Brazil’s Embraer publishes 20-year market outlook

Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer has published its market outlook for the next twenty years for the segment of commercial aircraft with less than 150 seats.

The report includes global and regional analysis and trends affecting demand for new jets and turboprops through 2041.

On Wednesday, July 20, company executives highlighted key elements of the report at a press conference during the Farnborough Airshow 2022 International Aerospace Exhibition.

DEMAND GROWTH AND RECOVERY

Global demand for air travel, measured in revenue per passenger kilometer (RPK), will grow at 3.2% per year (CAGR) over the next two decades, slightly lower than the 3.3% forecast last year.

The weaker growth reflects a short-term slowdown in the global economy, the impact of the pandemic, and the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. RPKs are expected to return to 2019 levels by 2024.

DIGITALIZATION AND REGIONALIZATION

Trends toward increased digitization (home office, video conferencing) and regionalization (production shifting – reshoring) that emerged at the beginning of the pandemic will continue, driving demand for lower-capacity aircraft.

FOCUS ON FLEET FLEXIBILITY AND TRANSITION TO GREEN TECHNOLOGIES

Matching capacity to demand is the most sustainable way to take advantage of growth opportunities in the post-pandemic world.

New green technologies tend to be focused on smaller aircraft, where the innovations are applied first before being introduced on larger platforms.

In this context, smaller aircraft are crucial for more sustainable air travel and connectivity.

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT INTO FREIGHTERS CONVERSION

Strong growth in e-commerce is opening new markets for smaller capacity freighter aircraft and driving demand for passenger-to-freighter conversions.

DELIVERIES OF NEW AIRCRAFT – IN FIGURES:

• New aircraft of up to 150 seats – 10,950 units
• 8,670 jets
• 2,280 turboprops
• Market value of all new aircraft: US$650 billion.

RPK ANNUAL GROWTH RATE – BY REGION:

4.3% – Asia-Pacific (including China)
4.0% – Latin America
3.8% – Africa
3.2% – Global average
3.2% – Middle East
2.3% – Europe
2.0% – North America

RPK SHARE BY THE END OF 2041:

42% – Asia-Pacific
38% – Europe & North America

JET DELIVERIES – 8,670 (% SHARE)

2,740 North America (31.6%)
2,230 Asia-Pacific (25.7%)
2,320 Europe and CIS (26.8%)
750 Latin America (8.7%)
330 Middle East (3.8%)
300 Africa (3.5%)

TURBOPROP DELIVERIES – 2,280 (% SHARE)

960 Asia-Pacific (42.1%)
500 Europe and CIS (21.9%)
400 North America (17.5%)
200 Africa (8.8%)
180 Latin America (7.9%)
40 Middle East (1.8%)

With information from Latina Press

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