Iron Ore Holds Above $100 As China Balances Stimulus Hopes And Structural Slowdown

Iron ore is starting the week still looking remarkably solid for a market supposedly past its peak.

Benchmark 62% Fe fines delivered to China are trading around $104–105 a tonne on the Singapore and U.S. futures curves, extending the narrow band that has held prices just above $100 for most of November.

Over the past seven days, futures barely moved, slipping by only a few cents as traders weighed modestly better steel output against weak property data.

Overnight in Asia, however, prices nudged higher: the most-traded Dalian contract climbed back toward 780 yuan, and Singapore futures tested the top of their recent range after Chinese officials signalled stronger fiscal support over the next five years and mills reported a small rebound in hot-metal output.

The underlying picture is more complicated than a simple “stimulus trade”. Chinese steelmakers have been trimming crude-steel production compared with last year, and the country’s property sector remains under heavy strain after years of easy credit and politically driven building booms.

Yet seaborne imports of iron ore are still on track for record volumes in 2025, underscoring how hard it is for Beijing to engineer a rapid shift away from heavy industry without derailing growth.

On the supply side, the long-discussed Simandou project in Guinea has finally entered a more concrete launch phase, promising large volumes of high-grade ore later this decade.

Major miners such as Vale are already talking more openly about a world where Chinese demand plateaus and incremental growth comes from India and Southeast Asia, even as they keep current supply disciplined. Technically, the market looks caught between those forces.

Four-hour charts show prices bouncing from support around $103, with momentum indicators turning up and short-term signals pointing higher. Daily charts, though, still describe a broad $101–107 trading corridor rather than a new bull market.

For now, iron ore’s message is that fundamentals still matter more than political slogans: disciplined supply, cautious mills and a wary Chinese state are keeping the market steady, not ideology or grand promises of endless building.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error