Lula Campaign Accuses Meta of Bias 15 Days Before Vote
ELECTIONS · BRAZIL
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds its presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —Why it matters A sitting president is accusing a US technology giant of tilting a national election, adding a new front to Brazil’s long fight with American platforms.
- —Why now Lula trails in the first runoff polls, and the campaign says Instagram blocked his paid posts from Friday 9 October to Saturday morning.
- —What happened On Saturday 10 October the campaign said it will take Meta to the electoral court and the data protection authority, 15 days before the vote.
- —The numbers A Workers’ Party report says Flávio’s page drew 2.96 times Lula’s engagement on average, despite 17.2% fewer followers.
- —What it means for you Expect a legal fight over platform rules during the final stretch, and more scrutiny of US big tech in Brazil whoever wins.
- —Still open Meta calls the claims “simply false”; no court filing or TSE ruling had been made public by Saturday afternoon.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 88% chance of winning the presidency (10 October, 2:08 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 88% and Kalshi at 87% (Lula: 12% and 13%), as of 10 October, 2:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
The re-election campaign of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Saturday accused Meta, the US owner of Facebook and Instagram, of interfering in the presidential runoff in favour of his conservative rival, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The campaign said it will take its Meta interference claim to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court and the national data protection authority. For US readers, it pits a Silicon Valley company against the president of the Western Hemisphere’s second-largest democracy, 15 days before the 25 October vote.
The accusation came in a written statement released on Saturday 10 October and reported by G1, Folha de S.Paulo and CNN Brasil. Meta rejected it the same day. “The allegations are simply false and are not supported by the facts,” the company said in a statement to TV Globo and CNN Brasil, adding that many of the technical problems cited did not affect only Brazil or specific accounts. “We comply with electoral rules and are committed to equal use of our platforms by all.”
What the Meta Interference Claim Says
The most recent episode, according to the statement, began on Friday 9 October. “Since the start of the day yesterday, 9 October, until this morning, President Lula’s profile was prevented by Meta from boosting feed content on Instagram,” the campaign said, as quoted by Folha.
Boosting is the paid promotion of a post to a wider audience. The campaign called it part of “the digital strategy of any political campaign” and said it could not use the tool for the whole period.
It listed earlier problems. During the first-round campaign, it said, Lula’s advertising account was taken offline. On another occasion, one post on his official account showed an interruption in its recorded view count, which the campaign says cut its reach.
The campaign also traced the issue back to December 2025, CNN Brasil reported. It said Lula’s page and those of other left-wing figures were then “suddenly removed” from Instagram’s search tool while the lower house debated reduced sentences for Jair Bolsonaro and others convicted over the coup attempt.
In each case, the campaign said, Meta blamed “technical problems”. “The succession of technical problems not explained by the company raises strong suspicion that Meta’s action amounts to an attempt to interfere in the Brazilian electoral process, to the benefit of Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy,” the statement said.
The statement cited a report by the communications office of the Workers’ Party (PT), Lula’s left-wing party. It found that Flávio’s page drew on average 2.96 times more engagement than Lula’s, despite having 17.2% fewer followers. The campaign argues the algorithm favours the right.
Senator Camilo Santana, a former minister and one of the campaign’s coordinators, said the restrictions hurt Lula in a close race. “This causes an imbalance in such a tight election,” he said, according to Folha. “It is an intervention that we want to denounce.”
Who Is Involved
Lula, 80, is Brazil’s president and the Workers’ Party candidate for a fourth term. He finished second in the first round on Sunday 4 October with 45.16% of valid votes.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro from the conservative Liberal Party (PL) and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He led the first round with 47.03%.
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) runs Brazilian elections and rules on campaign complaints, including those against platforms. The National Data Protection Authority (ANPD) enforces Brazil’s personal data law.
Meta, based in Menlo Park, California, owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. Its public ad library showed 11 active boosted ads on Lula’s Instagram and Facebook profiles late on Saturday morning, Folha reported.
The Meta interference claim lands in a tense contest. The first Datafolha runoff poll, taken on 6 and 7 October among 2,520 voters, gave Flávio 52% of valid votes and Lula 48%, with a two-point margin of error. This week the TSE also ordered two US firms to shut a pro-Flávio crypto site, as covered in Brazil Orders 2 US Firms to Shut Pro-Flávio Crypto Site.
What It Means for You
For investors, the dispute adds noise but does not change the calendar. The vote is still on 25 October, and Brazil’s electronic count usually produces a result within hours.
For US technology companies, it is another sign that Brazil regulates platforms more actively than the United States does. Brazilian courts have repeatedly ordered content removed during elections, and this complaint could add pressure on Meta.
For Washington, the case touches a sore point. The Trump administration has criticised Brazil’s treatment of US platforms, and a Lula complaint against Meta may widen that rift if he wins. Lula’s campaign has gone to the electoral court over a US issue before, in Lula Campaign Asks Court to Probe US Consular Pause.
The stabiliser is the electoral court itself. The TSE has dealt quickly with platform complaints in past campaigns, so any ruling may arrive well before polling day.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the campaign has already filed its Meta interference complaint with the TSE or the ANPD, or what it will ask for. No case number had been made public by Saturday afternoon.
Meta has not explained the specific episodes the campaign lists. The engagement figures come from a party report and have not been independently confirmed. Higher engagement for one candidate can also reflect content, timing and audience, not only platform rules.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign had not responded publicly to the accusation by Saturday afternoon, Brasília time.
What Prediction Markets Say
Bettors see Flávio as the clear favourite. On Polymarket, his chance of winning the presidency stood at 88% and Lula’s at 11.5% on 10 October at 2:08 p.m. ET. The main Brazil election market there has traded about US$179.8 million in bets.
A separate Polymarket margin market rates a Flávio win by four to eight points as most likely, at 48.5%, with about US$412,000 traded. On Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC, Flávio stood at 87% and Lula at 13%, with more than 5 million contracts traded.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 88.2% · Lula 11.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 13%
As of 10 October, 2:20 pm ET (19:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Meta interference claim?
Lula’s campaign says Meta limited the reach of Lula’s Facebook and Instagram accounts, took his ad account offline in the first round and blocked paid boosts on Instagram from 9 to 10 October, favouring Flávio Bolsonaro.
Has Meta responded to the accusation?
Yes. Meta told TV Globo and CNN Brasil that the allegations are simply false, that many of the technical problems cited were not limited to Brazil or specific accounts, and that it complies with Brazil’s electoral rules.
Could this change the 25 October runoff?
The vote date is fixed. The electoral court could order changes to how platforms treat campaigns, but no ruling or filing had been made public on Saturday.
Sources: G1 · Folha de S.Paulo · CNN Brasil · Folha de S.Paulo (Datafolha)
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error