Ipespe Poll Has Caiado Voters 59% for Flávio
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —Why it matters The three eliminated candidates in the poll won about 8.7 million votes on 4 October, nearly four times the 2.2 million votes that separated the finalists.
- —Why now Ipespe published the survey on Saturday 17 October, eight days before the runoff and after the main endorsements had been declared.
- —What happened Ipespe found that 59% of Caiado voters, 50% of Cury voters and 40% of Renan Santos voters now choose Flávio.
- —The numbers Lula gets 18%, 31% and 20% of those three groups, and 32% of Santos voters plan a blank or spoiled ballot.
- —What it means for you US investors can read the transfers as one input in a close race, with Flávio on 51.2% and Lula on 48.8% of valid votes.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 81% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (18 October, 2:45 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 81% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 20% and 20%), as of 18 October, 3:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Still open How many of these voters turn out, and whether the small subgroups in a 1,500-person sample are reliable.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
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A new Ipespe poll shows 59% of Ronaldo Caiado’s first-round voters now back Flávio Bolsonaro, against 18% for Lula. It was published on Saturday 17 October, eight days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October.
For US investors, the runoff decides Brazil’s course on trade and relations with Washington, so every voter bloc counts. Our Brazil election polls tracker, Brazil election odds page and Brazil runoff date guide follow the race.
The three men were eliminated on 4 October, and as we reported in Brazil’s 4 Defeated Candidates Endorse No One in Runoff, none backed a finalist that night. Caiado and Augusto Cury declared for Flávio within days, as Brazil’s Caiado, Zema Back Flávio for 25 October Runoff also showed.
What the Ipespe Poll Found
Ipespe interviewed 1,500 voters from 13 to 15 October, with a margin of error of 2.6 points at a 95.45% confidence level. The survey is registered with the electoral court TSE under number BR-00223/2026, and Estadão Conteúdo and Veja both name Abrapel, the association of Brazilian research firms, alongside Ipespe.
In valid votes, Flávio has 51.2% and Lula 48.8%, so the gap fell from 5.4 points to 2.4 points in a week. Among all respondents Flávio has 48%, down from 49%, and Lula 46%, up from 44%.
Our earlier report, Ipespe Poll Has Flávio 51.2%, Lula 48.8%, covers that headline result. This article looks at where the voters of the eliminated candidates are heading.
Where Cury, Caiado and Renan Voters Are Going
Augusto Cury, of the Avante party, finished third on 4 October with 3,448,569 votes, or 2.89% of valid votes. Among people who say they voted for him, 50% now choose Flávio and 31% choose Lula, while 3% plan a blank or spoiled ballot and 17% are undecided or gave no answer.
Ronaldo Caiado, of the PSD party and a former governor of Goiás, finished fifth with 2,605,148 votes, or 2.18%. Among his voters, 59% choose Flávio and 18% choose Lula, with 6% planning a blank or spoiled ballot and 18% undecided or giving no answer.
Caiado’s group shows the largest move towards Flávio of the three blocs that Ipespe reports separately, according to Veja. Cury’s group favours Flávio by 19 points and Caiado’s by 41 points.
Renan Santos, of the new Missão party, finished fourth with 2,675,887 votes, or 2.24%. His voters are the most fragmented, with 40% choosing Flávio, 20% Lula, 32% planning a blank or spoiled ballot and 8% undecided.
That means almost a third of the Santos bloc says it will choose neither finalist. By comparison, only 3% of Lula’s first-round voters and 3% of Cury’s plan a blank or spoiled ballot, Estadão Conteúdo reported.
The two finalists keep their own voters almost intact, with 97% of Flávio’s first-round voters staying with him and 96% of Lula’s staying with the president. Only 2% of Flávio’s voters now choose Lula, and 1% of Lula’s choose Flávio.
How Much These Voters Weigh in the Runoff
In the first round, the electoral court counted Flávio on 47.03% of valid votes (56,104,503) and Lula on 45.16% (53,879,538), a gap of 2,224,965 votes. Cury, Santos and Caiado together won 8,729,604 votes, about 7.3% of the 119,300,788 valid votes, which is our own calculation from the count reported by Folha de Pernambuco.
That total is nearly four times the gap between the finalists, so even modest transfers could matter in a close race. The poll cannot be turned into a vote count, because it records what respondents say they did and not how they actually voted.
Caiado declared his support for Flávio on Tuesday 6 October at an event in Goiânia, according to g1. Cury followed on Thursday 8 October with a note saying his backing was conditional and not a blank cheque, g1 reported.
Santos said in a video reported by Diário da Manhã on 9 October that he would not follow the herd and backs neither candidate. Ipespe’s fieldwork on 13 to 15 October came after these declarations, so the poll captures views once they were public.
Why Subgroup Figures Need Caution
The 2.6-point margin of error applies to the whole sample of 1,500 people, and each bloc is far smaller. Our rough arithmetic from first-round shares suggests only about 30 to 45 respondents per group, so the margin for each bloc is much wider.
Veja noted that Ipespe lumps the other candidates into an “others” group of 1% of recalled votes, with 55% for Flávio and 27% for Lula. Because Romeu Zema does not appear separately, his voters cannot be read from these tables.
What It Means for You
For holders of Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed Brazilian shares, the poll shows two forces at work. Flávio gathers most of the voters from eliminated candidates, yet his overall lead has fallen inside the margin of error.
A 2.4-point gap in valid votes cannot tell investors who will win on 25 October. Following several polls, as our poll tracker does, gives a steadier picture than one survey.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 81% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula about 20% (18 October, 2:45 a.m. ET). The Brazil presidential election event has drawn about US$187 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly after new surveys. They show what traders expect, not what voters have decided.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 81.2% · Lula 19.5% (US$187 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 20%
As of 18 October, 3:20 am ET (08:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The coverage reviewed does not say who paid for the survey, and the full Ipespe tables were not available for this article. The figures rest on Estadão Conteúdo, as published by InfoMoney and Terra, and on Veja, which agree on every number.
It is not known how many Cury, Caiado and Santos voters will turn out on 25 October, or how many undecided voters will pick a side. The next surveys before the vote will show whether these transfers hold.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where do Caiado voters go in the Ipespe poll?
Among people who say they voted for Ronaldo Caiado, 59% now choose Flávio Bolsonaro and 18% choose Lula. Another 6% plan a blank or spoiled ballot and 18% are undecided or gave no answer.
What do Cury voters say in the Ipespe poll?
Among Augusto Cury’s first-round voters, 50% choose Flávio and 31% choose Lula. Another 3% plan a blank or spoiled ballot and 17% are undecided or gave no answer.
Why are Renan Santos voters different?
Only 40% of Renan Santos voters choose Flávio and 20% choose Lula, while 32% plan a blank or spoiled ballot. That is the highest share of the three groups, so a large part of that bloc may sit out the choice between the finalists.
When was the Ipespe poll taken and how large was it?
Ipespe interviewed 1,500 voters from 13 to 15 October and published the results on Saturday 17 October. The margin of error is 2.6 points, and the survey is registered with the electoral court as BR-00223/2026.
Does the poll mean Flávio will win the runoff?
No, because his 51.2% to 48.8% lead in valid votes is inside the 2.6-point margin of error. Polls measure opinion on the days of the interviews and do not forecast the result.
Sources: InfoMoney (Estadão Conteúdo), 17 October 2026; Terra, 17 October 2026; Veja, 17 October 2026; Folha de Pernambuco, 5 October 2026; g1 Goiás, 6 October 2026; g1, 8 October 2026; Diário da Manhã, 9 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief