Colombia’s Peso Tries To Base As Stocks Consolidate Near Record Levels

Key Points

1. USD/COP is hovering near 3,754–3,755 this morning after a volatile Wednesday that ended with the market rebounding into the close.
2. The MSCI COLCAP is consolidating near record territory, supported by heavy trading in Ecopetrol and a large Nutresa buyback.
3. Global dollar steadiness ahead of U.S. payrolls is keeping direction muted, while Colombia’s policy debate keeps risk premiums alive.

Colombia’s markets opened Thursday with the peso steady-to-firmer, even as traders remain wary of sudden swings. Early pricing showed USD/COP around 3,754.5, close to today’s official TRM of 3,748.83, while the dollar index sat near 98.7.

The message from desks was simple: the global dollar is not giving a clean signal into the U.S. jobs report, so Colombia is trading on flows.

That flow story was obvious on Wednesday. The onshore market opened near 3,722.5, dipped toward 3,710, then surged to about 3,773.9 before ending around 3,742.

The session average near 3,749 and reported spot turnover of roughly $1.04 billion across about 1,300 trades underlined how quickly positioning can flip when liquidity thins.

Technically, the peso is attempting a short-term base. On the 4-hour view, momentum improved, with RSI back above 50 and the MACD histogram edging positive, consistent with a rebound attempt.

The daily picture is less convincing: RSI remains below 50 and MACD is still negative, leaving 3,780–3,800 as the “prove-it” zone. Weekly signals still lean bearish, with support in the low 3,700s and risk of a slide toward the high 3,600s if that floor breaks.

Equities are calmer. The MSCI COLCAP closed Wednesday at 2,171.87, down 0.18%, with traded value near COP 719.8 billion.

Ecopetrol dominated the tape, with about 49.5 million shares and COP 102.8 billion in value, touching COP 2,120 intraday before ending near COP 2,020.

In New York, the ADR was cited above $11.21 intraday. Grupo Nutresa added a corporate bid: it executed a buyback of about 1.94 million shares (0.42% of float) at COP 300,000 each, costing roughly COP 585 billion. The iShares COLCAP local fund also flagged a COP 102.57 per-unit distribution dated Jan. 7.

Top Winners (So Far)

1. Short-term peso stabilization near the TRM
2. COLCAP’s hold near record levels
3. Nutresa buyback-driven demand
4. Liquidity concentration in Ecopetrol
5. Rules-based domestic allocation that kept bids active

Top Losers (So Far)

1. Intraday peso volatility and wider hedging costs
2. Breakout bulls, with daily trend still unconfirmed
3. Foreign-risk sentiment, still cautious after prior net selling
4. Anyone betting on policy experimentation to “manage” markets
5. Thin liquidity pockets that amplify moves when headlines hit

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombian markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Chile’s IPSA closed the same session.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | America’s Productivity Surge Is Cooling Wage Inflation Witho

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