with some pricing the possibility of another cut.
Today’s IPC-Fipe inflation print at 08:00 BRT and the Industrial Production figures at noon are the key domestic releases that can shift those bets before the market digests the US session.
The specific names in play include B3 itself, after its R$2.2 billion Carf tax victory, and the consumption-sensitive names tied to the Cury polling story.
The Ibovespa enters the session with a strong run behind it, but the immediate direction will be set by the data and how traders read the September Copom path.
What matters today. The morning’s inflation and industry data will set the tone for B3 and recalibrate the September Selic wager before the US session takes over.
Today’s Economic Events
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 179,722 | +1.30% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,631 | -0.71% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1558 | -0.54% |
Ibovespa — Source: RT close, 2026-09-01. Figures rendered directly from the feed.
01 The setup in one read
Brazil’s market opens on Wednesday with the Selic at 14.00% after August’s quarter-point cut, and the question is whether the next move comes in September or later.
Copom options had priced the August reduction at roughly 75% probability, with a small tail showing about 21% for no change, and the decision landed in line with the consensus.
Today’s IPC-Fipe inflation reading at 08:00 BRT will be the first indicator of whether the disinflation trend remains intact, following the prior month’s negative print.
The Industrial Production numbers at 12:00 BRT offer the second data point, testing whether the economy is cooling enough to justify another rate cut at the 15-16 September Copom meeting.
The evidence points to a domestic-driven open, with the IPC-Fipe and Industrial Production prints as the first real tests of the disinflation narrative that underpins the September rate-cut bets.
B3’s Carf victory removes a legal overhang and could support the shares, while the Cury polling story keeps consumer names in focus.
The Ibovespa’s ten-session winning streak and its decoupling from Wall Street suggest local momentum is strong, but a soft data print or a hawkish Fed speaker could quickly unwind that.
The variable to watch is whether the noon industry data confirms the cooling trend that would justify another Selic cut in September.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Instrument | Last close | Indicated | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 179,722 (+1.30%) | — | Opens with ten-session win streak; depends on 08:00 inflation and noon industry data |
| USD/BRL | 5.1558 (-0.54%) | — | A softer real ahead of data would signal rate-cut bets are being trimmed |
| B3SA3 | — | — | Carf tax victory could lift the shares at the open; R$2.2 billion in assessments cancelled |
| PETR4 | — | — | Leading turnover at R$2.3 billion; oil-price and FX moves set the tone for the heavyweight |
The board shows the real continuing to strengthen, which fits the easing-rate picture, but today’s inflation and industry prints could easily reverse that if they surprise on the upside.
B3’s own shares are a specific story to watch after the overnight Carf win, since a R$2.2 billion legal cloud has been lifted, even though the company said the decision has no financial impact.
The absence of visible futures indications means the open will be driven by the data releases more than by pre-positioning in the index contracts. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
179,722.48
+1.30%
+21.85%
177,418.78
168,310
167,142
—
USD/BRL
5.16
+0.01%
-5.13%
5.16
5.18
5.14
—
EUR/BRL
5.95
+1.01%
-5.83%
5.89
5.98
5.94
—
SELIC
14.00%
—
—
—
—
—
BRENT
88.88
-0.03%
+34.42%
88.91
90.07
88.12
29,713
WTI
83.11
-0.11%
+31.57%
83.20
84.35
82.40
166,848
IRON ORE
161.91
—
+58.10%
161.91
161.91
1
GOLD
4,461
+1.78%
+33.20%
4,383
4,503
4,421
139,824
SILVER
65.59
+1.26%
+73.05%
64.77
66.98
64.81
46,406
LITHIUM
75.20
+1.47%
+62.95%
74.11
75.80
75.08
89,275
SOY
1,184
+3.20%
+17.05%
1,148
1,199
1,168
163,179
CORN
480.50
+10.02%
+29.34%
436.75
480.75
459.50
341,248
WHEAT
655.00
+3.93%
+29.70%
630.25
657.75
631.50
128,793
COFFEE
317.25
-5.51%
+0.67%
335.75
321.20
313.55
21,747
SUGAR
16.43
-1.79%
-3.01%
16.73
17.11
16.22
171,992
ORANGE JUICE
138.55
-0.47%
-45.38%
139.20
141.05
137.50
703
COTTON
85.03
+2.33%
+26.78%
83.09
82.90
81.96
16,546
BEEF
223.60
-3.93%
-5.18%
232.75
226.40
223.00
16,126
CATTLE
339.10
-3.16%
-1.82%
350.17
345.50
338.60
10,164
COCOA
5,719
+3.18%
-34.96%
5,543
5,779
5,574
26,773
PETR4
41.64
-0.05%
+35.19%
41.66
41.97
41.15
41,499,400
VALE3
72.97
+0.83%
+30.75%
72.37
73.54
72.66
17,658,000
SUZB3
41.33
+2.35%
-23.55%
40.38
41.48
40.35
3,914,900
KLABIN
17.69
+0.80%
-2.95%
17.55
17.74
17.48
2,057,400
SLCE3
13.34
+0.30%
-12.25%
13.30
13.42
13.20
1,454,200
ABEV3
14.89
-0.80%
+21.91%
15.01
15.07
14.81
16,453,100
ITUB4
38.60
-1.03%
+4.57%
39.00
39.34
38.39
29,487,800
BBDC4
16.85
+0.36%
+3.50%
16.79
16.90
16.67
19,416,900
BBAS3
19.37
+0.47%
+0.73%
19.28
19.44
19.16
11,069,200
B3SA3
14.26
-0.21%
+12.73%
14.29
14.47
14.11
33,037,800
WEGE3
47.59
+0.49%
+29.99%
47.36
48.08
47.36
3,364,600
PRIO3
59.14
-0.19%
+50.67%
59.25
59.81
58.74
3,325,600
RENT3
34.68
-0.09%
+0.84%
34.71
34.96
34.35
7,979,100
AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%
