Brazil’s Flávio Ad Airs Silent 13 Days Before Runoff
BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —What happened Flávio Bolsonaro’s free TV campaign ad aired without sound on Monday.
- —When The 1 p.m. slot on Monday, 12 October, a national holiday.
- —The rival Lula’s slot right after it had sound, Metrópoles reported.
- —The response Flávio says it was no coincidence; the cause is still unknown.
- —The vote Flávio faces Lula in the runoff on Sunday, 25 October.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 87% to win the runoff (12 October, 3:35 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 87% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 13% and 13%), as of 12 October, 4:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Brazil’s conservative presidential frontrunner says his free television slot went out on mute on Monday. The electoral court has not yet said publicly what went wrong.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s free TV campaign ad aired without sound on Monday, 12 October, Folha, Metrópoles and g1 reported. Flávio, an ally of US President Donald Trump, faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the runoff on Sunday, 25 October.
The slot went out at about 1 p.m. Brasília time on a national holiday, g1 and Metrópoles reported. Flávio said in a video on social media that he did not believe it was a coincidence.
What Happened on Monday
The program was part of the free electoral airtime that Brazil’s open-air TV stations must carry during the campaign. Monday was the feast day of Our Lady of Aparecida, Brazil’s patron saint, as g1 and Metrópoles noted.
The picture went out but the audio was missing, Metrópoles reported, and g1 also said it aired without audio. Flávio called it “mute” in a video quoted by both Folha and Metrópoles.
Lula’s program, which followed in the same block, played with normal sound, Metrópoles reported. Flávio made the same point in his video, which both Folha and Metrópoles quoted.
What Flávio Said
“My electoral program was broadcast without sound,” Flávio said in the video, as quoted by Folha and Metrópoles. “Lula’s had sound, everything OK, but mine was broadcast without sound,” he added.
The senator asked his followers whether they believed in coincidence and said there was no such thing, according to both outlets. Neither outlet reported any evidence that the failure was deliberate.
His campaign said it was still trying to find out what had happened, according to g1 and Metrópoles. None of the three outlets reported a formal complaint to the electoral court.
Who Sends the Signal
Folha, citing the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), said a broadcasters’ media pool at the court retransmits campaign ads. Metrópoles, citing the electoral rules, said instead that EBC, the federal public broadcaster, distributes the video signal that goes on air.
Both outlets said the origin of the failure was still unknown. Folha said the TSE and the pool had not answered its questions, and Metrópoles said EBC had not commented.
What It Means for You
For US investors, the runoff decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, with effects on the real and New York-listed Petrobras shares. Disputes over fair access to airtime can feed challenges to the result, which markets and Washington watch closely.
Flávio is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a coup sentence under house arrest. Lula, of the Workers’ Party (PT), is seeking re-election.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket’s US$180 million market, Flávio Bolsonaro stood at 87% and Lula at 12.5% (12 October, 3:35 p.m. ET). Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, showed Flávio at 88% and Lula at 13% (11:07 a.m. ET).
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.1% · Lula 12.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 13%
As of 12 October, 4:20 pm ET (21:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The cause of the failure is not known, and no official explanation had been published by Monday evening. Metrópoles reported that the TSE had opened an inquiry, but no second outlet or court statement confirms it.
It is not clear how many stations carried the silent version, or whether radio slots were affected. Folha and Metrópoles also differ on who distributes the signal, pointing to the TSE pool and to EBC respectively.
What Comes Next
An explanation from the TSE, the pool or EBC should show where the failure began. The campaign could also ask the court to air the program again, but no such request had been reported by Monday evening.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened to Flávio Bolsonaro’s TV ad?
His free campaign program aired without sound at about 1 p.m. on Monday, 12 October, Folha, Metrópoles and g1 reported. Lula’s program, which followed, played normally, according to Metrópoles.
Who is responsible for broadcasting the ads?
Folha reported that, according to the TSE, a media pool set up by broadcasters at the court’s headquarters retransmits the ads. Metrópoles reported that EBC, the public broadcaster, distributed the video signal.
What did Flávio Bolsonaro say?
He said in a video that he did not believe it was a coincidence. He also said Lula’s program had aired with sound while his own was mute.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the presidential candidate of the conservative Liberal Party (PL). He is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and faces Lula in the 25 October runoff.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, silent ad and TSE media pool; Metrópoles, EBC and campaign response; g1, timing and campaign response (all accessed 12 October 2026).
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief