IBOV 176,641 ▲ 0.51% IPSA 11,024 ▲ 1.05% IPC MEX 66,514 ▲ 0.82% MERVAL 3,229,324 ▼ 0.18% COLCAP 2,298.73 ▼ 0.39% BVL PERÚ 56,428.20 ▲ 1.32% USD/BRL5.07▼ 1.23% USD/MXN17.41▼ 0.67% USD/CLP925.95▼ 0.75% USD/COP3,249▼ 0.42% USD/PEN3.41▼ 0.04% USD/ARS1,470▼ 0.88% USD/UYU40.23▲ 0.99% USD/PYG6,039▲ 1.12% USD/BOB10.35▲ 6.04% USD/DOP58.20▲ 0.20% USD/CRC448.93▲ 1.31% USD/GTQ7.62▲ 2.07% USD/HNL26.73▲ 1.38% USD/NIO36.62▲ 0.63% USD/VES722.19▼ 0.13% USD/PAB1.00— 0.00% USD/BZD2.00— 0.00% USD/JMD157.59▲ 0.64% USD/TTD6.75▲ 1.19% EUR/BRL5.79▼ 0.44% BRENT 85.77 ▲ 2.97% WTI 80.15 ▲ 2.57% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.38 ▲ 2.31% GOLD 4,037 ▲ 1.01% SILVER 58.61 ▲ 1.69% SOY 1,196 ▼ 0.48% CORN 461.00 ▲ 5.31% WHEAT 647.00 ▲ 3.19% COFFEE 327.00 ▼ 4.22% SUGAR 14.92 ▲ 1.15% ORANGE JUICE 140.90 ▼ 1.16% COTTON 81.68 ▲ 2.32% COCOA 5,936 ▲ 4.21% BEEF 231.58 ▼ 1.34% CATTLE 349.63 ▼ 1.33% LITHIUM 71.58 ▲ 1.91% PETR4 40.66 — 0.00% VALE3 74.01 ▲ 1.59% ITUB4 43.63 ▲ 0.25% BBDC4 18.63 ▼ 0.75% ABEV3 15.81 ▼ 0.13% BBAS3 20.59 ▲ 1.73% B3SA3 15.33 ▲ 1.39% WEGE3 44.20 ▼ 0.43% PRIO3 57.57 ▲ 0.65% SUZB3 41.11 ▼ 0.92% RENT3 40.54 ▲ 0.85% AZZA3 18.85 ▼ 1.93% CSAN3 3.89 ▼ 0.26% RAIZ4 0.31 ▼ 6.06% PCAR3 2.45 ▼ 5.41% GMAT3 3.96 ▲ 0.51% PSSA3 54.29 ▲ 0.46% CVCB3 1.38 ▲ 10.40% POSI3 3.99 — 0.00% SLCE3 13.81 ▼ 0.43% NATU3 8.55 ▼ 0.58% BRKM5 6.83 ▼ 1.59% RANI3 8.01 ▲ 0.75% CSNA3 5.20 ▼ 0.76% CMIN3 5.10 ▼ 6.42% USIM5 8.23 ▼ 1.79% GGBR4 23.32 ▲ 2.19% ENEV3 27.17 ▲ 1.08% CPFE3 47.20 ▲ 0.77% CMIG4 11.20 ▲ 1.17% EQTL3 40.95 ▲ 1.84% LREN3 14.29 ▲ 0.99% VIVT3 35.52 ▲ 2.27% RAIL3 14.13 ▲ 0.14% KLABIN 17.32 ▼ 0.92% RAIA DROGASIL 18.60 ▲ 2.20% RDOR3 36.05 ▲ 1.38% HAPV3 11.19 ▲ 6.98% FLRY3 16.41 ▲ 1.61% SMTO3 16.12 ▼ 1.53% UGPA3 30.11 ▼ 2.65% VBBR3 33.30 ▲ 1.65% BBSE3 40.39 ▲ 