-53.76%
16.32
16.42
15.82
1,330,300
CSNA3
4.30
+0.47%
-42.65%
4.28
4.41
4.26
10,076,100
GGBR4
24.69
+2.19%
+51.38%
24.16
24.85
24.18
7,047,600
ENEV3
24.21
-1.38%
+70.49%
24.55
24.64
23.99
9,297,000
LREN3
11.87
-1.33%
-28.65%
12.03
12.17
11.83
9,683,300
03 On the B3 radar today — IPC-Fipe inflation, Industrial Production, and Carf tax win
| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| IPC-Fipe inflation | 08:00 BRT | First August inflation read; prior was -0.03% month-on-month; a soft print supports September rate-cut bets |
| Industrial Production (monthly) | 12:00 BRT | Expected 0.8% month-on-month, prior 1.7%; a miss strengthens the cooling-economy case for more Selic cuts |
| Industrial Production (yearly) | 12:00 BRT | Expected 1.2%, prior -1.8%; the base-effect comparison matters for the broader growth picture |
| B3 Carf victory | Overnight | R$2.2 billion in tax assessments cancelled; company says no impact but the share may react to the reduced legal risk |
The two Industrial Production releases at noon are the same data point expressed monthly and yearly, so traders will read them together for the pace of the economic slowdown.
The IPC-Fipe is a São Paulo city inflation index and often arrives before the broader national IPCA, making it an early signal for the price trend that the central bank watches closely.
The B3 Carf decision is a company-specific item that removes a long-running legal overhang, even if the company frames it as having no financial consequence.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
The Selic now stands at 14.00% per year after the 5 August decision, the fourth consecutive quarter-point cut in this cycle.
Before that meeting, B3 Copom options priced roughly 75.5% odds of a 0.25-point cut, about 21% for no change, and only about 2.3% for a larger half-point move.
The next Copom meeting is set for 15-16 September, and Reuters reports that analysts expect the Selic to be held at 14.00% until early 2027, with some seeing the possibility of another cut in September.
Today’s IPC-Fipe and Industrial Production data will test both sides of that debate: softer inflation supports a cut, while firmer activity argues for patience.
05 Corporate stories to watch today
B3 itself is the headline name after the Carf appeals court definitively cancelled roughly R$2.2 billion in federal tax assessments tied to its sales of CME Group shares in 2016 and 2025.
The company said the decision will have no financial impact, but the reduced legal risk could still draw buyers to the shares at the open.
On the politics-meets-consumer side, Exame reports that Cury’s social-media reach grew 40 times in August after the Band debate, a surge that coincided with a jump in the candidate’s polling numbers.
That story keeps the consumption-sensitive sectors in focus, as any political shift with spending implications feeds directly into expectations for retail and services names.
ArcelorMittal Brazil is also in the news after approving a R$4 billion to R$5 billion investment in its Tubarão steel complex in Espírito Santo, a surprise given the sector’s weak moment.
06 The levels to watch at the open
The Ibovespa’s key level is whether it can extend the ten-session winning streak shown on the board, which is a rare display of local momentum decoupled from Wall Street’s negative close.
For the real, the board shows USD/BRL below 5.16, and any move back toward 5.20 after the data would signal that traders are scaling back September rate-cut expectations.
On the data side, an IPC-Fipe print at or below the prior -0.03% month-on-month would reinforce the disinflation story, while a positive print would force a quick repricing in interest-rate futures.
The Industrial Production number at noon is the second wave: a monthly figure below the 0.8% consensus would argue that the economy is slowing fast enough for another cut, while a beat would make the 15-16 September decision much less certain.
07 What to watch
- IPC-Fipe inflation at 08:00 BRT: The first hard read on August São Paulo prices; a negative print supports September rate-cut bets, a positive print unwinds them.
- Industrial Production at 12:00 BRT: Monthly and yearly prints together show whether the slowdown is accelerating enough to justify more Selic cuts.
- B3SA3 shares after the Carf win: The R$2.2 billion tax victory removes a legal overhang; even with ‘no impact’ guidance, the stock could react.
- September Copom pricing: Traders will use today’s data to adjust the probability of a cut at the 15-16 September meeting, with the Selic now at 14.00%.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Selic rate today?
The Selic is 14.00% per year after the Copom cut it by 0.25 percentage point on 5 August 2026, the fourth straight reduction.
When is the next Copom meeting?
The next meeting is scheduled for 15-16 September 2026, according to the Copom calendar.
What is the IPC-Fipe?
It is the São Paulo city inflation index, released monthly, and often serves as an early signal for Brazil’s broader national inflation trend.
What was the B3 Carf victory about?
The Carf tax appeals court cancelled roughly R$2.2 billion in federal tax assessments related to B3’s sales of CME Group shares in 2016 and 2025.
Market data: RT
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