Flávio Bolsonaro Denies Bank Link 14 Days Before Runoff
POLITICS · BRAZIL
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, chooses its next president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between Lula and the conservative Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —Why it matters The frontrunner is now tied, through Federal Police evidence, to a lawyer under investigation in a pension fraud and money-laundering case. Both men deny any shared account.
- —Why now UOL first reported the e-mails. Folha de S.Paulo and CNN Brasil confirmed them on Saturday 10 October, 15 days before the vote.
- —What happened Seized e-mails show an employee of lawyer Willer Tomaz asking Santander in May 2025 to unlink Flávio from an account tied to Tomaz’s company.
- —What it means for you For US investors in Brazilian stocks and ADRs, the runoff is the main political risk. So far the story has not shifted the betting odds much.
- —Still open Whether Flávio was ever an account holder, what the account was used for, and whether police will formally investigate him.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 88% chance of winning; Kalshi has him at 88 cents (11 October, 1:40 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 88% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 12% and 13%), as of 11 October, 2:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
E-mails obtained by Brazil’s Federal Police indicate that Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative frontrunner for president, shared a Santander bank account with a lawyer suspected of laundering money from a pension fraud. The Flávio Bolsonaro bank account story broke on Saturday 10 October, 15 days before the runoff against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. It matters abroad because markets, and the bets US traders follow, already treat Flávio as the likely next leader of Latin America’s largest economy.
Both men deny it. Flávio calls the report fake news timed for the election. The lawyer, Willer Tomaz, says the two are friends with no financial ties. Nothing in the reporting so far says Flávio is formally under investigation.
What the Emails Show
The news site UOL published the e-mails first. Folha de S.Paulo said it confirmed them, and CNN Brasil said police sources confirmed the find to its reporters.
According to Folha, one exchange was between an employee of Tomaz and Santander. It concerned an account linked to Alcazar Holdings, a company based on the Portuguese island of Madeira in which Tomaz is a partner.
In May 2025, the employee asked the bank to remove Flávio Bolsonaro from that account. CNN Brasil reported the same detail: a request for the senator to be “disassociated” from an account belonging to a company of the lawyer.
CNN Brasil said the e-mails were found during a police search and seizure. It added that the Federal Police are now looking into whether the two shared an account, within the existing inquiry into pension fraud.
The underlying records have not been published. It is not clear whether Flávio was a full account holder, an authorised user, or only listed on paper.
Who Is Willer Tomaz
Tomaz is a Brasília lawyer and businessman with friends across the political spectrum, Folha reports. That includes Flávio and members of Lula’s governing coalition.
In August he was one of the targets of a phase of Operation Sem Desconto (“No Deduction”), Folha says, together with relatives of Senator Weverton Rocha. Rocha represents Maranhão for the PDT, a centre-left party in Lula’s camp.
The operation investigates unauthorised deductions taken from the pensions of retirees paid by the INSS, Brazil’s National Social Security Institute. On Tuesday 4 August the police said they were serving 18 search warrants, issued by the Supreme Federal Court, in the Federal District and Maranhão. That phase targeted suspected money laundering through third-party accounts, companies and cash.
CNN Brasil adds that Tomaz co-owns an aircraft on which Flávio flew in January 2025. The plane was managed by a company linked to Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master, a bank at the centre of another large police case.
Tomaz was arrested in 2017 in Operation Patmos, which grew out of the plea deal of the meatpacker JBS. Prosecutors accused him of helping to leak confidential information. A court rejected the charges.
What Both Sides Say
Flávio’s press office said he “never held an account in which Mr Willer Tomaz or any of his companies was the master user.” It called every claim to the contrary false.
It said the reports appeared “in the middle of the election period” to spread fake news. It warned that spreading fake news is an electoral crime and that those responsible would face criminal action.
Tomaz’s office denied sharing any account with the senator. “Between the two there is only friendship, with no commercial or financial relationship,” it said. His lawyers said they had filed a criminal complaint over the publication.
Tomaz’s office also said the Federal Police had opened an inquiry into the leak of the sealed material. That claim comes from his side and has not been confirmed by the police.
What It Means for You
For US investors, Brazil’s runoff is the main political event of the quarter. Brazilian shares and ADRs trade in New York, and many funds are positioned for a change of government.
A scandal that stuck could narrow Flávio’s lead and add volatility in the last two weeks. So far there is little sign of that: the betting odds barely moved after the report.
The stabiliser is that the evidence on the Flávio Bolsonaro bank account is still thin. There is no charge, no formal suspect status and no public bank record. Voters, and markets, will judge the denials against whatever the police do next.
Brazilian retirees are the other audience. The INSS fraud hit pensioners directly, which gives any link to it more political weight than a typical corruption story.
What Is Not Known
It is not known what role, if any, he had on the Flávio Bolsonaro bank account named in the e-mails, when it was opened, or what money passed through it. The e-mails, as reported, show only a request to remove his name.
The Federal Police have made no public statement on the e-mails. It is not known whether they will ask the Supreme Court for permission to investigate a sitting senator.
Santander has not commented in the reporting reviewed. Alcazar Holdings’ activities and accounts have not been disclosed.
Related: Brazil Police Probe Loan for Flávio Bolsonaro Mansion · Brazil Votes 25 October, Polls Close 4 p.m. Eastern
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket bets give Flávio Bolsonaro an 88% chance of winning the presidency and Lula 11.5% (11 October, 1:40 a.m. ET). More than US$180 million has been traded on the overall election market there.
The story cost him about one point. His price stood at 89% at midnight UTC on Saturday, before the e-mails became widely known, and 88% a day later. Before first-round results on 4 October it was about 64%.
On Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC, Flávio trades at 88 cents and Lula at 13 cents. About 2.6 million contracts have changed hands on Flávio alone.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.9% · Lula 11.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 13%
As of 11 October, 2:20 am ET (07:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Flávio Bolsonaro under investigation in the INSS case?
Not formally, as far as is publicly known. CNN Brasil reports the Federal Police are looking into whether he shared an account with Willer Tomaz, but no charge or suspect status has been announced.
What is Operation Sem Desconto?
A Federal Police investigation into unauthorised deductions taken from the pensions of Brazilian retirees paid by the INSS, the national social security institute. Later phases target suspected money laundering of the proceeds.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
On Sunday 25 October 2026, between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party and Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 10 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 10 October 2026; Federal Police release, 4 August 2026; Polymarket and Kalshi market data, 11 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error