0.27% BPAC11 57.95 ▲ 0.75% CURY3 33.59 ▲ 1.42% AERI3 2.07 ▼ 0.48% VIVARA 23.43 ▲ 1.38% COMPASS 25.20 ▲ 1.74% VAMOS 3.15 ▲ 4.30% SANB11 27.34 ▼ 0.11% ASAI3 8.66 ▼ 0.57% SBSP3 30.34 ▼ 0.10% WALMEX 49.32 ▼ 0.66% GMEXICO 199.61 ▲ 2.06% FEMSA 232.52 ▲ 3.18% CEMEX 22.24 ▲ 2.11% GFNORTE 186.00 ▲ 2.16% BIMBO 56.55 ▲ 1.22% TELEVISA 9.49 ▼ 1.25% AMX 22.83 ▲ 1.06% GAP 394.05 ▼ 3.46% ASUR 275.61 ▼ 1.09% OMA 235.49 ▲ 0.93% KOF 180.00 ▼ 0.92% GRUMA 280.31 ▼ 0.38% KIMBER 38.53 ▲ 0.81% SQM-B 67,900 ▲ 1.03% COPEC 6,210 ▲ 2.52% BSANTANDER 78.64 ▲ 0.56% FALABELLA 5,875 ▼ 0.51% ENELAM 85.75 ▲ 1.84% CENCOSUD 2,040 — 0.00% CMPC 1,103 ▲ 2.32% BANCO CHILE 189.50 ▲ 2.43% LATAM AIR 24.90 — 0.00% YPF 77,775 ▲ 0.78% GGAL 7,910 ▼ 2.10% PAMPA 5,230 ▲ 0.10% TXAR 665.00 ▲ 0.08% ALUAR 949.00 ▼ 1.61% TGS 9,710 ▲ 1.46% CEPU 2,327 ▲ 0.35% MIRGOR 16,750 ▼ 1.47% COME 45.75 ▲ 2.17% LOMA NEGRA 3,540 ▲ 1.22% BYMA 302.50 ▼ 1.87% TELECOM ARG 4,333 ▲ 1.94% ECOPETROL 16.16 ▲ 1.76% BANCOLOMBIA 82.10 ▲ 2.09% GRUPO AVAL 4.95 ▲ 0.81% CREDICORP 392.24 ▲ 0.78% SOUTHERN COPPER 182.38 ▲ 4.50% BUENAVENTURA 31.03 ▲ 4.06% MERCADOLIBRE 1,874 ▲ 0.35% NUBANK 13.99 ▲ 2.34% XP 16.87 ▲ 3.05% PAGSEGURO 9.28 — 0.00% STONE 11.30 ▲ 1.35% GLOBANT 30.92 ▼ 3.74% TECNOGLASS 44.19 ▲ 3.15% GAP AIRPORT 225.95 ▼ 2.93% ASUR 275.61 ▼ 1.09% OMA AIRPORT 107.64 ▲ 1.42% AMX ADR 26.18 ▲ 0.58% FEMSA ADR 133.17 ▲ 3.22% CEMEX ADR 12.80 ▲ 2.81% PETROBRAS ADR 17.92 ▲ 0.22% VALE ADR 14.59 ▲ 2.89% ITAU ADR 8.55 ▲ 0.94% SANTANDER BR 5.40 ▲ 0.84% AMBEV ADR 3.09 ▲ 0.98% CSN 1.04 ▲ 0.49% GERDAU 4.61 ▲ 2.67% LATAM ADR 53.51 ▲ 0.34% BTC 64,441 ▲ 3.54% ETH 1,864 ▲ 5.13% SOL 77.01 ▲ 2.87% XRP 1.10 ▲ 3.13% BNB 578.88 ▲ 2.16% ADA 0.16 ▲ 3.22% DOGE 0.07 ▲ 2.49% AVAX 6.61 ▲ 2.57% LINK 8.26 ▲ 4.96% DOT 0.85 ▲ 2.21% LTC 44.83 ▲ 3.08% BCH 232.25 ▼ 