Bird flu has gripped Argentina and is circling Brazil: when it arrives, how bad will it be?

Until two weeks ago, the records of the arrival of the H5N1 avian influenza to the South American continent came from beyond the Andes Mountains and the Amazon rainforest.

But these natural barriers against the spread of the virus by migratory birds no longer count.

The H5N1 has landed in much closer neighbors than Chile, Ecuador, and Peru.

On the last 15th, Argentina and Uruguay declared a national health emergency after confirmation of cases of the disease in wild birds and domestic livestock.

Since then, the situation has worsened in Argentina, which already counts 25 outbreaks, and this week confirmed the presence of the virus in a commercial farm in the municipality of Mainque, in the province of Río Negro.

So far, there is no scientific proof that the disease is contagious among humans, despite the high lethality in cases of close and unprotected contact with infected birds.

Immediately, Argentina temporarily lost its status as a disease-free area and voluntarily suspended exports of poultry products.

The fight, now, is to quickly extirpate the outbreak – with the sacrifice of all birds from the flock and from 10 km away. In parallel, a race is on to negotiate the reopening of exports and regain the status of an accessible area.

Although the protocols for dealing with the disease are the same, the economic impact of avian influenza in Argentina does not compare to the potential damage to Brazil.

While the Argentines export 190,000 tonnes of chicken annually, Brazil ships twice as much per month. It is the largest global exporter, with 33% of all trade between countries, reaching revenues of US$9.76 billion.

Adding the exports of eggs, the figures rise to US$13 billion. There are 4 million direct and indirect jobs.

BRAZIL MAY BE ONE OF THE LAST COUNTRIES AFFECTED BY THE VIRUS

A relative advantage of Brazil in relation to the disease is that it first reached its main competitors in the Northern hemisphere.

The second-largest global exporter, the US managed to control the outbreaks and “coexist” with the virus without losing international clients.

That is what Brazil also hopes to do.

“We have been working for more than three years in the markets that are our clients. Out of 150 countries, we may have problems in ten or fifteen if there is an outbreak of the disease in a commercial farm.”

“But most, like China and the European countries, already impose restrictions only within a radius of 10 kilometers from an outbreak.”

“For the rest, when it occurs in wild birds or backyard poultry, it is not for trade.”

“A proof of this is that Japan continues to import from Europe and the United States, which have registered several disease outbreaks,” says Ricardo Santin, president of the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA).

Although the effects can be mitigated by strict sanitary measures and new trade arrangements, in the very short term, some see the potential for damage similar to that of an Operation Weak Meat or a truck driver’s strike.

“If we don’t export for three days, it’s already chaos. We have already seen this in Operation Weak Meat. We don’t have a large storage capacity in our slaughterhouses.”

“And we can’t leave them in cold storage waiting for exports to resume”, says a source in the production chain in Paraná, which accounts for 35% of national production.

Unlike beef cattle, which can wait in the pasture, keeping chickens in poultry houses indefinitely is impossible. The flock turnover is almost monthly.

LACK OF STORAGE CREATES A SHORT-TERM PROBLEM

“There is no point in saying that you are going to store the product because there is nowhere to store it.”

“In the region where the outbreak occurs, you must stop housing immediately, take the eggs out of the machines, and try to sell them on the domestic market.”

“Only the price will be free. And after 38 to 40 days, there won’t be any left”, says a businessman in the industry, off the record.

On the other hand, says the aviculturist, a contingency plan should have a fast adhesion from international clients “because they are going to run out of options, they will have nowhere to get the product”.

In Santin’s evaluation of ABPA, the world has already learned to live with the avian flu.

“The problem is that many birds die, and there is no food. There is neither meat nor eggs. But Brazil is prepared to eradicate an outbreak immediately,” he assures.

According to the rules of the World Organization for Animal Health (OMSA), theoretically, a country that has never had avian influenza can recover the status of a free area in 28 days if it adopts all the measures to eliminate the virus – the sacrifice of the batch of infected birds, disinfection of the establishment and preventive sacrifice of farms in a close radius. T

rade negotiations, however, take place on a bilateral basis.

EGGS AND MEAT CAN BE SAFELY CONSUMED

Whether concerning the new virus or an old threat, such as salmonella, the biosecurity control mechanisms in the Brazilian poultry chain ensure a very low risk of contaminated food reaching consumers’ tables.

Even if this occurs, correctly handling and cooking eggs and meat eliminates viruses and bacteria.

