Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 9, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

\n

\n \t
• IPCA inflation release today → key test for Selic path after broad gauge eased in 2025

\n \t

• Industrial production weakness persists → high rates & trade frictions bite

\n \t

• Ibovespa awaits IPCA & U.S. payrolls → oil-driven lift yesterday, stretched momentum

\n \t

• Major U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report → pivotal for Fed outlook, dollar, EM flows

\n \t

• Broader risk: Payroll surprise could trigger volatility in rates/FX/equities

\n

\nLatin America’s markets continue the trading week, with Brazil’s B3 in São Paulo set to provide the region’s deepest liquidity for equities, futures, and currency products. Mexico’s Bolsa Mexicana de Valores is also scheduled to open normally.
\n

Top Story: Broad Inflation Gauge Fell in 2025 – But That’s Only Half the Story

\nBrazil’s broad inflation gauge eased in 2025, reflecting softer food/energy pressures and high Selic anchoring expectations.
\n
\nHowever, core components remained sticky, services inflation elevated, and fiscal risks kept upside bias alive. Today’s IPCA release is critical — consensus sees MoM 0.35%, YoY 4.30% (down from 4.46%).
\n
\n

\n
\nAny miss higher could delay rate cuts, pressure real, and weigh on equities. High rates continue to choke industrial activity (see below), exposing trade-off between inflation control and growth.
\n

Broad inflation gauge eased but core sticky

\nRead more 
\n

Industrial production stalls again due to high rates

\nRead more 
\n

Economic Agenda for January 9, 2026

\n

Brazil

\n

\n \t
• 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.35% Prev: 0.18%

\n \t

• 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 4.30% Prev: 4.46%

\n

\n

Mexico

\n

\n \t
• \n
  07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.0% Prev: 0.7%

\n \t

• 07:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) Cons: -1.2% Prev: -0.4%

\n

\n

Argentina

\n

\n \t
• No major releases today.

\n

\n

Chile

\n

\n \t
• No major releases today.

\n

\n

Colombia

\n

\n \t
• No major releases today.

\n

\n

United States

\n

\n \t
• 08:30 AM BRT – Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) Cons: 66K Prev: 64K

\n \t

• 08:30 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Dec) Cons: 4.5% Prev: 4.6%

\n \t

• 08:30 AM BRT – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.1%

\n \t

• 08:30 AM BRT – Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 3.6% Prev: 3.5%

\n \t

• 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) Cons: 53.5 Prev: 52.9

\n

\n

EU

\n

\n \t
• Various industrial/retail data (e.g., German Industrial Production MoM +0.8% Act vs +0.3% Cons, German Trade Balance €16.3B Act vs €13.1B Cons).

\n

\n

UK

\n

\n \t
• No major releases today.

\n

\n

China

\n

\n \t
• No major releases today.

\n

\nImplication: Today’s IPCA is the main domestic event — softer print supports gradual Selic easing narrative, bolstering real & equities.
\n
\nU.S. NFP is the global highlight: strong jobs/earnings could reinforce “higher-for-longer” Fed, firm USD, pressure EM currencies & commodities. Softer data would ease dollar, support risk assets including BRL.
\n

Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Thursday, January 8, 2026)

\nIbovespa +0.59% to 162,936.48 on R$23.4 billion turnover. Oil surge (Brent March +3.39% to $61.99) lifted Petrobras/energy stocks, offsetting Vale weakness (iron ore soft).
\n
\nBanks recovered modestly. Early Friday mini-futures 163,745–165,080 (~1% above cash), USD/BRL near 5.388. Charts bullish but weekly momentum stretched — surprises in IPCA/NFP could trigger fast moves.
\n

Ibovespa awaits IPCA and U.S. payrolls after oil lift

\nRead more 
\n

Commodity Markets

\n

\n \t
• Gold – Paused near recent highs after new-year surge; spot around $4,480–$4,490/oz this morning, consolidating as traders weigh war risks, Fed bets, index flows.

\n \t

• Silver – Sudden plunge exposes thin liquidity & leverage; down sharply in recent sessions.

