Argentina’s Peso Holds Its Nerve as Reserves Rise and a Big Bond Payment Nears
Key Points
- The peso’s single-digit parallel premium signals lower near-term devaluation stress.
- The central bank is buying dollars again, reinforcing a rule-based FX band framework.
- Stocks are near highs, but leadership is rotating.
The peso started Wednesday with a narrow spread across dollar markets. The wholesale rate was near 1,467 pesos, the street “blue” around 1,520, and Banco Nación’s retail rate near 1,490.
Financial dollars were close: MEP near 1,498 and CCL near 1,539, implying about a 2% to 5% premium over wholesale.
On Tuesday, the central bank bought about $83 million, roughly 14.5% of the day’s $573.4 million spot volume, as the wholesale rate slipped about 0.2% to 1,467.50. Officials said the “5% of volume” yardstick is a reference, not a hard limit.
Gross reserves rose to about $44.187 billion, up roughly $787 million, helped by central bank purchases, valuation gains, and about $700 million tied to Comahue hydropower concession transfers.
The band ceiling was cited near 1,533.91, leaving the official rate about 4.5% below the level that would force reserve sales. Net reserves remain negative.
That keeps attention on January 9, when Argentina faces a hard-currency bond payment of about $4.2 billion. Investors are watching the funding mix—treasury deposits, a repo, privatization-linked inflows, or other backstops—because it shapes liquidity after the payment.
The global backdrop was also watchful. The dollar index eased to around 98.54, and Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Carol Kong said markets are “more concerned about U.S. economic data” than geopolitics.
Charts suggest momentum is cooling. USD/ARS looks stretched on a 4-hour view with RSI near 74, while the weekly RSI sits near 63. The S&P Merval hovered around 3.11 million, with daily RSI near 61 and 4-hour RSI in the mid-50s.
ARGT traded near $93.23, with net outflows of about $8.27 million over five days and $31.37 million over a month, while assets were near $769.8 million.
Top 5 winners: BYMA, Ternium Argentina, Grupo Supervielle, Grupo Financiero Galicia, Aluar.
Top 5 losers: Sociedad Comercial del Plata, Transener, Cresud, Metrogas, YPF.
Verification: No overlap with earlier reports in this chat.
Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Argentina’s Central Bank Uses $3 Billion Repo To Shore Up Re This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Argentina affairs and Latin American financial news.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
+0.53%
174,586.26
+0.01%
66,644.91
+0.53%
11,369.18
-0.71%
3,024,971
+0.53%
2,504.68
-0.15%
60,449.35
+0.30%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,024,971 | +0.53% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
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