However, the fact that the virus is spreading has worried the scientific community.

In January, the warning lights went on after the sanitary sacrifice of 50,000 mink (a related species of otters and ferrets) on a farm in Spain.

It is feared that the animals did not become infected by feeding on contaminated birds but that the virus could pass from one mammal to another.

A mutation like this could be one of the triggers to turn H5N1 into a new global pandemic.

STUDIES SEEK TO UNDERSTAND H5N1 AMONG MAMMALS

“Some mammals, such as mink, can act as incubators for different influenza viruses, leading to the emergence of new strains and subtypes with the potential to be more harmful to animals and humans.”

“The outbreak on a mink farm causes concern because it infected large numbers of mammals kept near each other, which exacerbates this risk,” says a statement from the World Organization for Animal Health (WAHO).

Several studies are underway to assess the virulence and transmissibility of these viruses, including between mammals.

Last week, Cambodian health authorities confirmed two cases of human infection with H5N1, which had not happened in the country since 2014.

An 11-year-old girl received medical treatment but did not resist. Her father, also infected, was asymptomatic.

There is, however, no evidence that the H5N1 strain is transmitted between humans, despite the high lethality.

873 people have been infected since 2003, totaling 458 deaths from the infection in 21 countries.

Given the rapid spread among birds, if the virus were transmissible from one person to another, there would be many more deaths.

Most likely, the contagions occurred by handling sick birds or contact with contaminated environments.

“Epidemiological and virological evidence suggests that the virus has not acquired the ability for sustained transmission between humans, which makes the probability of person-to-person contagion low.”

“As the virus continues to be detected in poultry farms, we should expect more cases of infected humans,” says a February 26 World Health Organization report.

CHICKEN CHAIN INTENSIFIED TESTING AND SAFETY

The Ministry of Agriculture coordinated with the state health defenses a contingency plan to react to the eventual arrival of the virus in Brazil.

The first measure will be to block the area of the focus and then take a series of sanitation actions within a radius of 10 kilometers from the detection.

Currently, the order is to intensify active prevention by the inspection agencies and passive prevention, which involves the communication of the disease by any citizen who notices symptoms in commercial, domestic, or wild birds.

The typical symptoms are staggering gait, torticollis, tremors, breathing difficulties, and diarrhea.

Last year, with the rapid increase in cases in the northern hemisphere, the federal laboratories for agricultural defense in São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul alone processed 34,205 analyses of samples from wild birds and subsistence birds raised near migratory bird sites.

In Paraná, the leading chicken producer, approximately 15,000 analyses were made.

Suspected deaths of birds have mandatory notification and are attended to by the animal health defense within a maximum of 12 hours.

A breeder can only get authorization to house chicks if he meets biosecurity items such as the enclosure of the houses with anti-bird screens, the adoption of a disinfection system for vehicles and people, and the restriction of visits.

“Now it is necessary that the producers enforce these structural issues. There is no point in the producer having an aviary with an adequate screen, water quality, and vehicle disinfection if he keeps open houses, for example, to cool the aviaries and save on ventilators and misting.”

“These are procedures that the producer has to do every day”, recommends Rafael Gonçalves Dias, manager of Animal Health of the Secretary of Agriculture (Seab-PR).

MIGRATORY BIRDS ARE LEAVING, WHICH CAN HELP

An encouragement that can give survival to the Brazilian status of “H5N1-free” is that migratory birds, potential virus hosts, fly back to the Northern hemisphere.

They usually stay here from November to April.

This guarantees nothing since the virus has already landed on the continent, killing even geese and teals – which are generally more resistant to infection.

“In other countries, in winter, it greatly reduces outbreaks. There is some hope, but it is unknown. It could be that an autochthonous infection occurs because here most of the birds don’t migrate since they have food all year round”, observes Luizinho Caron, a researcher from Embrapa Aves, in Concórdia (SC), specialized in microbiology, subarea of virology.

Although the arrival of the virus is increasingly a question of “when” and not “if”, the most severe effects on the industrial poultry industry, as occurred in the United States and Europe, should not be repeated here, evaluates chicken market analyst at Cepea-Esalq/USP, Juliana Ferraz.

“We are the biggest player in the international chicken market. We reached this level due to the sanitary issue; we have an excellent sanitary status. It can generate an occasional image crisis. But the world depends on Brazilian protein and has nowhere to run. A third of what the world consumes in chicken meat comes from Brazil. That’s a lot of meat,” says the analyst.

With information from Gazeta do Povo