IPC Closed Last Week With Fourth Consecutive Loss.
The S&P/BMV IPC fell 0.66% to 65,648.91 on Friday, its second consecutive losing session and fourth straight negative week — the worst streak since mid-2024. La Jornada reported the BMV lost 2.49% on the week and has now shed 8.06% from its February close of 71,405. Peñoles led losses at −5.26%, followed by Grupo México (−2.63%) and Becle (−2.62%). Banco del Bajío bucked the trend with a +3.19% gain.
Peso Closed Friday at 17.95, Nearly Touching 18.
The USD/MXN spot closed at MXN 17.9489 per Banxico, depreciating 0.58% on the session and 0.82% on the week. Banco Base’s Gabriela Siller warned the peso likely faces continued upward pressure on the dollar during March if the Hormuz disruption persists. The peso had been near MXN 16 before the Iran conflict erupted, and the MXN 18 resistance is now the critical near-term level.
Brent Closed Above $103 Friday; Kharg Island Strikes Over Weekend.
Brent settled at $103.14 on Friday (+2.67%), its second consecutive close above $100. After markets closed, President Trump ordered strikes against Iranian military assets on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export hub. Brent opened Monday near $105. The S&P 500 fell 0.61% to 6,632.19, posting its third consecutive losing week and a new 2026 low.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P/BMV IPC | 65,648.91 | −0.66% |
| IPC Weekly | — | −2.47% |
| USD/MXN Spot Close | MXN 17.9489 | +0.58% |
| Banxico FIX | MXN 17.8368 | — |
| Brent Crude (Fri) | $103.14 | +2.67% |
| WTI Crude (Fri) | $98.71 | +3.11% |
| S&P 500 (Fri) | 6,632.19 | −0.61% |
| IPC from ATH (71,601) | — | −8.31% |
Mexico Stock Market IPC Today: Equities
The Mexico stock market IPC today enters Monday after closing its fourth consecutive losing week on Friday, falling 0.66% to 65,648.91 with volume at 104.65 million titles. El CEO reported Investing.com data showing Peñoles as the worst performer at −5.26% to MXN 906.02, dragged down by falling gold and silver prices intraday. Grupo México shed 2.63% to MXN 187.15 and Becle lost 2.62% to MXN 18.58 ahead of its expected removal from the IPC on March 23.
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Mexican stock market and Latin American financial markets.
For context, see our prior session’s report: Mexico IPC Gains +0.76% as Oil Crash Eases Inflation Fears.
Also read: Mexico IPC Drops 1.56% to 67,313; Peso Sheds 3.3% Weekly.
On the positive side, Banco del Bajío gained 3.19% to MXN 50.40, Walmex rose 1.96% to MXN 57.11, and Televisa added 1.08%. La Jornada’s Humberto Calzada Díaz of Rankia Latinoamérica attributed the losses to the persistent uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, noting the BMV “has been infected by all the international volatility.” He added that potential catalysts for recovery include better Mexican growth expectations, a successful T-MEC negotiation, and a resolution of the conflict.
The IPC now sits 8.31% below its February 12 all-time high of 71,601.35 and just 2.35% above its 2026 low of 64,141.36. The weekly loss of 2.47% was the fourth consecutive losing week, the worst streak since mid-2024. Banamex analysts noted the IPC “has been pressured mainly by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, amid increased risk aversion among investors.” Analysts at BX+, Banorte, and Monex continue to project a year-end target of 73,000–73,500, but those forecasts predate the $100+ Brent environment.
Currency
The Mexican peso exchange rate today extended its decline, with the USD/MXN spot closing at MXN 17.9489 on Friday — depreciating 0.58% (10.40 centavos) on the session and 0.82% (15.89 centavos) on the week, per El Financiero and Banxico data. The peso is now approaching the psychologically critical MXN 18 level, having been near MXN 16 before the Iran conflict erupted.
Banco Base’s Gabriela Siller warned that “the exchange rate has consolidated above the 17.60 support and on three occasions has approached the key resistance of 18.00.” She added it is “probable that, if the war in the Middle East continues and energy market disruptions persist, the exchange rate will continue facing upward pressure during March.” Felipe Mendoza of EBC Financial Group noted that despite the Mexico stock market IPC today pullback, Mexico’s record exports to the U.S. at the start of 2026 provide structural support for the peso.
Banxico’s policy rate remains at 7.00% following the unanimous February 5 pause. The next decision is March 26, where a hold is now virtually certain given February inflation at 4.02% (core 4.50%) and oil above $100. Year-end USD/MXN forecasts range from MXN 19.30 (Banorte) to MXN 20.50 (Banxico survey), with Hacienda projecting MXN 19.70. The T-MEC review discussion scheduled for March 16 (today) adds another layer of peso risk.
Technical Analysis & Chart
Friday’s candle opened at 66,106.97, rallied to 66,515.64 early in the session, then sold off to a low of 65,575.92 before closing at 65,648.91. The long upper wick signals sellers emerging on attempted rallies — a bearish continuation signal. The IPC closed near its session low for the second consecutive day.
