Peru El Niño Emergency: Cabinet Weighs Decree for 22 Regions as Fiscal Savings Hit 25-Year Low
PERU · EL NIÑO
Key Facts
—What is on the table: A draft supreme decree would declare a state of emergency in districts of 22 of Peru’s 25 regions, plus the constitutional province of Callao, over imminent rain danger from El Niño 2026–2027.
—When: The Council of Ministers debated the measure in an extraordinary, non-in-person session on 31 August 2026. It had not been published in the official gazette at the time of writing.
—An update, not a first step: The move follows four supreme decrees of 23 August — three for 60 days each, plus a 120-day fishing emergency.
—Fiscal warning: Fiscal Council president Alonso Segura says El Niño “finds us with savings at their lowest point in almost 25 years.”
—Private money: Farming guilds grouped in AGAP committed S/108 million (about US$32 million) for prevention works and donations.
—The forecast: The ENFEN commission keeps Peru on Coastal El Niño Alert and sees a roughly 62 percent probability of an extraordinary-magnitude event between September 2026 and January 2027.
Peru’s cabinet is weighing an El Niño emergency decree covering districts in 22 regions plus Callao, as the Fiscal Council warns that public savings stand at their lowest level in about 25 years and farming guilds pledge S/108 million (about US$32 million) of their own money for prevention.
The El Niño Emergency Decree on the Table
Peru’s Council of Ministers held an extraordinary session on 31 August 2026 to debate a draft supreme decree declaring a state of emergency over the imminent danger of heavy rains linked to the 2026–2027 El Niño. The remote session was convened by the Presidency of the Council of Ministers, according to Canal N.
The draft covers districts in 22 of Peru’s 25 regions, plus the constitutional province of Callao. The regions named are Amazonas, Áncash, Apurímac, Arequipa, Ayacucho, Cajamarca, Huancavelica, Huánuco, Ica, Junín, La Libertad, Lambayeque, Lima, Loreto, Madre de Dios, Moquegua, Pasco, Piura, San Martín, Tacna, Tumbes and Ucayali.
A state of emergency lets the state restrict certain rights, deploy the armed forces in support of the police and speed up spending procedures. The decree had not been published in the official gazette El Peruano at the time of writing.
It would follow an urgency decree of 18 August that authorized immediate intervention works against imminent rain danger. That measure already cited the ENFEN commission’s official bulletin No. 14-2026 of 14 August.
An Update to the Four Decrees of 23 August
This is the second escalation in ten days. On 23 August the government published four separate supreme decrees covering an earthquake, El Niño, southern storms and flooding in Lima.
Three of those decrees ran for 60 days each. One covered five districts of Ayacucho hit by an earthquake, the others addressed El Niño preparedness and storm damage in the south and the capital.
A fourth measure, Supreme Decree No. 012-2026-PRODUCE, declared a 120-day emergency in fishing and aquaculture nationwide. No budget lines, financing sources or executing agencies were published for any of the four.
The new draft goes further. Instead of naming individual districts hit by past damage, it would put most of the country under a preventive emergency before the heaviest rains arrive.
A Fiscal Cushion at a 25-Year Low
The El Niño emergency planning comes as Peru’s fiscal room to maneuver looks thinner than at any point in a generation. Alonso Segura, president of the Fiscal Council, told the newspaper Gestión that the phenomenon “finds us with savings of financial assets at their lowest point in around 25 years.”
The comparison that matters is 2017, the year of the last devastating coastal El Niño. Back then the Fiscal Stabilization Fund, liquidity reserves and pre-agreed contingent credit lines added up to more than 4 percent of GDP.
Those buffers have been consumed since, first by the 2017 disaster and the pandemic, then by recent budgets. Segura called it lamentable that the savings were spent in years that brought record after record in commodity prices.
The finance ministry’s new multiannual macro framework admits the deterioration. It plans to raise spending for El Niño and to adjust the fiscal rules, rules the council had already described as impossible to meet.
What the Forecasters Expect
Peru’s ENFEN commission, the multisector body that studies El Niño, kept the country on Coastal El Niño Alert in its 28 August update. It sees a high probability that the coastal event persists until the southern summer of 2027.
The commission puts the probability of an extraordinary-magnitude event between September 2026 and January 2027 at about 62 percent. For February and March 2027 it expects a magnitude between strong and extraordinary.
In the central Pacific, the global El Niño is likely to reach very strong magnitude between September and January, with a probability of at least 58 percent. Above-normal rain is forecast for Peru’s north coast from November onward.
The economic stakes are real. The business institute IPE estimates a strong El Niño would shave 0.7 to 0.8 percentage points off GDP growth in 2026 and 2027, cutting into its 3.3 percent growth forecast for this year.
Farming Guilds Put Up Their Own Money
Private agriculture is not waiting for the state. AGAP, the association of agricultural producer guilds, and its member companies committed S/108 million (about US$32 million) to prevention works and relief.
Of that total, S/8 million (about US$2.4 million) will go to donations, including fuel and machinery for prevention work. The rest funds defensive infrastructure in the valleys most exposed to flooding.
The sector has reasons to move early. Peru’s export crops such as blueberries, grapes and asparagus grow largely in the northern coastal valleys that ENFEN expects to be hit hardest.
Currency conversions in this article use a rate of about S/3.35 per US dollar, the mid-market quote from Ria Money Transfer on 26 August 2026.
What to Watch
The first test is publication. Once the decree appears in El Peruano, its district list, duration and budget sources will show how serious the financing plan is, and the 23 August decrees named no financing at all.
The second test is fiscal. The government says it will adjust the fiscal rules to make room for El Niño spending, and the Fiscal Council will judge whether the new path is credible.
For the earlier steps in this escalation, read our report on the 23 August emergency decrees after the Ayacucho earthquake. The government first declared district-level emergencies before weighing the 22-region measure now on the table.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the El Niño emergency decree Peru is considering?
It is a draft supreme decree that would declare a state of emergency in districts of 22 regions plus Callao over imminent rain danger from El Niño 2026–2027. The cabinet debated it on 31 August 2026, but it had not been published at the time of writing.
What did Peru’s Fiscal Council warn about El Niño?
Council president Alonso Segura said El Niño finds Peru with financial-asset savings at their lowest point in about 25 years. In 2017 the country held emergency buffers worth more than 4 percent of GDP, which have since been spent.
What is the El Niño forecast for Peru in 2026–2027?
The ENFEN commission keeps a Coastal El Niño Alert and sees a roughly 62 percent probability of an extraordinary-magnitude event between September 2026 and January 2027. Above-normal rain is forecast for the north coast from November.
How much is Peruvian agriculture spending on El Niño prevention?
The AGAP farming guilds and their member companies committed S/108 million (about US$32 million) for prevention works and relief. Of that, S/8 million (about US$2.4 million) is earmarked for donations such as fuel and machinery.
Connected Coverage
Peru’s climate preparations come on top of a busy policy year. Read our coverage of the four emergency decrees of 23 August and of the congressional debate over revocable mining concessions and the investment pipeline.
Sources
Canal N · Gestión · SENAMHI / ENFEN · Agro Perú Informa · El Peruano
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