Brazilian Ilan Goldfajn is the favorite in the IDB election, according to the government

Members of the government of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) evaluate that Ilan Goldfajn has the best chance of being chosen president of the IDB (Inter-American Development Bank).

The election will take place on Nov. 20. If he wins, he will be the first Brazilian in the post.

The deadline for countries to submit nominations closed at midnight on Friday (Nov. 11, 2022).

Here are the candidates:

Cecilia Todesca Bocco (Argentina);
Gerardo Johnson (Trinidad and Tobago);
Gerardo Esquivel Hernández (Mexico);
Ilan Goldfajn (Brazil);
Nicolas Eyzaguirre Guzmán (Chile).

The candidates will be tested on Sunday (Nov. 13) in a virtual closed meeting of the bank’s board of governors.

Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) will participate. He is the governor representing Brazil.

PROPORTIONAL VOTING

The IDB members have voting power proportional to the total shares of each.

The United States has the largest share (30%). Argentina and Brazil come next (11.4% each). Next are Mexico (7.3%), Japan (5%) and Canada (4%).

The winner must have the majority of votes according to the proportional weight of the shareholders.

It must also have an absolute majority of votes from the 28 American countries that make up the IDB – in this case, with one vote for each country.

The Brazilian government’s evaluation is that the USA tends to support Goldfajn.

It is the indication they have from conversations between members of the first echelon of the US and Brazilian governments on the subject.

But the decision still depends on a careful assessment by the White House.

Goldfajn’s technical profile pleases some members of the US government.

He has been the director of the Western Hemisphere Department of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) since January 2022.

It was not a choice of the Brazilian government.

Goldfajn was president of the BC (Central Bank) in the government of Michel Temer (MDB), from 2016 to 2018.

Then he was an economist at Credit Suisse, a bank that had taken a critical stance toward the Bolsonaro government.

A comparison with the other four candidates also counts in Gondfajn’s favor.

None has such a dense background in finance, combining the private sector, the public sector, and multilateral institutions.

MANTEGA’S CRITICISM

Guido Mantega, former Finance Minister in Dilma Rousseff’s (PT) government, criticized Friday, Nov. 11, the presentation of Goldfajn’s candidacy for the IDB.

He called for the election to be postponed.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT, left) could nominate a new name starting in January 2023, when he will have taken office as president of the Republic.

The IDB said this would not be possible.

Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) praised Goldfajn’s nomination. “I consider someone capable, experienced, and who has rendered good services to the country,” he said.

Henrique Meirelles, who was Finance Minister in Temer’s government, criticized Mantega’s attempt to bar Goldfajn’s name.

Members of the Brazilian government and financial market analysts assess that Mantega’s criticism was inappropriate.

They say it shows ignorance of the process because it would be almost impossible to decide to postpone, especially on the last day for submitting nominations.

They also assess that the statements could harm Goldfajn’s candidacy because representatives from countries willing to vote for him would change their minds.

This could result in moral damage to Lula da Silva’s government if Goldfajn is not elected.

A probable criticism would be that he has squandered the possibility of favoring a Brazilian’s choice for a multilateral institution’s presidency.

In the evaluation of these analysts, this would be contradictory with the PT’s idea that Lula will enhance Brazil’s international reputation.

TRUMP’S APPOINTEE FIRED

The president of the IDB is elected to office for a 5-year term. The election would not be until 2025 by the normal calendar.

But in Sept. 2022, the then-president of the bank, American Mauricio Claver-Carone, was fired for violating the institution’s code of ethics.

He had a relationship with a female employee and made decisions that benefited her.

Claver-Carone was elected in September 2020. The then US president, Donald Trump, insisted on the name.

The previous presidents were from countries that could borrow from the bank, which includes Latin America and the Caribbean.

With information from Poder360