Momentum indicators are deteriorating further. The MACD line at −159.39 sits above the signal at −616.67, with the histogram at −776.06 deeply negative and widening. The RSI slow component at 34.39 is now in oversold territory (below 35), while the fast line at 47.19 remains mid-range — a bearish divergence that typically precedes further downside before a sustainable bounce.
The 200-day SMA at 62,352.38 provides structural support 5.0% below current levels. The correction from the 71,601 ATH now stands at 8.31% — approaching the 10% threshold that would officially constitute a correction. The index needs to hold above 65,556 (lower Bollinger zone) to avoid testing the 64,141 January low.
On the upside, the 67,571 level (prior support) is the first meaningful resistance, with the 67,957–68,370 MA cluster representing the zone the IPC must reclaim to signal the corrective phase is ending. The Kharg Island weekend escalation introduces gap risk for Monday’s open.
Key Levels
| Level | Price | Significance |
| Resistance 3 | 68,769.20 | Upper Bollinger Band |
| Resistance 2 | 67,970.09 | Moving average cluster |
| Resistance 1 | 67,571.10 | Prior support, now resistance |
| Last Close | 65,648.91 | Friday session close |
| Support 1 | 65,556.07 | Lower Bollinger zone |
| Support 2 | 64,141.36 | 2026 YTD low (January) |
| Support 3 | 62,352.38 | 200-day SMA |
Global Context
Friday’s global session capped a brutal week for risk assets. Brent crude settled at $103.14 (+2.67%), its second consecutive close above $100, while WTI ended at $98.71 (+3.11%). CNBC reported oil has surged roughly 35% in its biggest weekly gain since 1983. The S&P 500 fell 0.61% to 6,632.19, its third straight losing week and a new 2026 low. The Dow lost 0.26% and the Nasdaq shed 0.9%.
After markets closed Friday, President Trump ordered strikes against Iran’s Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil export hub. Trump said oil infrastructure was not targeted but warned it could be. Brent opened Monday near $105.36 (+2.15%) as the Iran war enters its third week. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% in Sunday night trading. CNBC reported the IEA’s emergency release of 400 million barrels has failed to cool prices, and Iran’s spokesperson warned oil could reach $200 if regional security continues to deteriorate.
For Mexico, the oil escalation is a complex equation. As a net crude exporter, Pemex benefits from elevated prices — but as a major refined-fuel importer with inflation already at 4.02%, higher oil feeds directly into gasoline costs and CPI. The February U.S. jobs report showing the economy lost 92,000 jobs added to stagflation fears, while core PCE inflation at 3.1% confirmed the Fed is trapped. Analysts now project no Fed rate cuts until at least the second half of 2026, keeping the dollar strong and the peso under pressure.
Looking Ahead
Today (March 16): Markets react to the weekend Kharg Island strikes. Brent is above $105 in pre-market. Banks in Mexico are closed for a holiday, but the BMV operates normally. The T-MEC review discussion is also scheduled for today, adding trade uncertainty to the oil-driven volatility. Nvidia’s GTC conference begins.
March 17–18: The Federal Reserve’s second policy meeting of 2026. No rate change expected (95.6% probability of hold per CME), but the dot plot and statement language will be pivotal for peso dynamics. Morgan Stanley expects rates unchanged.
March 23: IPC rebalance takes effect — Volaris (VOLAR) replaces Becle (CUERVO). Rebalancing flows expected.
March 26: Banxico’s next rate decision. With oil above $100 and February inflation at 4.02% (core 4.50%), a hold at 7.00% is virtually certain. The Mexico stock market IPC today faces a challenging near-term setup: the Kharg Island escalation, the T-MEC discussion, and the Fed meeting all represent potential negative catalysts, while the RSI approaching oversold territory suggests a tactical bounce could materialize if any of these risks resolve constructively.
Verdict
The Mexico stock market IPC today is caught in a multi-front squeeze. The Iran oil shock has pushed the peso toward MXN 18, sent the IPC into its worst four-week streak since 2024, and created a stagflationary risk that eliminates any near-term rate-cut possibility. The Kharg Island weekend escalation introduces fresh gap risk for Monday, with Brent above $105 threatening to push the correction past 10%.
The technical picture is increasingly bearish. The RSI slow component at 34.39 has entered oversold territory, but the MACD histogram at −776 is deeply negative and widening, suggesting the selloff has momentum. The IPC needs to hold above the 64,141 January low to prevent a more severe de-rating; a break below would signal that the entire 2025–2026 rally is under threat.
Bias: Bearish near-term, neutral medium-term. The oil shock creates a stagflationary headwind that the IPC cannot easily escape: higher energy costs delay Banxico rate cuts, weaken the peso, and compress equity valuations. The structural bull case — nearshoring flows, FIFA World Cup 2026, and corporate earnings growth — remains intact but is being severely tested. The Strait of Hormuz resolution and the Fed decision are the two immediate pivots. A close below 65,556 this week targets the January low of 64,141; above 67,571 shifts bias to neutral.