1.69% TRX 0.33 ▲ 0.46% XLM 0.18 ▲ 0.78% HBAR 0.07 ▲ 0.82% NEAR 2.01 ▲ 4.71% ATOM 1.56 ▲ 1.30% AAVE 98.08 ▲ 3.94% SELIC 14.25% EMBRAER 82.49 ▼ 0.63% EMBRAER ADR 64.91 ▲ 0.67% JBS 11.83 ▲ 0.25% JBS BDR 59.75 ▼ 1.42% MBRF3 16.09 ▲ 2.35% MBRFY 3.14 ▲ 2.95% INTER 5.70 ▲ 0.89% EGX 52,299 ▼ 0.59% USD/ZAR16.35▼ 0.74% USD/NGN 1,381 — 0.00% NIKKEI 68,359 ▲ 0.91% CSI300 4,804 ▲ 0.16% HSI 24,552 ▲ 0.87% NIFTY 24,052 ▼ 0.66% KOSPI 7,346 ▲ 7.13% JCI 6,048 ▲ 0.15% USD/JPY162.11▼ 0.21% USD/CNY6.77▼ 0.21% DAX 25,147 ▲ 0.13% CAC 8,367 ▲ 0.03% FTSE 10,529 ▲ 0.30% MIB 52,863 ▲ 0.10% IBEX 19,357 ▲ 0.11% STOXX 642.10 ▲ 0.17% EUR/USD1.14▲ 0.49% GBP/USD1.34▲ 0.11% SPX 7,544 ▲ 0.38% DJI 52,508 ▲ 0.02% NDX 29,586 ▲ 1.10% RUT 2,965 ▲ 0.39% TSX 35,321 ▲ 0.19% VIX 16.50 ▼ 3.85% USD/CAD1.40▼ 0.79% US10Y 4.5850 ▼ 0.52% IBOV 176,641 ▲ 0.51% IPSA 11,024 ▲ 1.05% IPC MEX 66,514 ▲ 0.82% MERVAL 3,229,324 ▼ 0.18% COLCAP 2,298.73 ▼ 0.39% BVL PERÚ 56,428.20 ▲ 1.32% USD/BRL 5.07 ▼ 1.23% USD/MXN 17.41 ▼ 0.68% USD/CLP 925.95 ▼ 0.75% USD/COP 3,249 ▼ 0.42% USD/PEN 3.41 ▼ 0.04% USD/ARS 1,470 ▼ 0.88% USD/UYU 40.23 ▲ 0.99% USD/PYG 6,039 ▲ 1.12% USD/BOB 10.35 ▲ 6.04% USD/DOP 58.20 ▲ 0.20% USD/CRC 448.93 ▲ 1.31% USD/GTQ 7.62 ▲ 2.07% USD/HNL 26.73 ▲ 1.38% USD/NIO 36.62 ▲ 0.63% USD/VES 722.19 ▼ 0.13% USD/PAB 1.00 — 0.00% USD/BZD 2.00 — 0.00% USD/JMD 157.59 ▲ 0.64% USD/TTD 6.75 ▲ 1.19% EUR/BRL 5.79 ▼ 0.44% BRENT 85.77 ▲ 2.97% WTI 80.15 ▲ 2.57% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.38 ▲ 2.31% GOLD 4,037 ▲ 1.01% SILVER 58.61 ▲ 1.69% SOY 1,196 ▼ 0.48% CORN 461.00 ▲ 5.31% WHEAT 647.00 ▲ 3.19% COFFEE 327.00 ▼ 4.22% SUGAR 14.92 ▲ 1.15% ORANGE JUICE 140.90 ▼ 1.16% COTTON 81.68 ▲ 2.32% COCOA 5,936 ▲ 4.21% BEEF 231.58 ▼ 1.34% CATTLE 349.63 ▼ 1.33% LITHIUM 71.58 ▲ 1.91% PETR4 40.66 — 