Mexico IPC Today Falls 0.66% as Fourth Losing Week Tests 65,000 Floor

Market Snapshot

Mexico IPC Today: Equities

The Mexico IPC today enters Tuesday’s session after a long weekend that saw Wall Street stage a 1% relief rally while the BMV sat idle. The last traded session on Friday March 13 produced a 0.66% decline to 65,648.91, extending the fourth consecutive losing week—the worst streak since mid-2024. La Jornada’s Humberto Calzada Díaz of Rankia Latinoamérica attributed the ongoing weakness to international volatility from the Middle East conflict. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Mexican stock market and Latin American financial markets.

For context, see our prior session’s report: Mexico IPC Drops as Peso Nears 18. Also read: Mexico IPC Gains 0.76% as Oil Crash Eases Inflation Fears.

Friday’s losers were led by Peñoles (−5.26%), Grupo México (−2.63%), and Becle (−2.62%), the last of which continues its drift ahead of removal from the IPC on March 23 when Volaris enters the index. Gainers were scarce: Banco del Bajío (+3.19%) posted the strongest advance, followed by Walmex (+1.96%) and Televisa (+1.08%). Banamex analysts noted the IPC has been “pressured mainly by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, amid increased risk aversion among investors.”

The IPC now sits 8.96% below its February 12 all-time high of 72,111.41 and just 2.35% above its 2026 low of 64,141.36. The weekly loss of 2.47% was the fourth consecutive negative week. Analysts at BX+, Banorte, and Monex continue to project a year-end target of 73,000–73,500, implying roughly 11% upside from current levels, but those forecasts predate the $100+ Brent scenario.

Currency

The Mexican peso exchange rate today faces a challenging reopening after the long weekend. The last traded rate on Friday was MXN 17.9489 per dollar (Banxico), with the FIX set at MXN 17.9218 and the obligations rate at MXN 17.8368. The peso lost 0.46% on the week, its second consecutive weekly decline, as the Hormuz crisis continued to feed dollar demand.

Banco Base’s Gabriela Siller warned that the exchange rate “has consolidated above the 17.60 support and on three occasions has approached the key resistance of 18.00,” adding that continued Middle East disruptions would maintain upward pressure through March. El Heraldo de México reported the peso also faced headwinds from U.S. data: Q4 GDP grew just 0.7% (down from 4.4% in Q3) while core PCE rose to 3.1%, the highest in two years, creating a stagflationary backdrop.

Banxico’s policy rate remains at 7.00% after the unanimous February 5 pause. The next decision is March 26, where a hold is virtually certain given February inflation at 4.02% (core 4.50%) and Brent above $100. The Monday holiday means no FIX was published for March 16; the next official rate will be Tuesday’s. Year-end USD/MXN forecasts range from MXN 19.30 (Banorte) to MXN 20.50 (Banxico survey), with Hacienda projecting MXN 19.70.

Technical Analysis & Chart

Friday’s candle was a small red body within a moderate range: the IPC opened at 66,106.97, rallied to 66,515.64 before selling off to a low of 65,575.92, then closed at 65,648.91 near the bottom of the range. The upper wick and close near the low signal persistent selling pressure above 66,500, consistent with a market in a well-defined downtrend.

Momentum indicators remain bearish. The MACD line at −159.39 sits above the signal at −616.67, with the histogram at −776.06 deeply negative. The slow RSI at 34.39 has now entered oversold territory, while the fast RSI at 47.19 remains neutral. This divergence between the two RSI readings reflects a market where the selling momentum has been severe but short-term mean reversion pressure is building.

The 200-day SMA at approximately 62,352.38 sits 5.3% below current levels, confirming the long-term uptrend remains intact despite the sharp correction. The index is trading below virtually all short-term and medium-term moving averages, with the MA cluster near 67,571–67,970 forming immediate overhead resistance.