\n \t

• Copper – Record run meets reality as tariff premium warps global flows; remains elevated but volatile.

\n \t

• Platinum – [No specific fresh comment; geopolitics/auto demand in focus].

\n \t

• Palladium – [No specific fresh comment; auto policy sensitivity].

\n \t

• Aluminium – [No specific fresh comment; inventory/political drivers].

\n \t

• Iron Ore – Sentiment stayed soft yesterday, limiting Vale gains; Dalian contracts under pressure.

\n

\n

Gold pauses after new-year surge

\nRead more
\n

Silver sudden plunge exposes liquidity issues

\nRead more 
\n

Copper record run meets tariff reality

\nRead more 
\n

Currency

\nBrazilian Real → Dollar holds near R$5.39 as payroll & Brazil inflation loom; steady amid mixed global tone.
\n

Dollar holds near R$5.39 ahead of payrolls & inflation

\nRead more 
\n

Companies and Market

\nBanco Master audit finds 74% of payroll loans lacked proof, exposing major fraud risks → ongoing pressure on banking sector confidence. No other major individual headlines.
\n

Banco Master audit reveals major payroll loan fraud risks

\nRead more 
\n

U.S. Markets Yesterday (Thursday, January 8, 2026)

\nMixed close: Dow rallied ~0.6% on industrials/defense strength, S&P 500 near flat, Nasdaq -0.4% as tech lagged. Small caps outperformed. Cooling after early gains; cautious ahead of NFP.
\n
\nRegional Peers — Mixed/cautious: Colombia peso firm/Colcap near records pre-payrolls | Mexico peso steady near 18/stocks rally selective | Argentina calm peso masks debt-day strain | Chile record copper lifts markets but strong dollar caps peso.
\n

Colombia peso firm & Colcap near records

\nRead more 
\n

Mexico peso steady near 18, selective stock rally

\nRead more 
\n

Argentina calm peso masks debt-day strain

\nRead more 
\n

Chile copper record lifts markets, dollar caps peso

\nRead more 
\n
\nNote: Crypto bounce hits speed bump — ETF outflows stall Bitcoin near $90,000; Zcash governance shock spillover adds pressure.
\n

Crypto bounce stalls near $90k with ETF outflows

\nRead more 

Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate

Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence

Brazil Morning Call — Live Board

B3 · pre-open setup
Aug 27, 2026 · 02:01

Ibovespa · benchmark

174,586.26
+0.01%

L 167,142day rangeH 168,310

+21.85% over 12 months

Market breadth · 33 names

52% advancing

17 ▲ advancing16 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs

USD / BRL

5.16

+0.01%

EUR / BRL

5.95

+1.01%

Selic rate

14.00%

·

Brent crude

88.88

-0.03%

Iron ore

161.91

·

Sector heatmap · average move today

Materials

+1.58%

SUZB3, KLABIN

Mining

+1.16%

VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4

Other

+0.76%

BRENT, WTI, IRON ORE, GOLD

Industrials

+0.20%

WEGE3, RENT3

Financials

-0.10%

ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3

Energy

-0.12%

PETR4, PRIO3

Consumer Staples

-0.25%

SLCE3, ABEV3

Utilities

-1.38%

ENEV3

Consumer Disc.