0.00% VALE3 74.01 ▲ 1.59% ITUB4 43.63 ▲ 0.25% BBDC4 18.63 ▼ 0.75% ABEV3 15.81 ▼ 0.13% BBAS3 20.59 ▲ 1.73% B3SA3 15.33 ▲ 1.39% WEGE3 44.20 ▼ 0.43% PRIO3 57.57 ▲ 0.65% SUZB3 41.11 ▼ 0.92% RENT3 40.54 ▲ 0.85% AZZA3 18.85 ▼ 1.93% CSAN3 3.89 ▼ 0.26% RAIZ4 0.31 ▼ 6.06% PCAR3 2.45 ▼ 5.41% GMAT3 3.96 ▲ 0.51% PSSA3 54.29 ▲ 0.46% CVCB3 1.38 ▲ 10.40% POSI3 3.99 — 0.00% SLCE3 13.81 ▼ 0.43% NATU3 8.55 ▼ 0.58% BRKM5 6.83 ▼ 1.59% RANI3 8.01 ▲ 0.75% CSNA3 5.20 ▼ 0.76% CMIN3 5.10 ▼ 6.42% USIM5 8.23 ▼ 1.79% GGBR4 23.32 ▲ 2.19% ENEV3 27.17 ▲ 1.08% CPFE3 47.20 ▲ 0.77% CMIG4 11.20 ▲ 1.17% EQTL3 40.95 ▲ 1.84% LREN3 14.29 ▲ 0.99% VIVT3 35.52 ▲ 2.27% RAIL3 14.13 ▲ 0.14% KLABIN 17.32 ▼ 0.92% RAIA DROGASIL 18.60 ▲ 2.20% RDOR3 36.05 ▲ 1.38% HAPV3 11.19 ▲ 6.98% FLRY3 16.41 ▲ 1.61% SMTO3 16.12 ▼ 1.53% UGPA3 30.11 ▼ 2.65% VBBR3 33.30 ▲ 1.65% BBSE3 40.39 ▲ 0.27% BPAC11 57.95 ▲ 0.75% CURY3 33.59 ▲ 1.42% AERI3 2.07 ▼ 0.48% VIVARA 23.43 ▲ 1.38% COMPASS 25.20 ▲ 1.74% VAMOS 3.15 ▲ 4.30% SANB11 27.34 ▼ 0.11% ASAI3 8.66 ▼ 0.57% SBSP3 30.34 ▼ 0.10% WALMEX 49.32 ▼ 0.66% GMEXICO 199.61 ▲ 2.06% FEMSA 232.52 ▲ 3.18% CEMEX 22.24 ▲ 2.11% GFNORTE 186.00 ▲ 2.16% BIMBO 56.55 ▲ 1.22% TELEVISA 9.49 ▼ 1.25% AMX 22.83 ▲ 1.06% GAP 394.05 ▼ 3.46% ASUR 275.61 ▼ 1.09% OMA 235.49 ▲ 0.93% KOF 180.00 ▼ 0.92% GRUMA 280.31 ▼ 0.38% KIMBER 38.53 ▲ 0.81% SQM-B 67,900 ▲ 1.03% COPEC 6,210 ▲ 2.52% BSANTANDER 78.64 ▲ 0.56% FALABELLA 5,875 ▼ 0.51% ENELAM 85.75 ▲ 1.84% CENCOSUD 2,040 — 0.00% CMPC 1,103 ▲ 2.32% BANCO CHILE 189.50 ▲ 2.43% LATAM AIR 24.90 — 0.00% YPF 77,775 ▲ 0.78% GGAL 7,910 ▼ 2.10% PAMPA 5,230 ▲ 0.10% TXAR 665.00 ▲ 0.08% ALUAR 949.00 ▼ 1.61% TGS 9,710 ▲ 1.46% CEPU 2,327 ▲ 0.35% MIRGOR 16,750 ▼ 1.47% COME 45.75 ▲ 2.17% LOMA NEGRA 3,540 ▲ 1.22% BYMA 302.50 ▼ 1.87% TELECOM ARG 4,333 ▲ 1.94% ECOPETROL 