Ibovespa Edges Higher As Rate Hopes Offset Political Noise

Ibovespa Edges Higher As Rate Hopes Offset Political NoiseThe Ibovespa started the new week cautiously in the green, rising 0.33% to 155,277 points after a losing streak that had erased nearly 2% the previous week.

The move mirrored a global risk-on tone: Wall Street rallied hard on renewed bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again in December, with tech and AI names pulling the Nasdaq to one of its strongest sessions since May.

The friendlier mood abroad pushed US Treasury yields lower and helped the dollar slip to about R$ 5.39 against the real. At home, attention stayed firmly on monetary policy.

The Central Bank’s Focus survey trimmed 2025 inflation expectations to 4.45% and nudged the 2026 Selic projection down to 12%, reinforcing the view that disinflation is slow but intact.

Speaking at a Febraban event, Central Bank president Gabriel Galípolo stressed data dependence, said he remains unhappy with inflation expectations and repeated that the institution will use interest rates “whenever necessary,” downplaying political irritation with high borrowing costs.

The comments, combined with the global rally, flattened the local yield curve and gave breathing space to the equity market. Cyclical and domestic plays led the advance.

Homebuilder MRV and wholesaler Assaí were among the top gainers, joined by truck-leasing group Vamos, mall operator Allos and high-beta e-commerce name Magazine Luiza.

Markets Mixed as Investors Look Past Bolsonaro Shock

All five benefited from lower long-term rates and a renewed appetite for consumer and growth stories after a choppy week.

On the losing side, CSN Mineração sank after announcing a program to sell more than 53 million treasury shares, raising concerns about extra supply.

Travel operator CVC gave back recent gains, while Raízen, AZZA and Natura retreated amid profit-taking and persistent questions over leverage and margins.

Heavyweights Petrobras and Vale also slipped despite firmer oil and iron-ore prices, hurt by delays in offshore drilling contracts and lingering doubts over China’s momentum.

Banks, still digesting the liquidation of Banco Master and possible implications for the deposit insurance fund, closed mostly lower.

Technically, the index remains in a broad uptrend: daily and weekly charts show prices well above key moving averages, even as momentum indicators cool from overbought levels.

For now, investors are treating the Supreme Court’s decision to keep Jair Bolsonaro in preventive detention as largely priced in, focusing instead on whether Congress will resist pressure for extra spending that could ultimately force the Central Bank to stay restrictive for longer.

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