Key support sits at 65,556 (lower Bollinger Band) and then the psychological 64,000 level, which aligns with the January 2026 low of 64,141. A break below 64,000 would signal a deeper correction toward the 200-day SMA near 62,352. To the upside, the IPC must reclaim 66,500 to signal any near-term stabilization, with 67,571 (the first MA cluster) as the critical level for a trend reversal.

Key Levels

Global Context

While the BMV was closed Monday, global markets staged a tentative recovery. The S&P 500 gained 1.01% to 6,699.38 after reports that select tankers had navigated the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, easing the most extreme supply-disruption fears. The Dow rose 0.83% to 46,946.41, led by Salesforce (+2.86%) and Amazon (+1.93%). Nvidia gained 1.6% ahead of its GTC conference.

Brent crude pulled back from its pre-market peak near $106 to close around $101.77, its first retreat from the $103+ level in three sessions. The IEA’s March Oil Market Report described the Hormuz disruption as the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market, with at least 10 million barrels per day curtailed. The EIA projects Brent remaining above $95 for the next two months before easing to $80 by Q3 and $70 by year-end.

For the Mexico IPC today, the reopening after the long weekend carries both risk and opportunity. Wall Street’s Monday rally provides a positive overnight lead, but Mexico’s sensitivity to the oil dynamic is nuanced: as a Pemex producer, higher crude supports fiscal revenues, but as a net gasoline importer with inflation already at 4.02%, the $100+ Brent environment complicates the rate-cut cycle. The Fed begins its two-day meeting today, with a hold at 3.50–3.75% widely expected but the dot plot and statement language pivotal for EM sentiment.

Looking Ahead

Today (March 17): BMV reopens after the Benito Juárez holiday. Expect the IPC to price in Monday’s Wall Street rally (+1.01%) and the Brent pullback to $101.77, creating a modestly positive setup at the open. The T-MEC review discussion continues this week, adding trade uncertainty.

March 17–18: The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting Wednesday. No rate change expected, but the updated dot plot and Chair Powell’s press conference will drive peso dynamics. CME FedWatch shows 95.6% probability of a hold. Any hawkish signal would pressure the peso toward the critical MXN 18 level.

March 23: The IPC rebalance takes effect—Volaris (VOLAR) replaces Becle (CUERVO). Rebalancing flows will generate short-term volume spikes in both names. Banorte analysts noted Becle dropped to position 36 in the liquidity ranking while Volaris rose to 35.

March 26: Banxico’s next rate decision. The unanimous February 5 pause at 7.00%, combined with February inflation at 4.02% (core 4.50%) and Brent above $100, makes a hold virtually certain. The tone of the statement on oil-driven inflation risks and growth concerns will shape expectations for Q2 easing. Subgovernor Galia Borja had signaled room for further cuts before the Iran crisis; those signals are now on hold.

Verdict

The BMV reopens Tuesday from a position of accumulated weakness: four consecutive losing weeks, an 8.96% correction from the all-time high, and a peso flirting with the MXN 18 threshold. The long weekend created a gap between the BMV’s last traded price and the evolved global landscape—Wall Street rallied 1%, Brent eased from $103 to $102, and the VIX dropped below 26—which should provide a constructive lead for the open.

However, structural headwinds persist. Oil above $100 is a double-edged sword for Mexico: it supports Pemex but undermines the consumer and complicates Banxico’s easing timeline. The slow RSI at 34.39 is in oversold territory, suggesting a mean-reversion bounce is overdue, but the four-week losing streak signals that dip-buyers have been consistently wrong since early March. The IPC rebalance on March 23 and the Banxico decision on March 26 are the domestic catalysts most likely to break the current range.

Bias: Cautiously neutral with a tactical bounce expected. Monday’s Wall Street rally and the Brent pullback set up a gap-up open, but the IPC needs to reclaim 67,571 (the MA cluster) to signal any meaningful trend reversal. A failure at 66,500 would confirm the downtrend and reopen the path to the January low of 64,141. The Fed statement Wednesday is the week’s binary event for the peso.

Deep Dive

For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide

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