-1.98%

AZZA3, LREN3

Latin America scoreboard

IndexLastTodayStrength

IbovespaBrazil
174,586.26
+0.01%

S&P/BMV IPCMexico
66,644.91
+0.53%

S&P IPSAChile
11,369.18
-0.71%

S&P MERVALArgentina
3,024,971
+0.53%

MSCI COLCAPColombia
2,504.68
-0.15%

BVL S&P PerúPeru
60,449.35
+0.30%

Full instrument board

Instrument	Last	Change	YoY	Prev.	High	Low	Volume
IBOV	174,586.26	+0.01%	+21.85%	174,576.80	168,310	167,142	—
USD/BRL	5.16	+0.01%	-5.13%	5.16	5.18	5.14	—
EUR/BRL	5.95	+1.01%	-5.83%	5.89	5.98	5.94	—
SELIC	14.00%		—	—	—	—	—
BRENT	88.88	-0.03%	+34.42%	88.91	90.07	88.12	29,713
WTI	83.11	-0.11%	+31.57%	83.20	84.35	82.40	166,848
IRON ORE	161.91	—	+58.10%		161.91	161.91	1
GOLD	4,461	+1.78%	+33.20%	4,383	4,503	4,421	139,824
SILVER	65.59	+1.26%	+73.05%	64.77	66.98	64.81	46,406
LITHIUM	75.20	+1.47%	+62.95%	74.11	75.80	75.08	89,275
SOY	1,184	+3.20%	+17.05%	1,148	1,199	1,168	163,179
CORN	480.50	+10.02%	+29.34%	436.75	480.75	459.50	341,248
WHEAT	655.00	+3.93%	+29.70%	630.25	657.75	631.50	128,793
COFFEE	317.25	-5.51%	+0.67%	335.75	321.20	313.55	21,747
SUGAR	16.43	-1.79%	-3.01%	16.73	17.11	16.22	171,992
ORANGE JUICE	138.55	-0.47%	-45.38%	139.20	141.05	137.50	703
COTTON	85.03	+2.33%	+26.78%	83.09	82.90	81.96	16,546
BEEF	223.60	-3.93%	-5.18%	232.75	226.40	223.00	16,126
CATTLE	339.10	-3.16%	-1.82%	350.17	345.50	338.60	10,164
COCOA	5,719	+3.18%	-34.96%	5,543	5,779	5,574	26,773
PETR4	41.64	-0.05%	+35.19%	41.66	41.97	41.15	41,499,400
VALE3	72.97	+0.83%	+30.75%	72.37	73.54	72.66	17,658,000
SUZB3	41.33	+2.35%	-23.55%	40.38	41.48	40.35	3,914,900
KLABIN	17.69	+0.80%	-2.95%	17.55	17.74	17.48	2,057,400
SLCE3	13.34	+0.30%	-12.25%	13.30	13.42	13.20	1,454,200
ABEV3	14.89	-0.80%	+21.91%	15.01	15.07	14.81	16,453,100
ITUB4	38.60	-1.03%	+4.57%	39.00	39.34	38.39	29,487,800
BBDC4	16.85	+0.36%	+3.50%	16.79	16.90	16.67	19,416,900
BBAS3	19.37	+0.47%	+0.73%	19.28	19.44	19.16	11,069,200
B3SA3	14.26	-0.21%	+12.73%	14.29	14.47	14.11	33,037,800
WEGE3	47.59	+0.49%	+29.99%	47.36	48.08	47.36	3,364,600
PRIO3	59.14	-0.19%	+50.67%	59.25	59.81	58.74	3,325,600
RENT3	34.68	-0.09%	+0.84%	34.71	34.96	34.35	7,979,100
AZZA3	15.89	-2.63%	-53.76%	16.32	16.42	15.82	1,330,300
CSNA3	4.30	+0.47%	-42.65%	4.28	4.41	4.26	10,076,100
GGBR4	24.69	+2.19%	+51.38%	24.16	24.85	24.18	7,047,600
ENEV3	24.21	-1.38%	+70.49%	24.55	24.64	23.99	9,297,000
LREN3	11.87	-1.33%	-28.65%	12.03	12.17	11.83	9,683,300

Largest moves today

CORN
480.50
+10.02%

COFFEE
317.25
-5.51%

WHEAT
655.00
+3.93%

BEEF
223.60
-3.93%

SOY
1,184
+3.20%

COCOA
5,719
+3.18%

CATTLE
339.10
-3.16%

AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%

The session read

The Ibovespa rose 0.01%, with breadth positive — 17 of 33 names higher. Materials led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.

From The Rio Times

Related coverage · 27 Aug 2026

Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Thursday, August 27, 2026

Read →

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

Daily Brief

The morning intel from across Latin America. Free.

Subscribe

By subscribing you agree to our privacy policy. We never share your email.