Opinion: Brazil’s Mayoral Elections – A Political Litmus Test

By J.R. Guzzo*

(Opinion) In the wake of turmoil stirring in Brasília, the critical issue facing Brazil’s near future is whether Jair Bolsonaro has reached the end of his political journey or if he continues to pose the existential threat claimed by the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the Lula administration, and their proponents.

Interestingly, the debate seems less concerned with the technical merit or factual basis of evidence provided by law enforcement and Minister Alexandre de Moraes but is driven more by beliefs.

Many hold Bolsonaro accountable for 700,000 deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic, convinced of his intentions to orchestrate a coup, either before or after his presidency, as suggested by Federal Police (PF) statements and the minister.

Conversely, a portion of the populace remains skeptical, viewing the evidence as insufficient for such allegations.

Discussions of coups and related documents surface, yet no concrete action toward an actual coup has been evidenced.

This scenario mirrors debates on abstract concepts, where proof is neither here nor there; belief is the cornerstone.

In modern Brazil, the concept of evidence has become elusive.

For example, admitting to a crime or returning stolen funds does not necessarily implicate guilt, whereas mundane items could be misconstrued as evidence of a coup.

Essentially, evidence is whatever the STF defines it to be, with judgments swayed more by the identity of the accused rather than the acts committed.

Thus, the debate transcends legal boundaries, entering the realm of politics.

Brazil’s Mayoral Elections – A Political Litmus Test

Politically, Bolsonaro presents a challenge.

Declared ineligible by the Superior Electoral Court, this decision ostensibly simplifies matters for his potential competitors, yet his detractors view him as a persistent electoral force.

Ideally for them, Bolsonaro would be incarcerated during this year’s municipal election campaign, unable to engage in live streams, travel across Brazil, support candidates, or utilize social media.

Will these measures suffice?

The upcoming mayoral elections will critically assess Brazilian politics, revealing whether voters believe in the alleged coup attempt by Bolsonaro and, importantly, how much this belief impacts their electoral decisions.

* This is a short version of J.R. Guzzo’s opinion piece, published in the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo on February 11, 2024