Colombia’s Peso Holds Firm as COLCAP Stays Near Records Ahead of U.S. Payrolls

Colombia’s peso stayed firm into Friday’s opening while equities held near record levels, with traders focused on the U.S. payrolls report due later in the day.

Key Points

1. USD/COP traded near 3,706.2 at 08:20 UTC, about 0.12% lower on the day and roughly 1.73% lower on the week.
2. The COLCAP was around 2,187.07, up about 0.70% on the day and 5.71% on the week, after a +1.95% jump on January 6 set an all-time high.
3. Colombia’s disinflation supports carry, but pricing still runs through DXY, oil, and U.S. data.

The official reference rate (TRM) for Friday, January 9, was set at 3,734.67. On Thursday, USD/COP closed at 3,734.77—around 14 pesos below the day’s TRM of 3,748.83—after about $1.354 billion traded across 1,535 transactions.

The session low was near 3,707 and the high around 3,760. Local data helped keep the peso bid. December inflation came in at 5.10% year on year, with prices up 0.27% on the month, reinforcing expectations of continued disinflation and attractive real rates.

Outside Colombia, the dollar was only marginally firmer, with DXY cited near 98.807 (up about 0.08%) as investors waited for payrolls.

Oil steadied near $60 Brent and $56 WTI after two down days, with oversupply talk lingering. U.S. stocks finished mixed, with tech softer and defense stronger.

Technically, USD/COP still reads as “sell rallies.” Daily RSI sits in the low 40s with MACD below zero. Support is 3,706 then 3,690; a break points toward about 3,670. Resistance is clustered at 3,726–3,742, then 3,762–3,779.

For the COLCAP, momentum remains strong, but RSI near 70 argues for consolidation risk rather than a clean reversal.

Positioning is the other wrinkle: the U.S.-listed iShares MSCI Colombia ETF (ICOL) has seen net outflows of about $7.08 million over a month and $17.2 million over a year.

That suggests the rally is being driven less by passive inflows and more by local rotation and sentiment—an angle echoed by commentary that treats Ecopetrol’s ADR as a political-risk thermometer, often moving more on risk appetite than on oil alone.

Winners: COP, COLCAP, disinflation progress, carry demand, oil stabilization.

Losers: USD/COP, U.S. tech leadership, ICOL flows, crude oversupply chatter, policy risk premium.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombian markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Chile’s IPSA closed the same session.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error