Global Economy Briefing: November 28, 2025

A holiday-thinned Friday still showed the same two-track economy. Europe’s disinflation mostly held but German HICP nudged higher.

France grew faster than expected in Q3. Italy eked out a small rebound. Germany’s retail and regional CPI details pointed to weak goods demand into year-end.

Asia delivered mixed signals: Japan’s housing improved and factory output rose, but forward production guides fell.

India printed strong GDP with wider fiscal slippage and a small reserve dip. Latin America’s labor pictures improved at the margin.

Canada posted a solid Q3 then a weak October flash. U.S. liquidity indicators were steady.

United States

Markets shut early. The Fed’s balance sheet ticked down to $6.552T and reserve balances slipped to $2.898T. Liquidity is steady and not a macro driver today. The read-through for risk is neutral.

Europe

France surprised on growth. Q3 GDP rose 0.5% q/q (0.9% y/y) as inflation eased (CPI −0.1% m/m; 0.9% y/y; HICP −0.2% m/m; 0.8% y/y).

Italy returned to growth at 0.1% q/q (0.6% y/y) with CPI −0.2% m/m and 1.1% y/y HICP. Germany was softer.

Retail sales fell 0.3% m/m, unemployment edged up by 1k, and land CPIs were negative on the month.

National CPI was −0.2% m/m and 2.3% y/y, yet HICP rose to 2.6% y/y. Spanish headline stayed sticky at 3.0% y/y (HICP 3.1%). Euro core for November printed 2.6% y/y.

Message: disinflation continues but not linearly; goods demand is weak; services and wages keep core sticky. Bond auctions and surveys earlier in the week suggest financing is available but not cheaper.

Canada

Q3 was better than feared. GDP rose 0.6% q/q (2.6% annualized); the GDP deflator firmed 0.8% q/q. September output grew 0.2% m/m. The October flash fell −0.3% m/m. The federal budget gap widened in September.

Takeaway: a firmer base meets a weak start to Q4. The BoC can stay patient while watching shelter and growth.

Asia-Pacific

Japan’s picture was mixed. Housing starts rose 3.2% y/y and retail strengthened (large retailers up), while industrial production gained 1.4% m/m.

But forward production guides flagged pullbacks for November–December, and construction orders fell 10.1% y/y.

Tokyo inflation held near target (core 2.8% y/y) with unemployment at 2.6% and the job ratio at 1.18. India posted strong Q2 GDP of 8.2% y/y, with bank credit up 11.4% y/y and deposits up 10.2% y/y.

The fiscal deficit widened and FX reserves slipped to $688.1B. Hong Kong liquidity cooled (M3 3.5% y/y).

Read: Japan supports a soft landing with stable prices and jobs, but factories are cautious. India’s growth is robust, yet policy must juggle financing and external cushions.

Latin America and Africa

Brazil’s unemployment fell to 5.4%. The fiscal mix was noisy: a monthly deficit, a reported primary surplus line, and debt ratios edging up (net 65.0%; gross 78.6%).

Inflation earlier in the week was contained. Mexico’s unemployment fell to 2.6% and the fiscal deficit narrowed sharply in October.

South Africa’s money and credit accelerated (M3 7.52%; private credit 7.26%), the trade surplus was R15.58B, and the monthly budget gap widened.

Read: Brazil’s labor tailwind helps consumption but fiscal anchors still need work; Mexico’s labor and fiscal prints support a cautious easing bias; South Africa’s faster money and credit argue for policy patience.

Nordics and Switzerland

Norway’s jobless rate rose to 2.1% n.s.a., while core retail grew 0.1% m/m. Switzerland’s Q3 GDP fell −0.5% q/q (0.5% y/y); reserves were stable and KOF edged up.

Takeaway: domestic demand is soft and the SNB can stay on hold, watching imported price dynamics.

What it means

The soft-landing base case remains intact. Europe shows “disinflation with wobble”: core is easing, but German HICP and Spanish headline remind us the last mile is uneven.

Growth is services-led and thin. Japan offers low-volatility support with near-target inflation and tight labor, but its factories are cautious.

India stays the global outlier on growth with a trickier fiscal-external mix. Canada’s Q3 bounce meets a weak October.

For positioning: keep a quality-duration tilt; favor service-heavy exposures over deep goods cyclicals in Europe; add selectively to Japan on stable inflation and jobs.

Maintain India allocations but watch fiscal and reserves; in LatAm, prefer names with improving labor and clean external balances while monitoring Brazil’s debt glide path.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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