Brazil Poll: Lula Leads First Round but Run-Off With Flávio Bolsonaro Is Deadlocked
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026
Key Facts
—What happened: A new Real Time Big Data poll puts Lula at 38 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 30 percent for the first round on 4 October.
—The run-off: In a head-to-head, the two frontrunners are deadlocked at 44 percent each.
—The newcomer: Writer Augusto Cury jumped from 1 to 11 percent and now holds third place.
—The mood: 51 percent disapprove of the government against 45 percent who approve, and both frontrunners carry a 50 percent rejection rate.
—The market read: Asset manager Kinea told clients the race is tighter than the poll aggregator suggests.
—The method: Real Time Big Data interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone between 27 and 31 August, with a two-point margin of error.
Brazil’s presidential race enters September with a split picture: Lula keeps a clear first-round lead, but a Brazil poll released on Tuesday shows the likely run-off against Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a dead heat.
The first-round numbers
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the Real Time Big Data survey with 38 percent of voting intentions. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 30 percent.
Both men slipped from the institute’s previous round on 21 July, when Lula had 40 percent and Bolsonaro 33 percent. The eight-point gap, however, remains well outside the two-point margin of error.
The movement happened below them. Augusto Cury, a bestselling self-help writer running for the small Avante party, surged to 11 percent from just 1 percent in July.
The jump mirrors the BTG/Nexus and AtlasIntel/Bloomberg surveys released on Monday, which also showed Cury climbing into double digits or close to them. Renan Santos of Missão fell from 9 to 7 percent, Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD dropped from 7 to 4 percent, and Romeu Zema of Novo held at 2 percent.
In a second scenario including Pablo Marçal — refiliated to the PRTB by a court but still ineligible and barred from campaigning — Lula holds 38 percent, Bolsonaro 29, Cury 10 and Marçal 3 percent.
A run-off locked at 44 to 44
The headline number sits in the second-round simulation. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro appear numerically tied with 44 percent of voting intentions each.
In July the president led that scenario 45 to 42 percent. Blank and null ballots rose from 8 to 9 percent, and 3 percent of voters did not answer.
Other pairings stay competitive. Caiado edges Lula 45 to 43 percent inside the margin of error. Lula beats Zema 43 to 40, Renan Santos 44 to 37 and Marçal 44 to 40.
The picture has tightened for weeks. Our report on the Vox Brasil poll of 29 August recorded Lula at 37.1 percent and Bolsonaro at 34.8 percent in the first round, with Bolsonaro numerically ahead 45.1 to 44.5 in the run-off. The BTG/Nexus round published on Monday still had Lula at 39 and Bolsonaro at 33, with a 46-to-45 run-off.
Rejection and a government under water
Both frontrunners now carry identical rejection rates: 50 percent of voters say they would not vote for Lula, and 50 percent say the same about Flávio Bolsonaro. Marçal follows at 46, Caiado and Renan Santos at 39 each, and Zema at 36.
Cury is the outlier. Only 28 percent reject him — the lowest of any tested name — which helps explain his rise as voters look beyond the polarized pair.
The government numbers are equally uncomfortable for the Planalto. 51 percent disapprove of Lula’s administration against 45 percent who approve. Asked to grade it, 39 percent call the government bad or terrible, 33 percent say regular and 27 percent rate it good or great.
The telephone survey interviewed 2,000 voters between Thursday and Monday. It is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under protocol BR-03490/2026 and cost R$30,000 (about US$5,800, at roughly 5.19 reais to the dollar on 1 September), paid with the institute’s own funds.
Why Kinea tells clients the race is closer than it looks
Kinea Investimentos, one of Brazil’s largest asset managers, argued in a letter to clients on Tuesday that the election will be more competitive than the poll aggregator the market watches every day implies.
The house’s central point is abstention. Polls capture stated preference, Kinea wrote, but not who actually shows up — and abstention is not neutral. It concentrates among lower-income voters and in regions that form Lula’s most solid base, a silent bias that only appears at the ballot box.
Even so, Kinea still sees Lula as a slight favorite, citing the tendency for government approval to improve as the vote approaches. Its warning flag for the opposition is São Paulo, where Flávio Bolsonaro would need a wider lead to offset the rest of the country.
The manager, which titled the letter “The Hour of the Nightmare” in a reference to fiscal risk, keeps reduced exposure to Brazilian assets, prefers utilities and Minha Casa Minha Vida-linked companies, and expects the central bank to pause its rate-cutting cycle until the post-election budget becomes clear.
What comes next
The first round takes place on Sunday 4 October. A candidate wins outright only with more than half of the valid votes; otherwise the top two meet in a run-off four weeks later.
Free campaign advertising began on radio and television last Friday, and the debate calendar now compresses the race. Cury’s surge makes him the wild card: if his support proves real, he competes with Bolsonaro for the second run-off slot rather than with Lula for the lead.
For now, the numbers describe a country split down the middle — a president ahead in October’s first vote, and nobody ahead at all in the one that would decide the election.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the new Real Time Big Data poll show?
Lula leads the first round with 38 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 30 percent, with writer Augusto Cury third at 11 percent. In a run-off, Lula and Bolsonaro are tied at 44 percent each.
How is the Lula government rated in the poll?
51 percent disapprove of the government and 45 percent approve. 39 percent rate it bad or terrible, 33 percent regular and 27 percent good or great.
What is the rejection rate of the candidates?
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are both rejected by 50 percent of voters, the highest rates tested. Augusto Cury has the lowest rejection at 28 percent.
Why does Kinea say the election is tighter than polls suggest?
The asset manager argues that abstention is concentrated among lower-income voters who form Lula’s base, so stated preferences in polls may overstate his strength on election day.
When is Brazil’s presidential election?
The first round is on Sunday 4 October 2026. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, the top two meet in a run-off four weeks later.
Connected Coverage
The previous tightening is in Brazil Poll: Flávio Bolsonaro Closes on Lula and Edges Ahead in Run-Off, and the state-by-state picture is in Quaest State Polls Map Brazil’s Divide. Follow the race on our Brazil hub.
Sources: Real Time Big Data poll BR-03490/2026 of 1 September 2026; Poder360; Money Times; Exame; Gazeta do Povo; InfoMoney (Kinea letter); BTG/Nexus round of 31 August 2026.
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