16.16 ▲ 1.76% BANCOLOMBIA 82.10 ▲ 2.09% GRUPO AVAL 4.95 ▲ 0.81% CREDICORP 392.24 ▲ 0.78% SOUTHERN COPPER 182.38 ▲ 4.50% BUENAVENTURA 31.03 ▲ 4.06% MERCADOLIBRE 1,874 ▲ 0.35% NUBANK 13.99 ▲ 2.34% XP 16.87 ▲ 3.05% PAGSEGURO 9.28 — 0.00% STONE 11.30 ▲ 1.35% GLOBANT 30.92 ▼ 3.74% TECNOGLASS 44.19 ▲ 3.15% GAP AIRPORT 225.95 ▼ 2.93% ASUR 275.61 ▼ 1.09% OMA AIRPORT 107.64 ▲ 1.42% AMX ADR 26.18 ▲ 0.58% FEMSA ADR 133.17 ▲ 3.22% CEMEX ADR 12.80 ▲ 2.81% PETROBRAS ADR 17.92 ▲ 0.22% VALE ADR 14.59 ▲ 2.89% ITAU ADR 8.55 ▲ 0.94% SANTANDER BR 5.40 ▲ 0.84% AMBEV ADR 3.09 ▲ 0.98% CSN 1.04 ▲ 0.49% GERDAU 4.61 ▲ 2.67% LATAM ADR 53.51 ▲ 0.34% BTC 64,441 ▲ 3.54% ETH 1,864 ▲ 5.13% SOL 77.01 ▲ 2.87% XRP 1.10 ▲ 3.13% BNB 578.88 ▲ 2.16% ADA 0.16 ▲ 3.22% DOGE 0.07 ▲ 2.49% AVAX 6.61 ▲ 2.57% LINK 8.26 ▲ 4.96% DOT 0.85 ▲ 2.21% LTC 44.83 ▲ 3.08% BCH 232.25 ▼ 1.69% TRX 0.33 ▲ 0.46% XLM 0.18 ▲ 0.78% HBAR 0.07 ▲ 0.82% NEAR 2.01 ▲ 4.71% ATOM 1.56 ▲ 1.30% AAVE 98.08 ▲ 3.94% SELIC 14.25% EMBRAER 82.49 ▼ 0.63% EMBRAER ADR 64.91 ▲ 0.67% JBS 11.83 ▲ 0.25% JBS BDR 59.75 ▼ 1.42% MBRF3 16.09 ▲ 2.35% MBRFY 3.14 ▲ 2.95% INTER 5.70 ▲ 0.89% EGX 52,299 ▼ 0.59% USD/ZAR 16.35 ▲ 0.08% USD/NGN 1,381 — 0.00% NIKKEI 68,359 ▲ 0.91% CSI300 4,804 ▲ 0.16% HSI 24,552 ▲ 0.87% NIFTY 24,052 ▼ 0.66% KOSPI 7,346 ▲ 7.13% JCI 6,048 ▲ 0.15% USD/JPY 162.10 ▼ 0.05% USD/CNY 6.7668 ▲ 0.07% DAX 25,147 ▲ 0.13% CAC 8,367 ▲ 0.03% FTSE 10,529 ▲ 0.30% MIB 52,863 ▲ 0.10% IBEX 19,357 ▲ 0.11% STOXX 642.10 ▲ 0.17% EUR/USD 1.1439 ▲ 0.12% GBP/USD 1.3402 ▲ 0.11% SPX 7,544 ▲ 0.38% DJI 52,508 ▲ 0.02% NDX 29,586 ▲ 1.10% RUT 2,965 ▲ 0.39% TSX 35,321 ▲ 0.19% VIX 16.50 ▼ 3.85% USD/CAD 1.4041 ▼ 0.14% US10Y 4.5850 ▼ 0.52%
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Opinion: The Curmudgeon on Illation and Premium Delation

