GUINEA · IRON ORE
Key Facts
- —The country Guinea is a West African country led by President Mamadi Doumbouya, and home to Simandou, a huge iron ore mine.
- —What happened Central bank governor Dr Karamo Kaba said on Wednesday 21 October that Simandou should pay the state about US$2.5 billion by 2040.
- —The path He put the state’s take at about US$350 million in 2026, then about US$1.5 billion a year, then about US$2.5 billion by 2040.
- —The comparison He said all other mines in Guinea pay the state about US$500 million today, so Simandou alone would match them all.
- —The central bank’s worry Kaba warned that a flood of dollars can push up prices, and said the policy rate stays at 9.50% for now.
- —The cushion He put foreign currency reserves at US$4.5 billion, up from US$1.5 billion a year earlier, or about five months of imports.
- —Still open He did not say in which year revenue reaches US$1.5 billion, or which taxes and fees the totals include.
Guinea’s central bank governor said Simandou revenue for the state should reach about US$2.5 billion by 2040, up from about US$350 million in 2026. Dr Karamo Kaba spoke in Conakry on Wednesday 21 October 2026, and the local news site Africaguinee.com reported his remarks.
For US readers, the figure shows how much cash one iron ore mine could pour into a poor country. Kaba also said the central bank will mop up excess money if prices start to rise.
What the Central Bank Governor Said
Kaba heads the Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea (BCRG), which sets interest rates and guards the Guinean franc. He spoke on the sidelines of the closing of the fifth UK and francophone Africa trade forum in Conakry, the capital.
“In 2026 we expect about US$350 million in revenue from this project,” he said, according to Africaguinee.com. He added that the state’s income would grow to about US$1.5 billion a year and reach about US$2.5 billion by 2040.
How Simandou Revenue Compares With Other Mines
Simandou holds one of the largest high-grade iron ore deposits in the world. It started operations at a ceremony on 11 November 2025, run by two partners, Rio Tinto SimFer and Winning Consortium Simandou.
Kaba said the other mining projects in Guinea pay the state about US$500 million. In his words, Simandou revenue alone will match all of them together from its first year.
Why the Central Bank Fears Too Much Cash
A large inflow of dollars can lift prices if the money is spent too fast, Kaba warned, and Simandou revenue is such an inflow. He said headline inflation rose from 3% to 6%, but core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is only about 1%.
For that reason the BCRG keeps its policy rate at 9.50%, down from 9.75% in the third quarter of 2025. It is ready to use sterilisation, meaning it pulls surplus money out of the banking system, if prices climb.
Reserves, the Franc and Export Earnings
Kaba said foreign currency reserves rose from US$1.5 billion to US$4.5 billion in a year, enough for about five months of imports. The BCRG’s own March speech put reserves at US$3.7 billion at the end of 2025 and US$4.5 billion in early 2026.
He called a stable Guinean franc a condition for foreign investors, who must be able to send profits home. The franc traded at about 8,845 to the US dollar on 22 October.
The Rule on Export Earnings and the Local Bond
The BCRG is enforcing an instruction that exporters bring home 50% of their export earnings, Kaba said. He called it a way to strengthen the country’s reserves.
Separately, the finance ministry is selling a five-year bond of 2,500 billion Guinean francs (about US$283 million) at 11% a year, Guinéenews reported. The sale is open until 23 October, and savers can subscribe from 5 million Guinean francs (about US$565).
What It Means for US Readers
Rio Tinto, listed in New York and London, is a Simandou partner, and the mine adds a new source of iron ore for steelmakers. For background, see the Rio Times Guinea explainer.
Guinea plans to spend the money under its Simandou 2040 programme, covered in the Rio Times report on the spending rules. Investors should watch the 50% export-earnings rule and the franc, because both shape how easily foreign firms move profits out.
What Is Not Known
Kaba did not say in which year the state’s take reaches US$1.5 billion, or whether the totals cover taxes, royalties and dividends together. The government has not published a year-by-year schedule for Simandou revenue.
It is also open whether Simandou revenue will stay at these levels if iron ore prices fall. The finance ministry has not said how much of the US$350 million expected in 2026 has already been paid.
More: Africa news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much will Guinea earn from Simandou by 2040?
The central bank governor said the state expects about US$2.5 billion by 2040. He gave about US$350 million for 2026 and about US$1.5 billion a year in between.
Who is Karamo Kaba?
Dr Karamo Kaba is the governor of Guinea’s central bank, which runs monetary policy and holds the foreign currency reserves. He spoke in Conakry on 21 October.
What is Simandou?
Simandou is an iron ore mine in the south-east of Guinea, linked by a railway to a new port on the Atlantic coast. It began operations in November 2025 and is run by Rio Tinto SimFer and Winning Consortium Simandou.
Could the Simandou revenue cause inflation in Guinea?
Kaba said a poorly managed inflow of money could raise prices. The central bank holds its policy rate at 9.50% and is ready to take surplus money out of the banking system.
What is the Guinean franc worth in dollars?
The Guinean franc traded at about 8,845 to the US dollar on 22 October 2026, so 1,000 francs (about US$0.11) is a small sum. The central bank says a stable franc helps attract foreign investors.
Sources: Africaguinee.com, De 350 millions à 2,5 milliards de dollars d’ici 2040: Dr Karamo Kaba dévoile les revenus attendus du Projet Simandou, 21 October 2026; BCRG, Présentation de la Loi de Finances, March 2026, March 2026; Guinéenews, Simandou 2040 bond issue, 26 September 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.
Critical Minerals in Africa
- Africa’s Critical Minerals 2026: Who Holds What and Why
- DR Congo Explained 2026, Its War, Cobalt and Politics
- Zambia Explained: The Country, Its Copper Economy, Its Politics and What to Watch
- The Lobito Corridor: A New Railway for African Copper