Mexico Morning Markets: Peso Steady Near 18, IPC Takes A Breather

Key Points

• USD/MXN held near 17.99 as Mexico inflation and Banxico minutes loom, ahead of Friday’s U.S. payrolls.
• The IPC slipped 0.23% to 64,871.7, while the weekly chart stayed up about 1.14%.
• DXY sat near 98.7, keeping risk calm, but tariff and data headlines remained the swing factor.

The Mexican peso started Thursday almost unchanged, with USD/MXN around 17.988 after Wednesday’s close near 17.97. The dollar index hovered around 98.7. A MUFG strategist called the latest U.S. numbers “a mixed picture,” and that tone carried into the overnight session.

Today’s focus is domestic: Mexico’s December inflation print and Banxico minutes. Into the releases, one desk framed a working range of roughly 17.91–18.01. U.S. jobless claims later today and Friday’s payrolls remain the next external test.

Technically, the peso looks boxed in. On the 4-hour view, the market kept leaning on 18.00. A break above 18.00–18.03 would point to 18.10–18.13, then 18.22–18.32.

On the daily chart, RSI sat in the mid-40s, with support at 17.95–17.96 and then 17.87–17.84 if risk turns. Traders also watched a U.S. Supreme Court decision tied to tariff policy as a potential dollar-positive jolt.

Mexico equities told a similar story. The S&P/BMV IPC ended Wednesday down 0.23% at 64,871.7 after being down about 0.33% earlier in the session.

The weekly candle still showed a gain of about 1.14%, and the near-term map is clear: support sits around 64,200–64,000, while resistance clusters near 64,950–65,150.

Gold eased toward $4,463/oz, while WTI sat near $56.31 and Brent near $60.30. Despite the IPC dip, activity was heavy: one count put trading near 160 million shares worth about MXN 17.16 billion, while an exchange snapshot showed roughly 126 million shares.

EWW, the main U.S.-listed Mexico ETF, closed at $69.92 on about 1.07 million shares, with net assets near $1.924 billion. Emerging-market equity flows were modestly positive into year-end.

Top winners: GFINBURO +3.21%, SIGMAFA +2.47%, CHDRAUIB +2.36%, RA +2.32%, CUERVO +2.29%.

Top losers: CEMEXCPO -2.81%, TLEVISACPO -2.08%, PEOLES -1.96%, GMEXICOB -1.68%, KIMBERA -1.35%.

The through-line is credibility. Predictable rules and central-bank independence keep Mexico investable. State-heavy, populist impulses are what markets keep pricing as tail risk.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexican markets and Latin American financial news.

For regional context, see the Brazil’s Ibovespa report: Brazil’s Ibovespa.

For regional context, see the Argentina’s Merval report: Argentina’s Merval.