Record Copper Lifts Chile Markets, But A Strong Dollar Caps The Peso

Key Points

• USD/CLP held near 897 per $1 even as DXY hovered around 98.9.
• The IPSA stayed strong near 10,916 as copper hit records and inflation stayed subdued.
• The next swing factors are U.S. jobs data and a Supreme Court ruling on tariff powers.

A firm U.S. dollar met a stubborn Chile bid on Friday morning, extending a pattern our reporting has tracked since late 2025: the peso has repeatedly drawn support from record copper prices and a market-friendly political shift that mainstream wires often underplay. USD/CLP traded around 897, little changed from Thursday’s 896.52 close after a 893.17–898.61 range.

DXY held near 98.9, close to a one-month high, as traders positioned for the U.S. payrolls report. Macro expectations are doing the heavy lifting.

ING’s Chris Turner said markets may “tolerate” a weak payrolls number, and that the unemployment rate could be the bigger swing factor. Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda called the Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariff powers the “real wildcard.”

In FX, the charts suggest deceleration, not a turn. On the 4-hour USD/CLP view, RSI sits near 43 and the MACD histogram has edged slightly positive.

Daily signals are still bearish, with RSI near 39 and MACD negative. Resistance sits around 901–902 and 907–915, with support around 895–892. Weekly RSI near 31 flags oversold conditions that can fuel bounces.

Equities remain the bright spot. The S&P IPSA hovered around 10,916, close to the 11,000 area. Record copper is a key tailwind for earnings expectations.

RSI is around 74 on 4-hour, 75 on daily, and above 80 on weekly, with MACD still positive. Support zones sit near 10,785–10,692 and 10,630–10,598.

Foreign positioning looks mixed. The iShares MSCI Chile ETF (ECH) has about $1.10B in assets, shows roughly $68.9M of net outflows over one month but positive flows over three months, and recently traded around 379,000 shares in a session.

Top Winners: record copper; IPSA momentum; disinflation (about 3.5% y/y, with December negative m/m); a 4.5% policy rate keeping the easing story alive; stabilizing short-term FX momentum.

Top Losers: firmer DXY into payrolls; tariff-policy uncertainty; bearish daily USD/CLP structure below 907–915; one-month ECH outflows; pullback risk from stretched IPSA RSI.

Next up: U.S. jobs, copper follow-through, and Chile’s central bank meeting on Jan. 27.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Chilean markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Colombia’s COLCAP closed the same session.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Chile Copper Mine Stalls: Mantoverde Union Votes Down Capsto

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