By · September 9, 2014 · 3 min read

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Opinion, by Michael Royster

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Curmudgeon, who likes to think of himself as a polyglot, has been humbled. Last week, broad circulation newspapers use two words which the Curmudgeon knew not. The first was “ilação”, a word used by a former rubber tapper in reaction to an accusation made by a former executive, who perpetrated “delação premiada”.

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Illation is an obsolete word usually translated “inference”. One definition calls it “the reasoning involved in drawing a conclusion or making a logical judgment on the basis of circumstantial evidence and prior conclusions rather than on the basis of direct observation.” Marina Silva, her party’s candidate for President after her running mate Eduardo Campos died in a plane crash, was using it in this sense, as we shall see further on.

In Scottish law, to delate is to inform against, denounce or accuse. Its Latin roots mean that a delator is seeking to “bring down” someone, usually a criminal accomplice. In English, the common slang terms are stool pigeon, rat or fink. In Portuguese, it’s “dedo-duro” because the fink “fingers” someone else.

Since 1999 Brazilian penal law has permitted “delação premiada”—first offender criminals can win a “prêmio” or prize for voluntarily fingering their accomplices and other culprits. The prize can be a reduction of a sentence, or even a “get out of jail free” card. To grant a reprieve, the judge must consider the “nature, circumstances, gravity and societal repercussion” of the crime.

The “informant of the month” is Paulo Roberto Costa, for many years the Petrobras Director of Supplies. He has reportedly fingered some 61 personages, including some very high-ranking politicians. His “delations” are connected with two highly visible Petrobras refinery scandals: Pasadena, Texas and Abreu e Lima, Pernambuco, with billions of dollars of cost overruns. Those are numbers that definitely have societal repercussions.

According to the denunciation, for over a decade (if not more) 3% of every significant Petrobras project was siphoned off, through over-pricing and money laundering, into the accounts of politicos and their parties, so as to finance election campaigns. The principal source is government-owned companies (e.g. Petrobras) and private companies that depend upon winning government contracts for their business.

Back to “illation”. One huge project mentioned by Mr. Costa was the Abreu e Lima Refinery. According to Marina Silva, just because the refinery was built in Pernambuco, when Eduardo Campos was Governor, is not proof of anything, and it would be wrong to infer his involvement based on circumstantial evidence and prior assumptions.

The police investigation, called “Lava Jato” (“Car Wash”?), has focused on money laundering. It resulted in several imprisonments, including Mr. Costa and a famous “doleiro”. It is still ongoing, and is sealed, so no one knows the truth of Mr. Costa’s allegations. All those supposedly named by Mr. Costa have protested their innocence.

The Curmudgeon believes that if Mr. Costa is guaranteed no jail time, lots of prominent politicos will be shaking in their boots. This is because the Ministério Público, the independent public prosecutor’s office, will have approved it, and they are serious about prosecuting anyone, no matter how important. One initial indicator of how politically damaging this could be is that the Presidents of Brazil’s Senate and Chamber of Deputies, both fingered by Mr. Costa, chose not to appear at the annual 7 de Setembro parade in Brazil, for the first time in decades.

The Curmudgeon hopes that Operation Car-Wash does not turn into Operation Eye-Wash—something done only to impress an observer; as Brazilians say, “para inglês ver”.


Michael Royster, aka THE CURMUDGEON first saw Rio forty-plus years ago, fetched up on these shores exactly 36 years ago, still loves it, notwithstanding being a charter member of the most persecuted minority in (North) America today, the WASPs (google it!)(get over it!)

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